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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
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Posted
12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


First time I've seen the ppn reach as far as the West Country / South Wales. Fully expecting the showers to fizzle out before then but maybe not 🤞

This is how things have changed!

It was only a week ago people were saying that for the south it would be mainly dry and because of the DRY air and being a high pressure, they didn't see much in the way of snow. Also for the fact that the upper temps were not forecasted to be as cold as this and so widespread.

Now look what's happened!

This is under a high pressure and it's much colder than first thought just a week ago :santa-emoji:

Clipboard02.jpg

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

image.thumb.png.03cc6b776809a1bc5affcd9f47cb80b3.png

image.thumb.png.48c2c6b91d50e9cfb58273ad5a17b3f1.png

Hello would it be possible to see a copy of GFS 6Z January 8th 2024 ?

" splendid "

And it really is splendid...

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The Arctic high is working for us on this run versus the 0z. Sustaining the Asian/Scandi trough, whereas the 0z cut that off for a while:

06z: gfsnh-0-210-3.thumb.png.02ba722c68500862d6e4c23ae165701a.png 0z: gfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.69cc4b233a4204a7e5b6669c4f0f63bf.png

We need the positives to eek out longevity and a sharper drop of that trough.

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is how things have changed!

It was only a week ago people were saying that for the south it would be mainly dry and because of the DRY air and being a high pressure, they didn't see much in the way of snow. Also for the fact that the upper temps were not forecasted to be as cold as this and so widespread.

Now look what's happened!

This is under a high pressure and it's much colder than first thought just a week ago :santa-emoji:

Clipboard02.jpg

Indeed, Tight Isobar and others were correct, snow flurries here. Same bone dry nonsense comes out every year.

Edited by ribster
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AltonMatthew Enthusiast

AltonMatthew

Posted
Posted

Alot of positivity in the model forums is a nice change. But I air with caution. How many times have we been here for things to suddenly revert back to mild output. 

So far the meaty stuff is still 7+ days away. Enjoy the cold lover output but enjoy with caution. Things can and will change of previous experience is to go by. 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.40aa380052f61aa6228da67d3244962f.png

he comes the wave, no where near as developed so should bring less milder air with it.

It turns out to be a bit of a snow maker.

gfs-16-240.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
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Posted (edited)

Hello what's going on here,

More Arctic heights, I assume the stuff going on up top is the reason.

Should keep that trop vortex from reforming for a while 

 

2024-01-08-10-35-32-762.jpg

Edited by Battleground Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

Alot of positivity in the model forums is a nice change. But I air with caution. How many times have we been here for things to suddenly revert back to mild output. 

So far the meaty stuff is still 7+ days away. Enjoy the cold lover output but enjoy with caution. Things can and will change of previous experience is to go by. 

You can't judge a science on previous failures! And it's usually folks saying it's all 10 days away! This time it's within 6 or 7 days.. The output is remaining steadfast and has had only a couple of minor wobbles..usually when a wobble comes,the big downgrades come. Not this time.. we are looking as solid as I've seen for a long long time.

@if @terrier is onboard for this we could be looking at the mother of all freezes 😉

 

Edited by MATTWOLVES 3
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

What a run. JFF Obviously.

IMG_0921.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
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Posted

The knock-on effect of not having that delay in the cold is highlighted at D10.5:

06z: gfseu-1-258.thumb.png.c24b0846b77e4515cdf03d0a7fc4d528.png 0z: gfseu-1-264.thumb.png.ac15c6fcb3733c88180c84c9005187ab.png

No worries for the South on this run, plenty of wiggle room.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
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Posted

Gfs06z what a run think it calls for a Boom 💥⛄️. Winter is coming folks 🥶 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

What another great morning of output . GFS capping it of with a great run 😍❤️FBCFEC1F-E47D-4944-A84F-CF03E4CD70CA.thumb.png.eba92702ca902c5633106af3341da894.pngC8881632-1405-4BB6-B824-823EE7C2D1CB.thumb.png.ec68566dace79dc519249f5108e80b01.png2F0F85F4-8A24-41BE-A513-736F703342E6.thumb.png.0d7db357bbee5abb6e1bed14cff3f7dd.pngDBCB027C-8B28-41CD-BD83-23421218344C.thumb.png.6f10d7de45799fe92403b9b190e5b7ab.png

Also got an upgrade with a warning now for my area . Met now showing some snow ❄️ get in there . 5740044C-4CE9-4532-BE2F-9DC545505196.thumb.png.aff750f4147763d8c3073fa8c1e4bc90.png

FA670E00-827D-4A68-AC17-7CE904E8D327.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is how things have changed!

It was only a week ago people were saying that for the south it would be mainly dry and because of the DRY air and being a high pressure, they didn't see much in the way of snow. Also for the fact that the upper temps were not forecasted to be as cold as this and so widespread.

Now look what's happened!

This is under a high pressure and it's much colder than first thought just a week ago :santa-emoji:

Clipboard02.jpg

There were a few voices touting it😏

Sometimes you have to go on past experience, even with all the computing model power we have today

Edited by Battleground Snow
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North Easterly Breeze Enthusiast

North Easterly Breeze

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
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Posted

A lot of handbags in here this morning.

Imagine getting worked up about something none of us can even have the slightest influence over. It’s going to get cold, possibly very cold and with a good chance of snow. Not a lot else to it really. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

By D12 we have 5 days of embedded cold, which is what I deemed as a noteworthy cold spell, so anything more is a bonus.

D8-12 850s:

animghn8.gif

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What another great morning of output . GFS capping it of with a great run 😍❤️FBCFEC1F-E47D-4944-A84F-CF03E4CD70CA.thumb.png.eba92702ca902c5633106af3341da894.pngC8881632-1405-4BB6-B824-823EE7C2D1CB.thumb.png.ec68566dace79dc519249f5108e80b01.png2F0F85F4-8A24-41BE-A513-736F703342E6.thumb.png.0d7db357bbee5abb6e1bed14cff3f7dd.pngDBCB027C-8B28-41CD-BD83-23421218344C.thumb.png.6f10d7de45799fe92403b9b190e5b7ab.png

Also got an upgrade with a warning now for my area . Met now showing some snow ❄️ get in there . 5740044C-4CE9-4532-BE2F-9DC545505196.thumb.png.aff750f4147763d8c3073fa8c1e4bc90.png

FA670E00-827D-4A68-AC17-7CE904E8D327.png

Yea more broadly across the South..!😊

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jacke Contributor

jacke

Posted
  • Location: March, Cambs
  • Location: March, Cambs
Posted
3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

You can't judge a science on previous failures! And it's usually folks saying it's all 10 days away! This time it's within 6 or 7 days.. The output is remaining steadfast and has had only a couple of minor wobbles..usually when a wobble comes,the big downgrades come. Not this time.. we are looking as solid as I've seen for a long long time.

Your first sentence should be made the best quote of the day. More and more on here keep comparing with the past!  Go back just a few years and the matrix available were so different.  Surely the time has come to comment on what we see now.  Opinions on that will always differ but that,I thought, was the purpose of this thread.  Taking the whole suites as they stand now I say that this weekend is finally a turning point for overall cold and from 60 years of weather watching a very typical cold spell with biggest risks of less cold in the south. It has always been that way.

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