South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Somerset girl]

1 hour ago, nettie said:

It's been a nice day here the sun did put in an appearance .  Off out this evening  going to the Hawk conservancy  for their Winter Woodland Lights evening  . Can't wait get to see displays with the owls.  

That sounds fab Nettie , what aclovely way to finish the weekend 

[nettie]

I booked it a couple of weeks ago and have been really looking forward to it.  Hurt my back this morning trying to get out of bed   thats not going to stop me though . Owls here I come !  

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Right I've just been in the mad thread. no one is ramping it. Most models still showing south. I'm now firmly back in the it isn't happening camp.

They aren't ramping it because most of the posters are too far north to be affected 

[Mapantz]

I took apart the radiation shield plates and the fan to give it all a clean out. Absolutely filthy! I cleaned each component one piece at a time and laid it all out in order to make sure I put it all back correctly. My brain decided to go for a walk somewhere and I completely forgot how to put it back together lol

I spent like 20 minutes looking at it and not doing anything. I got it all back together in the end! It's not particularly difficult, but I just drew a blank.

[AWD]

Latest 12z modelling so far all indictive of any PPN midweek staying out in the channel (a la Red &/or Blue lines on my earlier map), so that scenario has certainly increased a bit in probability.

A pair of Binoculars on the end of Bournemouth pier might just enable some visible snow grains though?

Edited January 14 by AWD

[festivalking]

9 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z modelling so far all indictive of any PPN midweek staying out in the channel (a la Red &/or Blue lines on my earlier map), so that scenario has certainly increased a bit in probability.

A pair of Binoculars on the end of Bournemouth pier might just enable some visible snow grains though?

Yep looks like it's over till the next cold spell now. 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

What times the next run? Also is this completely dead in the water for us now?? Could it swing back again before Weds? Clutching at straws here as for once the Isle of Wight were in the sweet spot Thanks

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, noggin said:

I am in awe of your self-restraint!

Look how many years I've been on here. I've been burnt too many times 

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

What times the next run? Also is this completely dead in the water for us now?? Could it swing back again before Weds? Clutching at straws here as for once the Isle of Wight were in the sweet spot Thanks

The only time it will be 100% dead in the water is when it’s actually happening & the radar says no!

Probabilities currently favour a “over the water & Northern France” affair currently though.

Edited January 14 by AWD

[jy]

It will snow.Pink dangling returned blue.No snow I will walk naked down Fordingbridge high St with only a strategic placed Frisbee to protect my modesty

[Alderc 2.0]

Well the cold spell delivered at least one event within 96hrs before it was downgraded. 

[festivalking]

22 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

What times the next run? Also is this completely dead in the water for us now?? Could it swing back again before Weds? Clutching at straws here as for once the Isle of Wight were in the sweet spot Thanks

ECM run starts at 6pm.  Should know about 6.20. Never say never but you would be brave to bet against it staying in the channel. 

[khodds]

More runs needed….

[mbrothers]

Still 6c here . Waiting for a frost.

[matt111]

Well we managed a few minutes of sun here but it quickly clouded over again. 

Will be a real shame if we just miss out on Wednesday. Might even be able to see if from here if it's as close of a miss as some models suggest it could be

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Yep looks like it's over till the next cold spell now. 

It's not over til it's over

[noggin]

51 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Look how many years I've been on here. I've been burnt too many times 

About the same length of time as me, then………..

[Frosty hollows]

Cold drizzle for us. Lovely 

[JimBob]

I don’t know why people suddenly think this rain/snow on Tuesday/Wednesday is suddenly going to jump 100 miles north?!   It’s now 48 hours away and the models have pretty much cross model agreement that it’s going to cause very little impact to the UK, wishful thinking from a few on this site. 

[AWD]

Latest EC 12z Det does manage to give some light snow to extreme southern coastal areas, including the IOW.  Just enough there tonight to keep one eye on the radar for members in these locations come midweek.  

For me personally, a rogue flurry managing to make it over the Welsh Hills on Thursday/Friday is the best I can hope for, with regards to snow, before normal service resumes next weekend.

Not personally bothered though, looking forward to a week of dry, cold weather and much easier dog walks in the woods whilst Spring/Summer creep ever closer.  

[festivalking]

ECM keeping the agony going as already mentioned by AWD. The system  brushing the coastline. The high resolution charts available in an hour or so will be interesting

[Ben Sainsbury]

29 minutes ago, JimBob said:

I don’t know why people suddenly think this rain/snow on Tuesday/Wednesday is suddenly going to jump 100 miles north?!   It’s now 48 hours away and the models have pretty much cross model agreement that it’s going to cause very little impact to the UK, wishful thinking from a few on this site. 

Generally, in the world of weather 100 miles really isn't much! We've seen with Spanish Plume events for example, that despite cross model agreement things can be 50+ miles further east. Instances like Wednesday, where you've got a low sliding across N France is an incredibly delicate evolution, so I'd still expect to see some changes (good or bad). As @AWD says, it's not over until it's on radar, but that's just my hopeful weather nerd brain wanting snow  

Edited January 14 by Ben Sainsbury

[AWD]

It’s also worth noting that we don’t often follow LP systems or fronts so closely and delicately.  If this was an everyday rain bearing system we wouldn’t care if it was shown 50 miles north or south on subsequent model output.

How often have we gone outside for the day, expecting dry weather only to find it starts raining?  How often then do folk come on here saying “it’s raining, I thought the forecast was for a dry day today”?

Dont get me wrong, it’s extremely unlikely to make much roads inland now, midweek, modelling is in a rough agreement of a channel transition.  However, for the likes of those in Wareham, Romsey, Gosport, Winchester, Eastleigh, Bournemouth to name but a few, it would only need a marginal and much more possible adjustment for them to see snowfall.

Thankfully, my emotional connection with snow ended years ago when I found storms more interesting.  Otherwise I’d be one of those nutters losing my hair in the MAD thread and throwing toys everywhere, blaming everyone etc.

Oh , latest 15z UKV keeps with the theme (and for what it’s worth consistency) in keeping any PPN 5 miles south of Bournemouth pier!

Edited January 14 by AWD

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, jy said:

It will snow.Pink dangling returned blue.No snow I will walk naked down Fordingbridge high St with only a strategic placed Frisbee to protect my modesty

BUT, you must post images as proof that you actually went through with it....

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, jy said:

It will snow.Pink dangling returned blue.No snow I will walk naked down Fordingbridge high St with only a strategic placed Frisbee to protect my modesty

Met Office RED warning post for Tuesday night

A Fordingbridge Dangler event predicted.

 

Edited January 14 by Dorsetbred