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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gem looks decent should retrogress to Greenland from here.

gem-0-150.png

It would be great if the ECM followed this tonight.

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

GEM is great

GFS looks a bit 'meh'. Scottish high looks like it will be dragged south by the Azores High. Very frosty, especially in the north, though

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The difference between the 06z GFS and 12z GFS early on is tiny but makes a big difference, every mile of amplification we can squeeze out of this high now is important. 

Good GEM/UKM. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

gfs could go early here at 180 for retrogression

GFS will be awesome - all roads lead to cold. Game still very much on 👌

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted (edited)

Yes at 192 GFS finally gets undercut. This model really struggles with a jet lower than the UK.

Only one way the high is going on GEM. Hello Greenland. You have to love thermo dynamics, if you look at the atmosphere as a fluid, it can be read in the charts so much easier.

GFS going same way as GEM only a couple of days later.

Edited by warrenb
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)

 

image.thumb.png.b70f8b400dbc2732c82604605ef4b3dd.png

This little beauty has created mayhem as it crossed us, rain of recent days has been dreadful, Banbury shown on the recent Beeb forecast.

Current conditions but also model output

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on. There is a thread open for today's storm.
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
6 minutes ago, LRD said:

GEM is great

GFS looks a bit 'meh'. Scottish high looks like it will be dragged south by the Azores High. Very frosty, especially in the north, though

GFS - Really? looks like retrogression i.e. moving NW IMHO

GFSOPNH12_210_1.thumb.png.a50d5baf7d6cbc76fe9115a0062e4f43.png

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Yes at 192 GFS finally gets undercut. This model really struggles with a jet lower than the UK.

Only one way the high is going on GEM. Hello Greenland. You have to love thermo dynamics, if you look at the atmosphere as a fluid, it can be read in the charts so much easier.

It is a fluid.

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

I'm getting a bit nervous, that we could end up with a Southerly as time moves on fingers crossed we stay in a easterly regime.

24011012_0212.gif

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.bbb12194b2dbc30e039f586ff24f1286.png

This could end up good...............................could 

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

It is a fluid.

You know that and I know that, but many people don't see it that way, or read it that way.

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

So if I've got this right UKMO 144 > GEM 144 > UKMO 96 > GFS 164 > ALL 0z.

Roll on the ECM 😜

I'm just happy there's HP milling about for now. Further runs required

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'm getting a bit nervous, that we could end up with a Southerly as time moves on fingers crossed we stay in a easterly regime.

24011012_0212.gif

 

 

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.bbb12194b2dbc30e039f586ff24f1286.png

This could end up good...............................could 

As long the high doesn't go too far to the North West in the end 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I don't like the tendency for the high to link with the Mediterranean high.

Soggy bottom, highs tend to sink that way when they link up, Icon hinted at this so must be watched 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Good illustration of where the high sits and any chance of  potential showers. 

IMG_0718.png

IMG_0717.gif

IMG_0716.png

This shows that there is agreement on location and strenth of the initial High.

The experience on the ground, at that time, depends on the shape of the High and the surface flow direction associated with it.
That will probably keep changing over the next few days.

However, a High like this would be the main course in most winters, but this time it's beginning to look like it will only be an appetiser!

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
Just now, warrenb said:

Saying that, GFS could go west based here.

This was the danger on last night's  GFS op run. 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.021ef4a601717ec8c7877381780232fe.png

So different to the 6z, just another version.

Not concerned...............yet

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Seeing the theme here..ecm improves gfs gets worse..ukmo improves ecm gets worse...I swear down these companies are in competition with one another and deliberately go out on a limb to bring different solutions to one another just see who gets its correct.

Gem again like last night looks fab. No backtrack from the met and some very important ens coming up this evening. Get ready for a thread shredder when I post em..you think Kirkcaldy post was long...you ain't seen nothing yet 🤣

gemnh-0-222.png

giphy.gif

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Why is it called fi?

IMG_0720.png

IMG_9906.png

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