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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll do 👌

IMG_2514.png

IMG_2515.png
 

Prolonged cold coming on this run - pole heights being fed from both sides. 

Crucial part coming up..Will it push again..or topple somewhat?

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll do 👌

IMG_2514.png

IMG_2515.png

Very good. Trough drops in further East (good for me), before the cold moves West.

But this episode might leave a mark on ECM's Op reputation.
It was not in shape when it should have peaked, like a world no. 1 who doesn't do well at the Olympics.

I think GEM may have been most consistent so far?

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

I feel a bit 2010‘ish… 😛

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Tight but the floodgates should become ajar nxt frame!!👌

F076F652-F339-4583-B8BD-8534BE1757EF.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Now where on earth have you been? We’ve been worried sick. 🤣 now sort Greenland and that low and stop messing about.

IMG_0885.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Not as good as I hoped but I’ll stand by my last statement and say prolonged cold - I think it’ll still be good beyond this. 

IMG_2516.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm 144!.😍

It's one run boss, relax 🙄🙄

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll do 👌

IMG_2514.png

IMG_2515.png
 

Prolonged cold coming on this run - pole heights being fed from both sides. 

Until tomorrow morning when everything is slightly different and everyone panics and then come the 12z it will all be back on 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

That’s the 0z

Good spot - still, I think there’s enough heights over the pole to keep the troughs heading south 

IMG_2517.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

It's one run boss, relax 🙄🙄

Crazy on here. Things look ok but chill out

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

I'm saying it looked good!😊

Question is will the pub run day 10 look 😍 or 🤮

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

T192 looks ok. 100% better than this morning . Welcome back ECM 🥶

B1847C89-075B-4560-AAF8-1DB09899AC08.png

CAF6D874-D207-4525-8B6A-935805662004.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

192 looks decent. Should see a sweep S of the cold by D9

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Good spot - still, I think there’s enough heights over the pole to keep the troughs heading south 

IMG_2517.png

Wedge of heights over greenland im thinking at 216

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Looking much better this run. Fingers crossed 🤞 

image.thumb.png.0d33ed366b91fc1ab4c262775a7c2a16.png

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smith25 Contributor

smith25

Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC12h, it doesn't deliver the white flurries to the hungry British snow fans. 

Chart 15th of January. 

Schermafbeelding 2024-01-07 194609.jpg

Way way to far away to look at precipitation yet.

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sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a627c50876ab0db9cafadb0598d90934.png

Day 9 

Thanks for uploading this chart. The cold is not going to the S/SE but SW, which erodes the Greenland anticyclone and doens't deliver the true cold air to us.

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a627c50876ab0db9cafadb0598d90934.png

Day 9 

Much improved and synoptically stunning! But uppers are still delayed yet again to Day 10

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