Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

 

Agree to a point - but- try this for size though if you want low uppers.

Edited January 8 by feb1991blizzard

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The 6z at day 6 is much cleaner around Greenland, *should* be a good run coming up

Trough further west, heights building better into Greeland, lower heights pushing south over the UK more quickly. All round improvement, so far.

[frosty ground]

I don’t think there will be a second low coming south this time, better heights over Greenland has blocked any spillage across the ice shelf.

all in all a much cleaner run

 

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 168 vs GFS 6z at 162

 

A fairly decent match I'd say

[Met4Cast]

24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

 

Forecasts and modelling evolves, the pattern has adjusted slightly, we're continuing to see improvements run to run with cold air across the whole of the UK, a growing risk of disturbances within a very unstable flow moving southwards along with the potential for disruptive frontal snow moving in from the SW. 

I really don't think you're paying attention to what's actually being shown here, you just want to moan about, with respect, absolutely nothing.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Here comes the point into day 8..the vortex is likely to push away the high somewhat

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Trough further west, heights building better into Greeland, lower heights pushing south over the UK more quickly. All round improvement, so far.

Hopefully now the Arctic high  is within 4 day timeframe, the modelling of it won't be jumping around so much, as that feature affects us so much in the later frames 

Edited January 8 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

Looks great at 162, can it hold. 

[Weathizard]

 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree to a point - but- try this for size though if you want low uppers.

1065 mb Greenland high rubs chin vigorously 

[northwestsnow]

Day 7 it's a boomer 

I repeat ,BOOMER 

[Captain Shortwave]

A much much better first plunge of cold air, arriving across the south around early afternoon on the 15th.

[Lukesluckybunch]

It does a sharp turn 168-174..but is there enough amplification?

[Weathizard]

Looking at the day 7 chart I see signs of height rises over Scandi… just a sniff at the moment but with the way those GH are pivoting and linking with that high building over the arctic it’s a possibility 

[jmp223]

Damn, -12 850s for the 15th.  I'll take that tyvm

[northwestsnow]

6z 180 v 0z 180

[IDO]

The 06z loses the surface high to our SW showing on the 0z which delays the colder air:

0z:  06z: 

So much better to this point.

[frosty ground]

he comes the wave, no where near as developed so should bring less milder air with it.

[Ali1977]

This looks loaded with cold and snow chances moving forward  - great start to the day and helping me through the first day back at work ️

Edited January 8 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

6z v 0z 192

UPGRADE 

[Weathizard]

This is such an exceptionally rare January winter chart, don’t worry about precip in this situation… there will be plenty of disturbances, especially for northern/exposed areas.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm giving you the week off work folks..tell ya boss there's just to much dam excitement in the models for you to be able to work with a clear head...you know what I mean!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Excellent stuff!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

13 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Forecasts and modelling evolves, the pattern has adjusted slightly, we're continuing to see improvements run to run with cold air across the whole of the UK, a growing risk of disturbances within a very unstable flow moving southwards along with the potential for disruptive frontal snow moving in from the SW. 

I really don't think you're paying attention to what's actually being shown here, you just want to moan about, with respect, absolutely nothing.

The charts are improving today that I admit. I think everyone should be allowed to comment on how they interpret the models instead of throwing judgements left right and centre.

Edited January 8 by prolongedSnowLover

[Met4Cast]

Hmm.. it doesn't show countrywide blizzards and 20 foot snow drifts so this run is rubbish /s

Much better from the GEFS and once again signs of the colder weather being extended, our Greenland high pressure is fighting to stick around! Interestingly the EPS 00z were much more tightly clustered and also prolonged the cold compared to previous runs. 

We are well and truly back within the upgrade cycle.