Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Alexis]

Doesn't do it on this run, but wouldn't be surprised if this "disappointing wedge" morphed into an easterly thanks to an undercut.

Edited January 7 by Alexis

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Malarky said:

I’ll be looking out of the living room towards Skeggy and the Wash with excitement mate!

Defo buddy!!!just to see a few bloomin snow grains shall make me happy after the rubbish winter we have had so far lol!!!

[Rob 79812010]

17 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

And 2024!

And Dec 23 for a few days 

[bluearmy]

Day 9.5 has mean uppers -10 to -6 north to south with -8 line as far as s midlands 

that’s colder than all 4 previous runs 

Edited January 7 by bluearmy

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Day 9.5 has mean uppers -10 to -7 north to south with -8 as far as s midlands 

that’s colder than all 4 previous runs 

And let’s be honest, who expected that?

[Zero Visibility]

The 6z is keeping us optimistic, EC trended better this morning, 12z's to come. Onwards and upwards.

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Day 9.5 has mean uppers -10 to -7 north to south with -8 as far as s midlands 

that’s colder than all 4 previous runs 

Wow that's amazing 

[stewfox]

58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Maybe we should put some numbers to the language so that when some shout “a deep freeze is now off the table” we know what we are talking about.

As I see it taking into account usual U.K. winter synoptics:

850s of 0 = Cool

850s of -4 = Cold (has to be, given at -4 snow is in the mix)

850s of -8 = Very Cold (rare, and snow over rain nearly ever time)

850s of -12 = Severe Cold (very rare in truth, if you want lots of these go to Canada)

 

 

 

-10c 850s over a lot of south east tomorrow but 3c to 5c forecast  

In the current situation do we need very low 850s to add to instability given high pressure, the wet warm ground ?

Edited January 7 by stewfox

[sheikhy]

Also anyone notice the colder air from the north east is now at only 6 days out on ecm and gfs!!!we are finally making progress!!!!!

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at gfs ops it seems to me that the strat influence into the trop can be viewed as follows 

we have a stretching spv from svaalbard/barents to Greenland. We then see a warming headed into the Arctic from the pacific side which splits the vortex to Asia/canada. We see our amplified Atlantic at that same time. 
the split is not maintained high up which allows the n American segment to rush back east across the Atlantic to rejoin the main vortex in the svaalbard/e Greenland. area.  That will tie in with the current jet streak in fi 

As Aaron reflected earlier,  this whole movement of the atmosphere looks heavily coupled between strat and trop. Judging which is leading becomes quite difficult. 

 

9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

My thoughts on the current situation after reading back through the last 4 to 6 pages.  (for what its worth!!)

4 days ago now we saw the start up of the second warming of the year, after the telecommunications had been proved pretty accurate.

No charts yet today of the (SSW's/ warming) status yet today           BUT

We do know that 3 days ago all the charts were lined up (GFS climbed into bed last) and that they all aligned along with all the telecommunications you could want.

Then ECM was first to wander. By  coincidence  It appears it has the best (most reactive at any rate) of all the suites to any 'warming' impact in the strat. I might use the term SSW, but a warming of the strat (whilst it is in a weakened state will have very similar effects as those produced by a full on SSW), so I will use interchangeably from now on in this note.

So ECMWF picked up a change first, and started to show the development of a huge PACIFIC high on the Russian side first.  At day 10 I think.

This straight away pushed more of the vortex back in towards Canada, and started to leave Greenland less prone to our  retrogressing high as suggested by the telecommunications tendencies.

The next day the ECMWF  produced a different position for the Pacific high, but with similar results for the Atlantic. Also some of the other models changed slightly;  by now the 'SSW' had become stronger, and some of the other models started to 'wobble', but were not yet being picked up as strong enough to deflect the strong telecommunications  effect.

So on a further day (yesterday , I think) and the ECM produces charts showing a huge Pacific high deflecting the PV back over towards its natural home, (unfortunately Greenland it seems) and try as they might,  it overrides every telecommunications signal. By now more of the  other models started the 'wobbling' process, as the initial effects  of the SSW started to move down into the troposphere.  

Onto the here and now - still more of the models move over to the ECMWF way of looking at things, and by now the ECMWF thinks that things have moved so far that they are irreversible and that the Northern hemisphere will revert back to its default status, with the loss of the high level blocking. 

I am not discounting the fact that the ECM may be overreacting to the signals, so all may not yet be lost., 

 

However no new telecommunications signals had appeared during the above events. The only thing that changed was the early appearance of the SSW  (strat warming). It is my belief that no new 'teles' appeared and that it  is this that has changed the outlook.

If you remember, before this event ( a week ago)  when the latest warming was picked up it was thought that it would make its presence felt by the end of next week (not this), and this was hoped that it would lengthen the period of cold by the then draining cold outlook. Maybe we underestimated its abilities to rapidly impact the troposphere.

Well once again it has not worked in favour of our little bit of the world, whilst other areas (North America again!!) are plunged into cold.  Does luck come into it? I do not know but it sure feels like it.

The thing is that there must have been some other ' drivers' at work causing the rapid onset of the new SSW.

Sorry no charts for the above since  I have to go out now, and I  felt it would have been too long a post. I hope you agree that it is a reasonable summary of the events -. even if you do not agree with the conclusions.

Lastly - the big question is. Is the ECMWF correct?    We have not been able to witness this sort of balancing act between the strat and trop before at this level of detail..

I find it fascinating.

MIA

 

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Could be although I’d also muse that if it is the trop leading the dance then as the trop modelling later in week 2 isn’t going to be accurate, why would the strat be ?? 

Some interesting points here.  My view is that the stratosphere is playing an important role in what is happening this winter, right through.  But it does appear that the SSW that wasn’t, and upcoming warmings, and splits that have been seen or modelled, are driven by the trop, and therefore are responses to the teleconnections/background signals.  I don’t think that is the full story though, I wonder if the reason that events (or modelled events as some of them are in the future) in the trop are able to cause a split that reaches right up into the strat up to 10hPa, is because of the much weakened westerly winds in the strat as a result of the Canadian warming.

I think all of this means a lot of the atmosphere (trop and strat) might be in play at the same time in the upcoming evolution, and that may make life very difficult for the models, especially for the ones with lower vertical resolution.  

[Penrith Snow]

"Houston we have a problem"

You don't have to be a depressed pessimist to see things are trending the wrong way, the ENS are underwhelming and the ECM op a shadow of what was promised a few days ago.

Polish it as much as you want but you won't make the models shine, yes still plenty of time for upgrades as the cold spell is still a week away but we need to see the trend reverse soon.

If it is to go TU then I would rather it be now than at +72 which has happened in the past.

People look at upstream developments in the Pacific but for me it's Iberian Heights that's the issue,  the drought in Spain is now serious and unprecedented with little sign of a change anytime soon.

Andy

[Harveyslugger]

Just now, That ECM said:

And let’s be honest, who expected that?

Nobody

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 9.5 has mean uppers -10 to -7 north to south with -8 as far as s midlands 

that’s colder than all 4 previous runs 

Maybe we need to start paying more attention to the gem mean.

Doesn't get rolled out much, but it showed this earlier as @Allseasons-Si posted.

At least we know what the NOAA chart will look later , especially if they use a low blend from the ecm

Edited January 7 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfs 6z certainly not an outlier out too mid month.

Hey folks it's Sunday...only one thing for it.

..yehhhhhh boyyyyyyyeeeee!!!

[Drifter]

15 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

I would imagine all high tech solutions are studied including GFS.

I know that - I was responding purely to your confusingly worded post. 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - corker!!!

They look great ...

Let's hope the worm has turned and upgrades follow this evening..

 

 

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

They look great ...

Let's hope the worm has turned and upgrades follow this evening..

 

 

We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about :)

-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now!  - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high :p

[GSP]

Never say this country doesn’t have any deflector shields!

[Zero Visibility]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about :)

-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now!  - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high :p

It just goes to show how quickly things can take an upturn in the short term.

Anyway on with the chase!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about

-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now!  - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high

That's true Neil..

I've referenced the next 48 hours down south.

EC / EC mean left me feeling deflated and ill bet I'm not alone.

GEFS 6Z much better but I can't lie,I wasn't reared too, I prefer it if it was EC mean showing the goods at day 8/9 as opposed to GEFS.

All we can do is hope for the best..

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about

-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now!  - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high

I agree but it is for ice.

[Continental Climate]

ECM has to come on board soon for me to have any faith. We seem to have been chasing this cold spell since the new year or even before and it's still over a week away. Without being unduly gloomy I'm assuming this hunt for severe cold (-10 uppers) via a greenie high will fail. We are now talking wedges to get the cold in. It's hard not to get dragged in looking at day 10 charts that offer narnia but we must remember that our little islands are probably situated in the worst possible spot in the NH (at our latitude) for cold weather.

[Mark wheeler]

Brian is happy again.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Maybe we need to start paying more attention to the gem mean.

Doesn't get rolled out much, but it showed this earlier as @Allseasons-Si posted.

At least we know what the NOAA chart will look later , especially if they use a low blend from the ecm

The noaa cpc chart later will be an exact copy of naefs at day 8 and 11 cos it’s automated at weekends 

[Rollo]

Being a survivor of the 62-63 winter when the only info readily available was the BBC forecasts and the Met office charts I received daily, what I remember was pre Christmas was a build of pressure over Finland which moved south towards Germany bringing bitterly cold dry air into the British Isles.

Now my point is that at this stage to our North West , mild air was attempting to penetrate from that direction, then the continental high collapsed and wilt high pressure moving north from the Azores the bitter prolonged spell commenced, I wonder in those far off days if we had all todays gizmos we would have had the will it won’t it situation occurring.