Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[January Snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So you trust the uppers at day 10 ?   

 

BFTP

Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours

Seas are still warm around our shores

Edited January 4 by January Snowstorm

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours

Can I be blunt . The JMA is a garbage  model. Really just ignore its ramblings regardless of what it shows .

Edited January 4 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours

Seas are still warm around our shores

Plenty of runs have shown colder again.  And that’s just 4 days away

 

-8s for SE

 

BFTP

Edited January 4 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

Hmm hopefully 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is bloody ridiculous now...more strat weakening 

Edited January 4 by MATTWOLVES 3

[That ECM]

For the nervous- we are 4 days away from getting T216 down to T120. 
 

Sleep well. 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

Unfortunately in this set up the NW will be bone dry and have a Fohn effect….I’m sorry pal

 

BFTP

[Mcconnor8]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Plenty of runs have shown colder again.  And that’s just 4 days away

 

-8s for SE

 

BFTP

 

UKV has -10 as well, if anything the uppers have been upgraded the last couple of days.

Edited January 4 by Mcconnor8

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can I be blunt . The JMA is a garbage  model. Really just ignore its ramblings regardless of what it shows .

What you say Gaijin 外人 !

[MJB]

38 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

GEFS12z P01 and P10 are two examples of profiles that stop cold weather taking hold beyond Week 1:

I would be pleased to see such options removed in forthcoming outputs.

what do the other 32 suggest ?

[Big Gally]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

 

UKV has -10 as well, if anything the uppers have been upgraded the last couple of days.

[Catacol]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think I saw underwhelmed, disappointing when describing EC det..

Wow the bar must be like stratospheric in some homes !!!

Yep. There are some extremely half empty comments in here this evening. This is EC 240

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K.  north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures. As an overall pattern what more do folk wish to see?

[The Enforcer]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

what do the other 32 suggest ?

You can find them in other posts.

[MJB]

8th - 15th 

15th - 22nd

22nd -29th

29th - 5th 

5th - 12th 

12th - 19th 

Not too bad 

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Yep. There are some extremely half empty comments in here this evening. This is EC 240

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K.  north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures. As an overall pattern what more do folk wish to see?

Plus that shard of vortex in Canada will stop the high migrating west 

More chance of it drifting north in time, which creates more battleground situations.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Catacol said:

Yep. There are some extremely half empty comments in here this evening. This is EC 240

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K.  north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures. As an overall pattern what more do folk wish to see?

I have literally no idea lol..

EC 46 though...

 

[Kentspur]

24 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Mike will.do a better job of these clusters but the signal for Blocking is sublime..

@Mike Poole thanks Mike didn't realise you had already done them.

Looks like S/SE especially most at risk there to me in 1st cluster on 14th? 

Edited January 4 by Kentspur

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

You can find them in other posts.

Yes I know

[That ECM]

Just now, Catacol said:

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K.  north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures.

You sound like Nigella Lawson describing a hot chocolate pudding with double cream.

[Metwatch]

Muy bien

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T264+:

Some of these now starting to see beyond the initial cold spell, as start time has moved on a couple of days since consensus on the Greenland high was achieved.  But clusters 1 and 4 pretty much the continuity options, clusters 2 and 3 suggesting something more mobile, but not clear how cold the air in the UK is when that might happen.  

[swfc]

A lot or most charts are available on here and metiociel etc. Im not sure posting 8 week charts and ec 46 helps much when the ops, means and control charts hsve large variants. Imo 144 hours possibly in this set up is enough although the strat at 10pha has been accurate within its parameters. 

[Froze were the Days]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

One thing is showing it and another actually getting it, saying that just seen the weeklies and after approx 15th it's a bit of a dogs dinner, weak blocking if you can call it so difficult to know what make of those anomalies (could just been very weak low pressure to the north/weak high pressure)...I'll be very surprised if EC has that correct (maybe a watered down version) which doesn't effect the UK at times. I'm quite happy to eat a huge slice of humble pie otherwise.

Have to say also the D10 on the latest EC run looks quite underwhelming with the main cold to the north of the UK and basically a dry run for the majority or are we expecting the cold to evolve thereafter? 

Edited January 4 by Froze were the Days

[Met4Cast]

No idea how you can be anything but happy with the output at the moment. 

For some perspective, this is the ECM ensemble mean for days 9 & 10. It literally does not get better than this at that range.