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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

The UKMO hits no 1 spot pushing the GEM into second and the GFS into 3rd spot .

The UKMO takes the coveted top spot because it’s less likely to have the blocking moving nw post day 7 .

The GEM brings the shortwave sw and even though it just about manages to deliver some interest , it’s not a trend that has much margin for error .

The GFS does similar but struggles more to the get the cold south .

Both the GFS and GEM follow a similar pattern to last nights ECM . 

This shortwave needn’t be a major drama maker if it heads more south . We don’t want the sw track .

It’s likely to phase with low pressure in the Atlantic so the phase point needs to be further east otherwise you run the risk of the phasing developing a deeper low and this pushing ne to the sw . This will lead to a mild encroachment. 

And it could push high pressure ne from the sw ahead of it.

Anyhow that’s some way away in terms of timeframe. Let’s see what the ECM has to say on the matter !

Edited by nick sussex
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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Ukmo & gem are absolutely amazing this morning gfs ain’t too shabby either. Let’s see what the ecm has to say. Could be a good day coming up. Fingers crossed 🤞⛄️

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Clearly some very good output this morning, ukmo T168 is wonderful. 
 

The two below are FI means one from last evening and this morning. Maybe something or nothing and interested in thoughts. Looks to me that most of the pv isn’t over America and directly north there is a gap. Resulting in potential for the continuation of blocking?

 

Might just be I’m seeing what I want to see tbh also.😩🤣

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Edited by That ECM
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Nick2373 Community Regular

Nick2373

Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

Clearly some very good output this morning, ukmo T168 is wonderful. 
 

The two below are FI means one from last evening and this morning. Maybe something or nothing and interested in thoughts. Looks to me that most of the pv isn’t over America and directly north there is a gap. Resulting in potential for the continuation of blocking?

 

Might just be I’m seeing what I want to see tbs also.😩🤣

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I'm seeing that its shifted the deeper purples have some what drained 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Clearly some very good output this morning, ukmo T168 is wonderful. 
 

The two below are FI means one from last evening and this morning. Maybe something or nothing and interested in thoughts. Looks to me that most of the pv isn’t over America and directly north there is a gap. Resulting in potential for the continuation of blocking?

 

Might just be I’m seeing what I want to see tbs also.😩🤣

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Quite a big shift there on the mean to maintain the vortex on the eastern side.  This could be the models correcting for the ‘mistake’ they made over the last couple of days to revert to default in deep FI.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

T72 and yesterday’s T96 quite a difference over Greenland. T96 and T120. I would say it looks better, now watch it go Pete.🤣

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 ukmo and ecm. Similar. 👍

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm could go all the way through here!😍

Maybe, I’m just happy that at T120 it’s very similar to ukmo.👍And at T144 I’m very happy. Do what it likes from there.😄

IMG_0914.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Surely ECM cannot go wrong from here!

Let’s hope not.😄 like to see a continuation in 12z’s for me T120ish is key. Like to get that down to T72. Right, off to work, have good day. 😄

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

That’s a cracking 168 ecm polar profile- given not sharp clearance around Greenland- however those heights are hard punched deeply into the pole. And want that fatherlobe  locked clear on the eastern most side. 🤘

555414ED-2C9D-46C6-8CB5-32B36D8D657C.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The ECM appears to be going a similar route to the previous run, the only difference being the strong warm air advection going into the Arctic. Where will the developing arctic high end up, if it can drift over the top of the troughing to our east and push things far enough south then things could look interesting by the end of the run.

Cold air arrive in the day6/7 range looks like a good bet now, however the model output does have one big element of concern and this is the secondary push of cold air from the Atlantic and the models are flirting with spilling this south west into the Atlantic instead of pulling this cleanly southwards.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Surely ECM cannot go wrong from here!

Always finds a mild sector from nowhere. Thrash model.

Edited by O'Maille80
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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I prefer ecm over ukmo. We don't want dry and bitter, we want cold and snowy!! Choices 🤣 

Good  luck with getting snow at -1 uppers in cork at 192.

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