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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS is a better run on 6z than 0z.  See the area circled, there is more of a ridge between the UK and Azores low here, T120 v 0z T126:

IMG_8419.thumb.jpeg.c4643f2c691be324bf5ec7feec0ce992.jpegIMG_8420.thumb.png.8fec0c94703ccd2d51433ca807a6834c.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Quite a different handling of the Azores low on this run.

06z

image.thumb.png.56a88f24df504d8a4afc9f04631a06d0.png
 

00z

image.thumb.png.07291dfa97f4a11956e9a55bea172f6e.png

 

Most of that low is pushing towards the UK on this run instead of stalling near the Azores.

 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS is a better run on 6z than 0z.  See the area circled, there is more of a ridge between the UK and Azores low here, T120 v 0z T126:

IMG_8419.thumb.jpeg.c4643f2c691be324bf5ec7feec0ce992.jpegIMG_8420.thumb.png.8fec0c94703ccd2d51433ca807a6834c.png

Yeah, you can already see there is less of cold push into Iceland which is what we want

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS is a better run on 6z than 0z.  See the area circled, there is more of a ridge between the UK and Azores low here, T120 v 0z T126:

IMG_8419.thumb.jpeg.c4643f2c691be324bf5ec7feec0ce992.jpegIMG_8420.thumb.png.8fec0c94703ccd2d51433ca807a6834c.png

Arh! I get it now - Azore low is boxed in more 🙂

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Not polished but clean… a more definitive blocking format- And a better dynamical arctic flow.. which in turn shallows out Atlantic. Energy’s… and the azores begins to sink ..

B2FA6544-C239-4AC7-9E52-50B3D4D38791.png

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BurwellWeatherWatch Enthusiast

BurwellWeatherWatch

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
Posted
16 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

Model Downgrades incoming as expected. Yet again too many got carried away with initial signs not understanding that yet again the models will flip or push the date out. Im holding no hope than a few days maybe of colder temps but nothing special as usual. 

appreciate this was an attempt to be provocative rather than a serious contribution, but it's almost certainly a bit more complicated than this. The solutions will wax and wane with the borderline of cold and less cold shifting around. On a global scale it's trivial but is obviously significant on the ground in the UK. This morning's solution seem to be more positive for those of a cold disposition and although it seems totally unscientific, it does seem that the overnight/morning runs are more 'cautious' about cold and the evening ones generally in favour of it! So I think signs are good for next week and you have almost certainly under-sold it.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.b2b5a09be679687650741e557e10111e.png
 

The elements to the south are better, however there is a secondary low forming near Iceland and the cold pooling is flirting with the upstream troughing. At least the cold air is over the UK at this point and the risk of persistent snow in the south.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

image.thumb.png.b2b5a09be679687650741e557e10111e.png
 

The elements to the south are better, however there is a secondary low forming near Iceland and the cold pooling is flirting with the upstream troughing.

Classic gfs one step forward and 2 steps back

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

image.thumb.png.b2b5a09be679687650741e557e10111e.png
 

The elements to the south are better, however there is a secondary low forming near Iceland and the cold pooling is flirting with the upstream troughing. At least the cold air is over the UK at this point and the risk of persistent snow in the south.

Yes, its all going wrong now - very wrong.

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gfs has took a big step to the euros early on,

Look for the high to get sucked up from Uk towards greenland because the low is still enclosed in the Atlantic 

gfsnh-0-90 (3).png

gfsnh-0-96 (4).png

It's a downgrade early on azores low cutting off the heights it's either very wrong or very right.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

It's a downgrade early on azores low cutting off the heights it's either very wrong or very right.

I'm still wondering after all this, we will get a Siberian High pressure come into play later in Jan!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Cross lobe engagement!.. and the gfs 6z wants shut off!

64E8D0EF-4585-4209-A5F4-8B231F8E0ED0.png

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Snowmad79 Aficionado

Snowmad79

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

It's a downgrade early on azores low cutting off the heights it's either very wrong or very right.

With the major alarm bell being the fact the low development near Icleand is sliding into the reliable. Horror show right there on the 6z

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Classic gfs one step forward and 2 steps back

 

Yep, this is not going the way we want to see it in the semi-reliable.  It's looking a lot like this morning's GEM

image.thumb.png.bfb2f9873be8693010f3a1fcff211297.png  image.thumb.png.6a9c78209d95adec18715610bf6267a7.png

Thankfully the GEM and GFS lag behind the ECM and UKMO in the verification stats, let's hope the Euro's don't move toward this solution later 🤞

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted (edited)

At times of uncertainty, forecasters look to climatology. 

I can say at no point do I recall seeing a chart like this verify - hence I would think there’s low confidence in this run

spacer.png

Edited by Johnp
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs o6z terrible🤷‍♂️!!!!!

Yes - although there could a huge irony here, with that negatively tilted Greenland trough diving SE, it could give us the biggest dumping of recent GFS runs.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Cross lobe engagement!.. and the gfs 6z wants shut off!

64E8D0EF-4585-4209-A5F4-8B231F8E0ED0.png

We definitely don’t want cross lobe engagement!

The run has ended up a disaster.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Key time. This is where it starts imo.

IMG_9995.png

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, tight isobar said:

Cross lobe engagement!.. and the gfs 6z wants shut off!

64E8D0EF-4585-4209-A5F4-8B231F8E0ED0.png

Whilst I don't think this will happen as indicated here, it is always a risk isn't it?. Less robust blocking means more danger down the line. Anyway onto the 12zs hopefully the ship gets steadied. Always model drama lol why can't we just get a nice smooth countdown to T0 like in 2010. Wishful.thinking. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

The GFS over the pole is even worse than the 00z, that run had cold air spilling into the Atlantic, this time this cold air from the Scandinavian trough to pushing through Greenland and very early on compared to the other models.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I thought the 0z GFS OP was progressive in the breakdown, but this trumps that! It does appear that my hatred of GH modelling is seen in all its pain here, with a poor show if GFS is correct.

D7: gfseu-0-168.png?6image.thumb.png.ad0f38eeff072f4e7e14d7f384bdb36d.png

 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

Bemusing at times in here. GFS 6z looks better to me than the 0z. Just not as good as other models. Yet the latter gets labelled as 'terrible' where the former didn't. 

Edited by MattStoke
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