Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Mark Bayley]

Yep, probably the second low delivering better for us. Midlands gets a pasting. Some of the other runs less good, e.g. GFS and the GEM. I still reckon, if this is the route we go down, that lows will correct south. If so, hopefully that brings in snow showers. 

[York-snow]

1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Latest ECM is a snowfest for our region, but most likely would reduce longetivity of cold spell. 

Would be a lot of rain/sleet south of Midlands. All just speculation at this stage though.

I bet the MOD thread is in full knicker wetting mode this morning then??

[Harsh Climate]

18 minutes ago, York-snow said:

I bet the MOD thread is in full knicker wetting mode this morning then??

Couldn't have put it better myself

[Salem]

2 hours ago, York-snow said:

I bet the MOD thread is in full knicker wetting mode this morning then??

Indeed, with the usual posts complaining about the snow starved south after large swaths of the south getting lying snow yesterday.  There’s a reason it’s it’s called the mad thread

[GyDanSnow]

Trying not to get too excited with the prospect of some real wintry weather but just starting to believe we could be in for something good now, always follow the Mad thread as do enjoy reading through all the posts but find it mostly builds up high hopes and leads to huge disappointment!

Even the BBC are now starting to ramp up the prospect of real wintry weather next week too, happy days!

[Empire Of Snow]

I'd rather wait until this weekend updates or around 72h before any event. I've already expressed here a few times my preference to proper low systems/frontal events even if the risk factor is higher and the situation more marginal. Simply I don't like shower activity and chasing via the radar the trajectory of snow showers. 

That said, a snow event of 32h-48h would make me happy. Ofc this automatically writes off any chances for the south of the country but under this pattern it's impossible to have another 1963 or 1987. 

[A Face like Thunder]

I wonder whether Sara Blizzard will be presenting the local weather forecast on the Beeb any time soon. 

[The PIT]

4 hours ago, GyDanSnow said:

Trying not to get too excited with the prospect of some real wintry weather but just starting to believe we could be in for something good now, always follow the Mad thread as do enjoy reading through all the posts but find it mostly builds up high hopes and leads to huge disappointment!

Even the BBC are now starting to ramp up the prospect of real wintry weather next week too, happy days!

Well the downgrades are beginning to pile in so wouldn't be surprised too see a one proper cold snap in the end.

[Hatewarmth]

9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well the downgrades are beginning to pile in so wouldn't be surprised too see a one proper cold snap in the end.

What downgrades are you referring to. With the exception of the GFS all models lead to cold and some models especially the ECM are showing a very snowy outlook. Yes it’s a least 7 days away but it’s only the GFS that’s downgrading.

 

As long as we keep pressure high over Greenland we should be fine. There is also the possibility of a SSW later this month with will reinforce HLB. Lots to be positive about but patience is required as we are still at least a week away from any potential snow. Not trying to be argumentative just stating what the models are saying

[Empire Of Snow]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well the downgrades are beginning to pile in so wouldn't be surprised too see a one proper cold snap in the end.

I can't see any downgrades so far. It's too early though to forecast anything 6-7 days ahead. Truth is some places in Yorkshire might end with 30cm+ next week. Still too early, let's wait until the weekend. 

[Harsh Climate]

1 hour ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I can't see any downgrades so far. It's too early though to forecast anything 6-7 days ahead. Truth is some places in Yorkshire might end with 30cm+ next week. Still too early, let's wait until the weekend. 

Probably Sheffield

[Mark Bayley]

18z is actually pretty snowy for our region. Still think the ECM is closer to the mark. Interesting to see the GFS toying with an easterly in the far reaches..

[Schnee]

Certainly interesting watching things progress. I'm keeping a keen eye on it, really don't want to get stuck at a job site or on the roads in a snowstorm. Work got new company cars and I don't rate their chances in the snow - MG HS PHEV's....

I've got the 19th off. It can snow all it wants then.....

[terrier]

Well the mad thread should at least be happy this morning. Looks very snowy midlands south on this morning’s output. Should keep them southerners happy for awhile lol  

[Mikey Skins]

I can't cope in the main thread. However it always gets to the IMBY scenario the closer we get, always does. 

Southern members - its not good 

Midlands / North - its decent 

Luckily we are in the latter and there seems to be at least some agreement we are near enough in the fun zone. 

Although the UKMO has slowed its snowmobile down and drifted towards the gfs alittle its still looking really good for us.

[SouthYorks]

Another throughly miserable day with constant drizzle all morning and temps upto 3.9c.

Next week looking colder with a chance of snow, and depending on which model you’re looking at, it’s likely to fall somewhere between John ‘O Groats and Lands End!

Just picked up this Fax chart from the mod thread, which certainly looks interesting with a series of troughs heading South towards Scotland in the Northerly flow, but wondering if there might also be some precipitation on the cold front that is straddling our region at 12.00 Sunday.  Uppers initially probably too high for snow I think but wondering if there might be a chance of back edge snow.

Edited January 10 by SouthYorks

[mike57]

Not as cold as yesterday, 5c at lunchtime. The Force 4 NNE wind bringing in a good rash showers off the North Sea. Managed to avoid the worst of them at lunchtime, and some sun in between.

[Love Snow]

Been in hull myself all day lots of shower activity from the North Sea let’s hope it’s the same when the cold arrives  

[LeeSnowFan]

will never hear the end of it if its all snow down south hope we see something 

[terrier]

Think that low will trend further south as the week goes on. Personally not a bad thing as keeps us in the cold for longer. 

[SouthYorks]

GFS 12z going for significant snow for mid week.  Could just do with it being 50-100 miles further North before a further plunge of cold moving South.

 

GEM offers a different option with low missing us to the South and snow inbound from the North by the following weekend.

Edited January 10 by SouthYorks

[Mark Bayley]

Indeed, and as flagged by @Harsh Climate in the MOD thread the UKMO has a similar feature to the GEM from the North West. The ICON had something on Tuesday and thereafter after looked dry, but given the deep level of cold / instability you'd expect surprises to crop up. In regards regional preferences, i think we want the UKMO / GEM solution. Yes we miss out on the battle ground snow, but as flagged above, plenty of opportunity for systems and disturbances. 

[Hatewarmth]

2 hours ago, terrier said:

Think that low will trend further south as the week goes on. Personally not a bad thing as keeps us in the cold for longer. 

I stated the exact same half hour ago in the mod thread. Sadly for us I feel your right wrt mid weeks snow. I personally think the UKMO is best in winter especially when predicting cold spells. Also it only goes to 7 days for a reason. Basically because there is zero point in looking further.

 

As stated in the mod thread my feeling from what limited knowledge I have of reading charts is that I can’t help but think we must look NE. Yes it may be dryer in the short term but the longer this cold PATTERN is locked in for the better chance we have (especially in our area) of hitting the holy grail.

 

Memory tell me that our area MUST have a NE wind for significant and LONG LASTING snow as with frontal snow it’s gone in 24 hours. Having said all that next week does look convective so we may get one or two nice surprises as the week progresses. Just a note but nearly all our heavy snow falls come from when steamer (not forecast) come in from an active north see. Anyway just my thoughts so please feel free to disagree

[Harsh Climate]

57 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Indeed, and as flagged by @Harsh Climate in the MOD thread the UKMO has a similar feature to the GEM from the North West. The ICON had something on Tuesday and thereafter after looked dry, but given the deep level of cold / instability you'd expect surprises to crop up. In regards regional preferences, i think we want the UKMO / GEM solution. Yes we miss out on the battle ground snow, but as flagged above, plenty of opportunity for systems and disturbances. 

ECM is almost perfect for our region, not so much down south 

[yaffle]

Can't wait for Paul 'I hate snow' Hudson's forecast!