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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Worth noting the gfs is feeding quite cold air in to the South of the high. Its quite a bit colder than the 06z run!! Frosty nights for sure down South

image.thumb.png.8f900d284bfce979998d2df498ccc715.png

The irony is that it could be colder nights further north even though the colder 850hpa air is further south because of the slight breeze will keep temperatures dropping  too low in the south. In the north under still conditions will favour lower night temperatures all dependent on cloud cover though. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
51 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If UKMO has called it then that would be the most incredible feat for the model.

It looks so complex 120 - 144 ifcthe model was correct last night then it has trumped the rest...

 

Not really. Only has to beat the ECM

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Dennis Accomplished

Dennis

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Indeed - I would love to know if that split up at 50 hPa and 30 hPa is opening up wide on this run - I think that feature might be important for opening the door to high latitudes.  Don’t think we can see those charts for the GEM unfortunately.  

gfs12 split 50hpa 

image.thumb.png.e5ee32e9441e2546880de94b089a6f33.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Alexis said:

That's the old run. New one is 6-7pm.

I know that but it was compared to UKMO as a uk high 

Edited by winterof79
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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted

I must say I'm a bit dissapointed by the UK high scenario. We'll see if it does come to fruition though 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

It’s been fascinating watching the output get to day 6 over the last week or so.😄

 

Fascination level just about to go up a notch or 2.😄👌

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Not enough vertical to the initial ridge .

It’s  not a disaster given some of the crud that could be dished out by the models but it’s a bit meh in all honesty .

Having to wait for the models to retrogress the high without a decent first course seems rather stingy ! 

Over  to the ECM ! 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Super GEM its on the move

image.thumb.png.f4bfd61292a544b3965c57f059180d7c.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Over to the Labrador heights building in - gonna be an epic FI 

IMG_2232.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

WOW that's some NH profile,...i mean just look at it again👀🤩

GEM 240...

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.d25a5544fb8590b662841e73ed9da43b.png

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s been fascinating watching the output get to day 6 over the last week or so.😄

 

Fascination level just about to go up a notch or 2.😄👌

Has it, I thought it was quite the borefest!! Though I see what you mean as the charts were changing every day. A uk high looks safe bet now, equally though it does look keen to move off soon after...

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
4 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

Some beauties still been shown in gfs assembles, here's my favourite

GFSP18EU06_330_1(1).thumb.png.1bbcbb45b6646025aa169353fd0b51b2.pngGFSP18EU06_330_2.thumb.png.79daec92ead7b5e143726afc6e94a004.pngGFSP18EU06_324_5.thumb.png.7a054bd3adb83d026cc2cb7870ba76cd.png

That 15th date again!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

That 15th date again!

 

Wasn't it the 8th originally? I mean I do hope the high does move North/North West! However I'd also hope for some dry weather! UKMO deffo looking meh compared to even this morning

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted

If the GEM is correct then it certainly tallies with the UKMO text forecast where the interest was always going into the second week of January. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is the period I’ve been keen on! Lovely that!

Yes Scott, sometimes wonder what planet people are on, ens W2 did go a bit flat yesterday but overnights (particularly eps) have massively bucked that trend.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Wasn't it the 8th originally? I mean I do hope the high does move North/North West! However I'd also hope for some dry weather! UKMO deffo looking meh compared to even this morning

The 7th 8th was the when the ridge looked to be a possibility.  First seen as a potential by gfs on the 22nd of December.

IMG_0477.png

Edited by That ECM
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Wasn't it the 8th originally? I mean I do hope the high does move North/North West! However I'd also hope for some dry weather! UKMO deffo looking meh compared to even this morning

Nope, 8th was likely the technical SSW date (if we would have got one)

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Short 06z EPS for London....

ens_image.thumb.png.0eb83a4919824dcdc7160216a810387d.png

those NE'ly's have gained momentum too.

eps_windrichting_kanspluim_06260.thumb.png.1c8c0c24c554b866c3f634d3441189a9.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

The disastrous  🙂 UK run ends at 168 

image.thumb.png.7b8697bcb7bf4bfa07f448034bdfd3ee.png

That's ok as we all know tomorrow it will be in a different position  

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Hotspur62 Seasoned

Hotspur62

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
Posted

UKMO latest run just a U.K. HIGH and about 150-200 miles further south than previous 2 runs.It just shows what a small adjustment can make to possibilty of wintry showers in E & SE or just dry and frosty.Knife edge stuff but tbh I just would be happy with sun and frost after another deluge coming for us again down here in the next 18-24 hours.Getting on for 3 months of this pattern of pretty wet weather(it started here on 13th October !,)

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Wasn't it the 8th originally? I mean I do hope the high does move North/North West! However I'd also hope for some dry weather! UKMO deffo looking meh compared to even this morning

The 8th was the date for a pattern change from the week and windy weather. Signposted by a big rise in momentum and the following week with lag was the most impactful week. All backed up by the met

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Popular Post
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes Scott, sometimes wonder what planet people are on, ens W2 did go a bit flat yesterday but overnights (particularly eps) have massively bucked that trend.

I’ve had to bite my tongue reading some of the knee jerk comments but I guess it’s part of this forum! All the ensembles always looked good for this period but too many follow operationals and operatonals from an awful GFS

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

The UKMO adds insult to injury by taking the main cold pool to the east at day 7 and throws a few scraps to the UK .

The upstream pattern is flattening out . Thankfully the UKMO day 7 hardly ever verify .

Overall an evening which promised a weekend at the Hilton on Hyde Park has now been downgraded to the Premier Inn which admittedly is better than a crummy B and B in Skegness but we really don’t want to find out what’s on the breakfast menu !

As for the GEM its later outputs have less chance of verifying than my diet attempts !

Edited by nick sussex
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO adds insult to injury by taking the main cold pool to the east at day 7 and throws a few scraps to the UK .

The upstream pattern is flattening out . Thankfully the UKMO day 7 hardly ever verify .

Overall an evening which promised a weekend at the Hilton on Hyde Park has now been downgraded to the Premier Inn which admittedly is better than a crummy B and B in Skegness but we really don’t want to find out what’s on the breakfast menu !

As for the GEM m it’s later outputs have less chance of verifying than my diet attempts !

Amuse-bouche has not been delivered but let’s see what is coming for the main course.😄

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