SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Jason M]

31 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Though air pressure is rising, its less important when talking about sea effect snow.

It's more about temp differential from the sea to the air, along with other factors creating instability, fetch and wind sheer.

As a long fetch of cold air flows over the north sea, the fetch consumes an enormous amount of latent energy from the warm moisture from the water into cold air. High pressure or not. In fact some of the heaviest lake effect snow I've been in in Canada happened once a high moved in. 

This further destabilizes the atmosphere, and generates convection. 

As those convective plumes develop the upward forcing increased through frictional convergence and upsloping once it hits the land.

Admittedly higher wind speed (without sheer) increases snowfall rates.

I do think this could help areas inland as the upsloping increase snowfall rates (hence seeing intensity increase on the radar a few miles inland (hitting the north downs at 200-250m asl)

This is why I used to love this set up. If the models don't show these various factors but suddenly the real weather aligns last minute, its a surprise snownanza. Alternatively it can work the other way of course. 

Here's hoping it's the former for the SE tomorrow. It's never going to be epic but I'm sure a few cm's would please most  

Air pressure will always play a very big part. If it had been just 'high' at around 1025 then we'd have been fine, but by tomorrow we will be under an intense area of high pressure. This will cap off the showers as it stops the clouds from growing upwards. Along a convergence line you will do better (and one is forecast) but even with this potential will be very limited. 1-2cm in very lucky spots IMHO. For most, a few flurries.

[MAF]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Air pressure will always play a very big fart. If it had been just 'high' at around 1025 then we'd have been fine, but by tomorrow we will be under an intense area of high pressure. This will cap off the showers as it stops the clouds from growing upwards. Along a convergence line you will do better (and one is forecast) but even with this potential will be very limited. 1-2cm in very lucky spots IMHO. For most, a few flurries.

Corrected it for you

night all

[throwoff]

BBC fancying snow for Medway from about 1am on

[Tn9]

4 hours ago, Challock Weather said:

They just hate the fact that the SE does well for snow in an E -NE'ly

it doesn't though, not always, its so hit and miss they would not get it ,nw wind  ,we sit here with  half hearted cold with blue skies mostly, northerly, unless there is a front or a disturbance,not much ,clear skies and a  frost  etc ,what does me is ,in them scenario's, northern France ,Holland ,jersey  etc get showers ,we are trying to get  blood out of stone getting precipitation out of a north easterly ,yet every where else its bobs your uncle ,everywhere where there is an on shore  theres usually showers ,bar us  

[pinball wizard]

Should start to see first few showers cropping up on radar in the next few hours 

[BLS]

BBC seem to be underplaying this a little they could look silly tomorrow  

[Hotspur62]

Currently 1.2 degrees outside and the cold 850s will be moving in overnight and tomorrow.My current thinking is SE London,NW Kent and E Surrey may well get 1-2cms tomorrow but other parts of Sussex,Surrey and maybe Essex could well get a light covering.As ever with these type of situations it will be a Nowcast sort of situation but good luck to everyone in this thread who want snow,and if you get any send in the pictures.I read earlier that some of our Northern friends have made some unkind comments re possible snow in the SE-Never understood that personally as when there is a chance of snow anywhere in the U.K. I just hope everyone gets in the actionEach to their own I suppose.

[throwoff]

Going to hit the hay, I generally wake up a couple of times a night so if I see snow in the early hours I’ll be back!

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Currently 1.2 degrees outside and the cold 850s will be moving in overnight and tomorrow.My current thinking is SE London,NW Kent and E Surrey may well get 1-2cms tomorrow but other parts of Sussex,Surrey and maybe Essex could well get a light covering.As ever with these type of situations it will be a Nowcast sort of situation but good luck to everyone in this thread who want snow,and if you get any send in the pictures.I read earlier that some of our Northern friends have made some unkind comments re possible snow in the SE-Never understood that personally as when there is a chance of snow anywhere in the U.K. I just hope everyone gets in the actionEach to their own I suppose.

4C still here, allegedly. But, anyway, epicness (almost certainly not a word) will soon be upon us: the oracles have spoken! 

[Kentspur]

Most of tomorrow im working outside in Dartford area but back home after interesting my phone weathers now finally showing snow in Dartford atleast wintry mix for back home

Edited January 7 by Kentspur

[Hotspur62]

And back in the MAD thread all is well again after latest GFS run shows a very wintry outlook from 14th Jan.TBF the runs from this afternoon and tonight have reverted what they were showing about 2/3 days ago then it started going Pete tong till this morning and now we are back to square one!!As I mentioned on that thread I am due to fly out on 18th from Gatwick so hopefully I can get out and then the snow will come for you all

[Kentspur]

BBC forecast now mentioning settling snow even at low levels in the SE on latest forecasts with Helen Willets I notice!

[lassie23]

13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

BBC forecast now mentioning settling snow even at low levels in the SE on latest forecasts with Helen Willets I notice!

blimey they usually wait until it starts snowing before they do that lol

[Mark wheeler]

5 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Surprised to see some SE bashing and p!ss taking about possible snow tomorrow elsewhere. At the end of the day I'm happy for anyone who might experience snow as its rare as non corrupt politicians these days.

It's an event tomorrow as there's a chance of snow and a chance of settling snow for some.

Who wouldn't get excited for that on a site where 90% of people are hunting for snow  

Still looks like anything before Monday night is a bonus with the chance of some snow for heaviliy populated areas.

And as experience tells us sometimes it surprises us all with heavy snow and sometimes it doesn't. That's the exciting bit (and admittedly disappointing) if it doesn't work out).

 

Yea , I was taken a little aback when the banter started at my posts , I just shrugged it off but in truth I would love to see snow falling tomorrow and I have changed my day off to tomorrow at work so I can see it happen, if it does . Nutter I know .

 

[Darkcloud]

18 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

BBC forecast now mentioning settling snow even at low levels in the SE on latest forecasts with Helen Willets I notice!

What heights are suggested as low levels? Something I've always wondered! Obviously elevation is always a huge benefit  but is there a cut off point for heights?

[Neilsouth]

The North Sea around the south east is filling in with cloud now from being clear at 10pm to filled at 12. Now it's just a waiting game to see if it produces perception into the south east!  See - https://www.sat24.com/en-gb

[ChillyJuju]

Temperature
2.0°C

Humidity
79%

Dewpoint
-1.3°C

Wind Chill
0.8°C

Wind
E

 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

The North Sea around the south east is filling in with cloud now from being clear at 10pm to filled at 12. Now it's just a waiting game to see if it produces perception into the south east!  See - https://www.sat24.com/en-gb

The moisture should start coming in about 2/3am i.e RH

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

The moisture should start coming in about 2/3am i.e RH

 

More weather chart fun! ICON shows the showers starting around 6am onwards, which I guess would fit in well with the area of precipitation moving out of Europe as well. As seen in the second image! Fascinating

[Neilsouth]

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

What's not true? It was sleeting here, and a few flakes earlier too 

The radar for here lol, the light blue stuff is nothing. Dark blue just rain so far.

[ChillyJuju]

So it begins

Temperature
-0.2°C

Humidity
84%

Dewpoint
-2.6°C

Wind Chill
-0.2°C

Wind
ENE

 

    

 

  

[Mcconnor8]

Precipitation heading into the far South East already looks more than any of the models had for this early in the night, might be marginal between sleet or snow until some of the colder upper temperatures arrive with the lower dew points especially nearer the coastlines as usual.

Don't want to sound like a ramper but with the impressive uppers and still okay SSTs this could actually be a decent event for a good few once the day is done especially given what we have been working with in recent years.

Edited January 8 by Mcconnor8

[Retron]

2 hours ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Precipitation heading into the far South East already looks more than any of the models had for this early in the night, might be marginal between sleet or snow until some of the colder upper temperatures arrive with the lower dew points especially nearer the coastlines as usual.

No marginality at all here - it's just rain! Much warmer than I hoped for, too, just above 5C and with the dewpoint going positive each time it rains.

I'm on the Isle of Sheppey, so in prime position for rain from the North Sea... here's hoping it'll turn to snow later as the colder air digs in more and the winds veer ENE'ly.

Edited January 8 by Retron

[BLS]

Just had quite a heavy rain shower here