Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[smhouston]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ok got it, if the output is suggesting cold ignore it. save looking at all the science and output I guess. 

 

 

No, but just take FI with a huge pinch of salt though, with FI being T96+ when cold is suggested. I know sometimes it's hard keeping that excitement in with some of the charts produced, we've all been there. Things have gone Pete tongue before at T48 despite cross model agreement though

 

There was a lot of over excitement yesterday at things too far in advance, some of the comparisons to past years was way OTT. Cross model agreement means sod all, get the first incursion of cold in first, which we look to start doing next week, then see what comes next

 

Not good output so far for a decent cold snowy spell but things can easily swing the other way, models really struggle with these situations. There are still the other background signals the more knowledgeable posters have been saying too which I'm sure won't have suddenly changed

 

As ever in model watching, more runs needed

[TSNWK]

ECM da9 is great when viewed in isolation.. however I get a sense it will not run with heights building further than day 9 and it’s a case on where they fall for longivity

[winterof79]

Just now, joggs said:

Not for us in middle slice lol.

Weather front bud....incoming instability into our cold pool.

Num num

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

ECM da9 is great when viewed in isolation.. however I get a sense it will not run with heights building further than day 9 and it’s a case on where they fall for longivity

I'd say day 10 will be best yet! Let's see...

[Weather-history]

The good news is the rainfall totals.  A much needed dry spell

 

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

It’s not a good look though… kicking a man when there down… 

I guess its the way people come accross in their posts, there have been a couple who have been quite arrogant to anyone questioning the model output post day 10, in the world we live in they must live by the sword and expect a bit of 'come back' if they have got it wrong.

Talking of which, this is by no means over, as mentioned above, experiance also tells us that when were talking about such timeframes models often have a little wobble only to revert back to what they were showing previously. Back end of the weekend before mid month becomes any clearer.

[TSNWK]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I'd say day 10 will be best yet! Let's see...

Not sure what’s going to pump it up.. as you say let’s see

[WINTRY WALES]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Ecm is very good. Indeed its colder than last night, as in gets the cold in faster!! Maybe the ship can be steadied yet!

So your experience just flipped to the cold may come after all?? Jeez

[Vikos]

27 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models.

You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.

This is just Murphy’s law

„Anything that can go wrong will go wrong“

 

people need to chill over wobbly det op outputs as they struggle with splits and minor/major warmings…

[IDO]

Lovely D10 charts from ECM:

]

[January Snowstorm]

Proper cold by ecm

Actually the first chart at 240 hrs in a while that has the cold already over us

[That ECM]

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

in

 

[winterof79]

Just now, IDO said:

Lovely D10 charts from ECM:

]

Again struggling to see date....must go to

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So your experience just flipped to the cold may come after all?? Jeez

It’s called knee jerk reactions
 

The ECM run is a cracker!

Edited January 5 by prolongedSnowLover

[TSNWK]

ECM is very good this morning.. end like this.. happy to bank day 10 and take my chances on where the pieces land for longevity 

[Chesil View]

Gfs doing its usual wobble in advance of a cold outbreak and unsettling those of a nervous constitution, but ukmo and ecm yet again steady as a rock in fact the ecm brings the cold down across the whole UK slightly quicker this morning

[That ECM]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Proper cold by ecm

Actually the first chart at 240 hrs in a while that has the cold already over us

That’s for the bin though right?

Im only joking and yes seeing the gfs op creates disappointment because most want cold. 
 

let’s see what future runs bring.

 

off to find lucky pants for the 12z’s.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Love ECM 240 getting really cold at this stage..note the trigger low around iceland..that will help to pull the high nw again after!

[Vikos]

Gfs morning runs are always a downgrade to the night runs (at least that’s what I feel)

[sheikhy]

I really dont get the comments in here this morning!!!ecm ukmo look brilliant!gfs at the top end again at the end!!!nothing has changed at all BUT as cheshiresnow states we need these charts to get closer from here on in!!!from experience the longer it takes eventually we end up with nothing lol!!!but as it stands in my opinion things looking very very good still this morning!!

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

ECM is very good this morning.. end like this.. happy to bank day 10 and take my chances on where the pieces land for longevity 

I think we'd settle for that. As long as that can count down from day 10. 

Good thing there also is the majority of the PV is over the eastern half of the hemisphere.

But like the GFS,they all struggle with Greeny blocking.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS ensembles still showing the drop with the Northerly although any longetivity is in question.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The good news is the rainfall totals.  A much needed dry spell

 

We still need PPN though, else you can't get snow.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I really dont get the comments in here this morning!!!ecm ukmo look brilliant!gfs at the top end again at the end!!!nothing has changed at all BUT as cheshiresnow states we need these charts to get closer from here on in!!!from experience the longer it takes eventually we end up with nothing lol!!!but as it stands in my opinion things looking very very good still this morning!!

ECM is getting closer. T216 yesterday T192 today.  Latest fax charts and thinking for high in short term.
 

 

Edited January 5 by That ECM