Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Derecho said:

One thing I've noticed about the ens is that the -5C uppers on some members are moving south as early as Friday in a cyclonic airmass. Could spring a few surprises with some luck.

However the main point is the quicker this colder air comes in, the more likely we will end up with energy going under the high.

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Will only take one slack enough disturbance and someone could luck out 

[Allseasons-Si]

Here she comes,...now this would tie in with the EPS ens,...watch

Edited January 1 by Allseasons-Si
typo/added chart

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

rare ……and incredible cold to plunge SOUTH

 

BFTP

Edited January 1 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[seabreeze86]

The holy grail is about to be unleashed by the pub run 

Vortex in tatters 

[geordiekev]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

A nice FI

Yip if we can tap into the cold oop North now. 

[January Snowstorm]

The control is much colder in the reliable (156 hrs). It's very close to ECM here....

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The control is much colder in the reliable (156 hrs). It's very close to ECM here....

This is what we should be watching not la la land on the operational 

[ITSY]

My god that end of low res is incredible Synoptics. 

meanwhile the control does its best ECM impression in high res. 

such fascinating watching! 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Aren’t the green contour lines the important ones?  Get less pronounced as we go 8-14 days

 

BFTP

The 8-14 rarely shows as marked a response as the 6-10 does. But with both over the past week building the same pattern it would be most unusual if they turn out not to be what the 500 mb charts will actually show about 5-8 days from now and for 2 weeks or so. Don't ask me what happens after that but I would be surprised if the pattern is much altered for, stick my neck out, at least a 5-7 further days.

[geordiekev]

Come to Daddy

[mountain shadow]

December 2010 redux incoming.

[seabreeze86]

GEFS slowly but surely pushing the high further north 

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes this beautiful isn't it.

[geordiekev]

[Ali1977]

Control at day 6

Edited January 1 by Ali1977

[January Snowstorm]

The control is what's important, almost a carbon of ECM. Bitterly cold with snow showers in the South

[Frigid]

I just know someone's gonna mention 'west based NAO' 

What a run.. a far cry from what we saw yesterday. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 8-14 rarely shows as marked a response as the 6-10 does. But with both over the past week building the same pattern it would be most unusual if they turn out not to be what the 500 mb charts will actually show about 5-8 days from now and for 2 weeks or so. Don't ask me what happens after that but I would be surprised if the pattern is much altered for, stick my neck out, at least a 5-7 further days.

Thanks John for reply and your great experienced insight…very informative….HNY to you.  

 

BFTP

[geordiekev]

Just now, Frigid said:

I just know someone's gonna mention 'west based NAO' 

What a run.. a far cry from what we saw yesterday. 

More interested in the link up a la EC control earlier

[Scott Ingham]

The consistency around the 15th of this month for true Greenland Heights is now something to behold and it is THIS period that can deliver significant and substantial cold and snow! Is this the 5th time I’ve mentioned this today?

[Ali1977]

Cusp of an extremely prolonged big freeze ️

[geordiekev]

It's rare in hen's teeth that these come off but to see several models showing the split. Just wow

[Optimus Prime]

Extraordinary warmth entering Greenland;

[Singularity]

So GFS decided to give us a run finish to the day.

When the MJO crosses phase 3 (eastern Indian Ocean) during an El Niño event, historical composites suggest a window of opportunity for a -NAO pattern to establish soon after. Seems reasonable to presume that the SSW, even if only minor, is helping to realise that potential.

Not saying it’s absolutely going to happen on approach to mid-Jan, but I can see how it could.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So are we seeing a SSW Event or not?

 

BFTP

[Ice Day]

Things are looking rosy, to say the least.  The 18z mean at 186hrs is absolutely excellent.

That's a strong day 8 signal

The last few winters have been pretty much restricted to day 10 chases, this seems somewhat different.  If tomorrow maintains the momentum, we can really start getting excited!

 

Edited January 1 by Ice Day