Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mcconnor8]

5 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Manchester north is absolutely awful 

 

we want it from the south coast we deserve an event 

I got 2cm yesterday on the coast during heavy snow for periods, now melting quickly, goes down as an event for me 

ECM gives more chance of a South event than GFS with the stronger blocking pushing the jet further South but I do think GFS is out of sync with every other model, UKMO would offer opportunities for Southern snowfall too I think but doesn't run far enough out currently.

Edited January 9 by Mcconnor8

[GSP]

17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

The amount of times I've heard that the last few days...then looked and been underwhelmed.

There should be plenty of caveats around with these models and forecasts. Events still 5 days away where just one little feature moving 50 miles can have a big say on an outcome.

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

It's Tuesday today?

 

1 minute ago, Nick2373 said:

It is Tuesday

Ha ha, updated my original post - losing track of days! 

[MJB]

16 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

06z well i don't know what Exeter are seeing but all I'm seeing on the 6z is just under average temps with a climb to just above from the 22nd onwards, South looks to be falling to just average conditions on every run, I cant wait for the 12z to roll out because quite frankly that's a rubbish chart if its cold and snow your after. 

 

You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL 

[Nick2373]

Just now, MJB said:

You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL 

No they wont but like my post lets see what the 12z brings, but there as been a trend there for a few runs for something less colder for at least the South. 

[northwestsnow]

Fingers crossed for the 12z runs ..

I'm off out today so that's probably a good omen

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL 

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members.

 

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest METO forecast says next week could be interesting ️ deep dive later may fill us in. I suspect they are full on seeing cold with snow

Bingo bongo bango....game on fir disruptive snow from W/SW

Also unexpected disturbances in the North/NEasterly flows.

[Hullsnow87]

Any update on ecm 6z?

[northwestsnow]

My preference is the snowline stays south of the Midlands actually.

That way more people see snow and those of us North of the snow will hopefully see lots of snow showers and frosty nights.

 

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Tuesday 9 th Jan

NOAA 6-10==15-19th, in other words inside the approximate date of ‘deep’ cold predicted some time ago.the 6-10 chart keeps the meridional flow across the chart, the shape is not the classic one but no signal for a developing mobile Atlantic, not on the 8-14 really. As usual the high +ve anomaly is much reduced but this is normal. IF this persists and the upstream becomes less conducive to another trough-ridge downstream then a change could be signalled but not so far and the 8-14 takes us to 17-23rd Jan?

ECMWF has never been as +ve about the deep cold scenario and its latest output for 15-19 Jan is pretty similar. The 850’s show the -5C extending during the period to cover all of the UK by the 15th then it is moved north again so that by the 19th is is predicted be N Wales to about the Wash area. This as the 500 flow backs more west or even south of west with time.

UK Met of course only shows surface and 500MB outputs for 3 days (13-15 th) but it looks to be on the same page for just prior to the two above from the 15 th. Ridge dominated both 500 and surface, over/just NW of the UK to a more trough dominated by the end of its run, again surface and upper air.

So overall then, after a temporary slight warming at the surface and height, over the weekend a deeper colder spell seem likely to occur. The direction of flow, initially, being N’ly not E’ly. Looking on Extra at the skew-T diagrams, the colder air seems to start arriving over Doncaster by 14 Jan and much colder air continues to advect into the area from a N’ly direction as far as the run goes=T+180. All the time with limited convection, to around 6000 ft. So even well inland it is ‘possible’ for snow to fall. This is way ahead of any reliability from the synoptic models so patience is needed as to just what will happen over the UK regarding snowfall. Be that from showers and any possible troughs in the flow or from the Atlantic trying to move in giving more general ppn.

To me it seems unlikely that milder air is unlikely to make much, if any, real progress against the cold airmass in the period under discussion on this post.

All really interesting though to see just how the actual weather will turn out.

Thanks again John 

A little rampathon detected.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Bingo bongo bango....game on fir disruptive snow from W/SW

Also unexpected disturbances in the North/NEasterly flows.

So those GFS runs which some dismissed of the Azores low coming into play is now being suggested by the Met Office? I mean somewhere could get lucky but it's playing with fire, much prefer the cold air properly establishes itself before any attack from the west/south west. 

The main thing is we get a strong enough northerly to get that cold air as far south as possible and for the northerly to be as potent as it possibly can be.

[The Northern Ramper]

Lovely to see snow getting into Northern England on the 6z. Ireland getting a pasting too. Rain for many in the south. 

Edited January 9 by The Northern Ramper

[nick sussex]

In extended periods of colder weather any frontal snow tends to favour more southern areas . That’s because this correlates with stronger blocking to the north .

It’s not possible to have a frontal snow event that effects the whole country without a changeover to rain for some parts unless you get an active front moving south and that’s quite rare .

The last one I think was the infamous thunder snow event .

 

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think it's the first time they've mentioned disruptive snow ..

It's got to be an upgrade, hasn't it ?

The extended forecast is what interests me based on what the eps are showing (and the 46 for last week jan) 

16 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members.

 

That’s their in house models 

they only seem to use ncep when they want to show forks in the road on the outlook videos. If their own models agree with gefs against eps then of course they may appear to side with ncep (but effectively they are judging that their own model is a better bet ) 

[Nick2373]

Exeter deep dive is out for today worth a watch but not for the faint heart Southern people.  Knife edge stuff I'll say that

Edited January 9 by Nick2373

[Harsh Climate]

From looking at the latest output it does look like over the last 24 hours most models have moved away from the suggestion of a retrogressing high towards Greenland/Scandi later next week with perhaps deep cold and a more longer lasting cold spell.

What we have instead is potentially a brilliant setup for Central UK, which there could be one or 2 big falls of snow even down to very low levels. The trade off is I think we lose the potential for one big long cold spell, with snow showers. Instead, we lose HLB and you would fancy some milder air to filter through at some time late next week. Not a guarantee but a good likelihood for most areas. Perhaps far NE holding onto colder air. For me this isn't too bad if you achieve some good snowfall(s) beforehand. And further cold or even HLB could just be around the corner after a brief lul anyway.

Edited January 9 by Harsh Climate

[Purga]

Been alluded to but some very good cold runs in the ENS. Also, a VERY encouraging & bullish UKM long range update today for coldies (check out the appropriate thread) !

[Froze were the Days]

Be aware MetO updates can be off the mark in the medium /long term - remember 2018/19 Winter, the cold that never transpired!

[Mike Poole]

Similar heights into Greenland, and between UK and Azores low, on the ECM 6z control at T138, compared to its 0z run…

Sorry for the re-edit, previous post had incorrect chart, I still cant get the right chart for T144, so I’ve done comparison T138 instead.

 

Edited January 9 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Stronger heights into Greenland, and between UK and Azores low, on the ECM 6z control at T144, compared to its 0z run…

Pretty consistent Mike - just looks a few hours later with the pattern 

would be nice to see two consecutive runs with the same Arctic profile ! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly the mogreps 6z ens look cold with many runs keeping us cold..the next step is we get cold locked in from a nthly and we then undercut these systems and disrupt them.

Oh and Exeter now say they are keeping an eye on the potential for disruptive snowfall next week

Ohhh yehhhh

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM control vs 06z GFS

   

 

The ECM has a much better ridge and the cold air is angled much better as a result. We really need to see the ECM type solution later on.

Edited January 9 by Captain Shortwave

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

From looking at the latest output it does look like over the last 24 hours most models have moved away from the suggestion of a retrogressing high towards Greenland/Scandi later next week with perhaps deep cold and a more longer lasting cold spell.

What we have instead is potentially a brilliant setup for Central UK, which there could be one or 2 big falls of snow even down to very low levels. The trade off is I think we lose the potential for one big long cold spell, with snow showers. Instead, we lose HLB and you would fancy some milder air to filter through at some time late next week. Not a guarantee but a good likelihood for most areas. Perhaps far NE holding onto colder air. For me this isn't too bad if you achieve some good snowfall(s) beforehand. And further cold or even HLB could just be around the corner after a brief lul anyway.

Yes HLB to re establish to our NW at any opportunity as i have said previously.I favour slider gate as some have predicted with frequent disturbances swinging up into a very cold air mass and dragging in a NE feed as they move into the North Sea but at regular intervals.

[booferking]

All good from the Ec 06z update some rippers in there a few selected.