Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[CoventryWeather]

24 minutes ago, Hathers said:

Afternoon guys. 
Any chance of some more Cheshire gap streamers overnight? 
Nice surprise last night to see some snow falling. 

Seems unlikely, but there's a slight risk as winds turn briefly NW early night.. the Arpege shows a few showers around 6/7 I believe on the 6z (might have been 0z), icon also shows a risk early morning too.

Someone mentioned on the NW thread that the Arpege was the best model this morning, picked up a few showers so seems to be a reliable model perhaps.

Edited January 15 by CoventryWeather

[Hathers]

14 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Seems unlikely, but there's a slight risk as winds turn briefly NW early night.. the Arpege shows a few showers around 6/7 I believe on the 6z (might have been 0z), icon also shows a risk early morning too.

Someone mentioned on the NW thread that the Arpege was the best model this morning, picked up a few showers so seems to be a reliable model perhaps.

Thank you. Best to just keep an eye of the radar to see if anything pops up. 

[Arctic Hare]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Glad to see that some in the north west of our patch got a cm.

Solihull (here) woke up to a fine layer of grapel, which  had drifted  down the rooves into gutters, but was still 'laying' on the sheltered rubbish bins, etc.

As people above have reported this Arctic air  is brilliant to look at. A few flakes in it would be perfection.

MIA

Same sight here in Bewdley this morning. A mere dusting that didn't last that long with the sun out (not complaining about that!) but a pleasant surprise anyway.

[BarometerCat]

GFS 12zsnow chart for Weds

 

Outside chance then for East Mids. 

And Aperge for West Mids tomorrow (and maybe East mids)

Aperge vs GFS then - it's on!

 

[MattStoke]

Arpege gives a good dumping of snow tomorrow morning and Thursday

[Gord]

 A question for those more knowledgable.

In the past, when a low pressure has slided to our south, the winds above the low pressure go easterly here as the low moves though while spinning anti clockwise.

I'm assuming it's still too far south to produce sea effect showers from the North Sea on it's northern flank? Is this what happened on the 1st Feb 2009 set up was like this when we saw a lot of snow move in across our region from the Wash? Were we in an easterly pattern rather than a northerly then anyway? Can't remember! I remember parts of the south having huge amounts of snow...was that a system sliding through?

I know nothing like this has been modelled or forecast...but I guess my question is, how far north does the low have to get for this to become a possibility?

Please forgive my ignorance and please feel free to correct or shoot down any misunderstandings I have!

(And yes, I understand that the position of the low, the angle of the easterly winds and how strong they are are all factors...and we were incredibly lucky in Feb 2009...but it did get me wondering.)

Edited January 15 by Gord

[Metwatch]

34 minutes ago, Gord said:

 A question for those more knowledgable.

In the past, when a low pressure has slided to our south, the winds above the low pressure go easterly here as the low moves though while spinning anti clockwise.

I'm assuming it's still too far south to produce sea effect showers from the North Sea on it's northern flank? Is this what happened on the 1st Feb 2009 set up was like this when we saw a lot of snow move in across our region from the Wash? Were we in an easterly pattern rather than a northerly then anyway? Can't remember! I remember parts of the south having huge amounts of snow...was that a system sliding through?

I know nothing like this has been modelled or forecast...but I guess my question is, how far north does the low have to get for this to become a possibility?

Please forgive my ignorance and please feel free to correct or shoot down any misunderstandings I have!

(And yes, I understand that the position of the low, the angle of the easterly winds and how strong they are are all factors...and we were incredibly lucky in Feb 2009...but it did get me wondering.)

February 2009 had strong easterly winds which brought lake effect type snow as cold air moved over a warmer North Sea, bit like end of Feb 2018. The low was quite far south with high pressure over Scandi. The low then moved north and I think brought more snow to many areas, especially the south / east. When lows slide through the channel but doesn't reach enough north to affect the south, not much showers form over the North sea either I don't think like this Weds, winds aren't strong enough.

Met Office article on the event: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2009/early-february-2009-snowfalls---met-office.pdf

Nice post on the event as well:

 

Edited January 15 by Metwatch

[Gord]

Brilliant answer and a lot to go through there. That'll keep me busy, thank you.

One of those situations where a Scandi High can help us out then.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Hathers said:

Afternoon guys. 
Any chance of some more Cheshire gap streamers overnight? 
Nice surprise last night to see some snow falling. 

Thurs best chance on this

[Ali1977]

I expect some big changes over the next few days in FI charts, and another chase on the cards - and on the back of an SSW I expect something much better for all the U.K.

[MattStoke]

Models increasing snow shower risk tomorrow morning.

UKV:

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Thurs best chance on this

Indeed. Might actually be able to salvage a covering from this cold spell.

[sheikhy]

Ooohh this is gettin interesting now!!!some of those streamers from tonight onward seem to get well into the east mids aswell

[Snowy L]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ooohh this is gettin interesting now!!!some of those streamers from tonight onward seem to get well into the east mids aswell

Itv weather having none of it.

[MattStoke]

I don’t pay attention to tv forecasts anymore. They so often fail to mention snow risks here.

[CoventryWeather]

49 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Models increasing snow shower risk tomorrow morning.

UKV:

considering the UKV often underdoes convection then perhaps a chance of a decent covering..

Edited January 15 by CoventryWeather

[markw2680]

It would be nice but tbh Iv lost all faith and hope in model watching now 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

It would be nice but tbh Iv lost all faith and hope in model watching now 

Oh Mark have a day off its the middle of January lol 

[markw2680]

21 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Oh Mark have a day off its the middle of January lol 

Would much rather is be end of may now lad ready for summer, had enough of model watching done it for too long and rarely anything comes of it other than disappointment 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Would much rather is be end of may now lad ready for summer, had enough of model watching done it for too long and rarely anything comes of it other than disappointment 

When HLB comes off! 

[Metwatch]

Just now, Don said:

When HLB comes off! 

Always April onwards or at times March, 2021 finest example

[Midlands Ice Age]

Latest radar shows that streamers are setting up over the top of N  Ireland and thru towards the Isle of Man, then heading straight towards the central Midlands for a typical Cheshire gap streamer.

Temp now at -3.2c already and rapidly going lower.

Wil  we see these streamers reach the central  Midlands?

MIA

Also snow showers breaking out around Wales and particularly North Wales in the last 30 mins. 

Edited January 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[markw2680]

24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Latest radar shows that streamers are setting up over the top of N  Ireland and thru towards the Isle of Man, then heading straight towards the central Midlands for a typical Cheshire gap streamer.

Temp now at -3.2c already and rapidly going lower.

Wil  we see these streamers reach the central  Midlands?

MIA

Also snow showers breaking out around Wales and particularly North Wales in the last 30 mins. 

If this happens I’m sure I’ll be all for winter again for few days lol

[sheikhy]

Winds have veered northwest!!!

[Don]

After the dusting during early hours of this morning, I don't think anything will make its way to me tonight.

 

Edited January 15 by Don