Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

What time is it on mate? Sorry mods for the off topic post!

9PM channel 5 

[sheikhy]

Well that was just a ridiculous ecm in th3e end!!!such a shame ukmo backtracked slightly BUT could easily shift back in the morning!!!

[Bricriu]

I might have to toast the ECM output tonight. Let's hope it's not an outlier.

[Ali1977]

Let’s hope the op has ens support. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I might have to toast the ECM output tonight. Let's hope it's not an outlier.

Indeed.

A few more hurdles to jump starting with clusters and EC 46 ..

I've a sneaky feeling there might be sensational developments tonight..

[nick sussex]

The differences between the models in the short to medium term are very small on a global scale .

When you’re dealing with a ne or east flow it only needs small changes to have a large impact .

For this reason after of course the excitement of the ECM time to calm down! 

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the ECM is correct we are on the cusp of a 2 week or more big freeze - I reckon, maybe much longer. A rare thing!! 

Let's hope so, as the longer it sustains  the more likely others will get in on the action too. If we manage to get a robust high into Greenland, a Northerly would come surely come at some point 

[northwestsnow]

This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..

Really hope it comes off...

[Met4Cast]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..

Really hope it comes off...

I hope we get something from it, this is exhausting 

[Chesil View]

Nice to see the ecm upgrading as the actual events come into range. Let's hope we see a continuation on the 00z.

Final frame suggests northwest retrogression with energy dipping southeastwards towards Iberia.

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..

Really hope it comes off...

Yup. It's fantastic to have  a new years day whereby we are potentially  on the cusp of a decent to possibly epic cold spell in the heart of winter for once. It's a rare thing these days

Edited January 1 by Bricriu

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

As this is all still well in FI I'm usually loth to comment (T90 is about where I start to get interested), but given the hysteria in here I thought I'd post the ECMWF Graphcast Google AI take on this (and I believe this model has been verifying better than any of the 'big 3' recently). Probably useful to view these with one eye on the latest UKMO output:

          

So as some people have already pointed out, there's at least an evens chance this upcoming spell is a UK high setup, so cold/foggy, but mostly dry. And after that, the most common evolution is a south-easterly sink. Nothing decided yet, but a little early for euphoria/hysteria I'd have thought.

[LRD]

MOGREPS 12z ensembles for London

Suggests a pretty cold weekend but maybe with a high starting to sink over us into the middle of next week... hence the rise in 850s. We'd probably see hard frosts and maybe fog though, even with the higher 850s

And it doesn't mean to say there won't be retrogression of that high towards Iceland and Greenland towards the weekend of 13th/14th 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..

Really hope it comes off...

It's looking at least a dry and lengthy cold spell in my opinion.if something like the ECM Comes off it turns into a severe cold spell maybe historic!

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..

Really hope it comes off...

I actually can't remember the last cold spell in January!! 2009 was Christmas week and 2010 was late November going by memory.... are we going right back to the 80s for sustained cold in Jan

[Captain Shortwave]

The only difference really is that the ECM gets the high a little further north in the 5-6 day range, hence the cold air reaching the UK properly and bringing the risk of some snow showers to parts (Eastern areas of course favoured). Not much in the models out to day 7, just that we could end up with a UK high or with the high centred just to the north of the UK. 
The outlook looks cold regardless as I suspect even the flatter solutions will end up calm with frost and fog becoming extensive. The trouble is we don’t really want to sit around for several days hoping the UK high will migrate in a favourable manner.

Worth noting that whilst the UKMO isn’t as quick, it will get there eventually;

 

Cold air advecting south west and high pressure should centre itself north of the UK, however the solution is slower than the ECM.

Edited January 1 by Captain Shortwave

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

Hence the "anything that falls will be snow" line from the MET

Hmmmm, they didn’t quite put it like that 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

MOGREPS 12z ensembles for London

Suggests a pretty cold weekend but maybe with a high starting to sink over us into the middle of next week... hence the rise in 850s. We'd probably see hard frosts and maybe fog though, even with the higher 850s

And it doesn't mean to say there won't be retrogression of that high towards Iceland and Greenland towards the weekend of 13th/14th 

MOGREPS is actually broadly supportive if a more amplified high bringing in an easterly!

[Kasim Awan]

500hpa heights are irrelevant in terms of getting streamers going, as long as we can get them under 550mb, the light winds and very cold upper air in themselves are enough to produce localized sharp streamer activity and very high snowfall rates on the ECM12Z. Granted the streamers wont be as widespread compared to if heights were lower - lower heights tend to increase the extent of streamers such as February 2nd 2009 by producing a larger convection field. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

MOGREPS is actually broadly supportive if a more amplified high bringing in an easterly!

That's yesterday's 12z suite isn't it?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

MOGREPS is actually broadly supportive if a more amplified high bringing in an easterly!

Some absolute peaches in those stamps

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

 If ever there was a chart to get you in the mood to watch the big snow of 47 on channel 5 tonight, that is it!

My dad was 10 in Swansea.  He told me over the years about that winter and the depth of the snows

 

BFTP

[Daniel*]

EPS 168hrs… clearly the op is further north with ridge and less supported.

it’s an improvement on 00z gained more height so we can work on this…

Edited January 1 by Daniel*

[Metwatch]

Certainly no arguing with the ECM det tonight, but given there's disagreement with other models and their ensembles personally i'm not getting too excited as of tonight.

However small changes with regards to the wave breaking in the Atlantic can lead to bigger differences downstream, so to get from the GFS or UKMO 12z solution to closer to the ECM, it wouldn't take much. Either way it is turning colder, and even if we end up with the northern UK high set up instead frosts and fog would become a common occurence, along with a nice respite from recent flooding issues.

Edited January 1 by Metwatch

[mulzy]

The lack of positive tilt at day 5 on the ECM was the clincher.  Once we had crossed that hurdle, the rest followed.  All other models except ICON has a positive tilt so caveat emptor.