Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

The current charts that have been showing dryer and colder weather are still supported by the latest METO update. Much better than wind and rain. 
 

The U.K. is going to get much colder, and eventually dry out a little. That’s a great start

Edited December 31, 2023 by Paul

[WYorksWeather]

Still very much in a holding pattern for now - not much change from last night's ensembles. Definitely looking at a below average spell for at least a few days, but the depth of the cold and the duration are still very uncertain. There are cold-mild options, cold-mild-cold options, and consistently cold options through mid-month.

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I needed to jump out of semi retirement for this post..hope the mods don't mind.

When I joined this forum nearly 5 years ago I was sceptical of back ground drivers as I didn't really understand them..so I just played ignorant to it all....but I never disrespected any of the posters who shared this knowledge! As the years have rolled by the likes of Tamara..catacol...met4cast...chio..matt H.. eagle eye...(I could go on with this list as there's more of you) have completely changed my attitude to such a wonderful science,and the amount of work that goes into this subject with there posts is unreal! Do keep in mind many of the above are not professional! Yes you would think they were...they are that good at it,they simply have a gr8 passion for the subject and spend a hell of a lot of time studying,and then they pass this information on to us giving us the chance to learn something new!

I for one know for a fact some of them in the past have come close to stopping posting due to non stop criticism...and I've actually talked one of them out of it privately on more than one occasion!

Where do you think the Met get there long range forecasts from! A clairvoyant!! The tea leafs! It's all based on drivers around the globe and much of it is inputted into those monthly text updates.. yet when they're talking up cold and snow,everyone loves em! When they get it wrong they're useless! Get my point here!

Let's all dismiss those drivers and base our forecasts on 4 gfs runs a day! One run shows Greenland blocking...the next a bartlett high! Exactly!!! Its not quite that simple.

So I say to all of those that spend so much time bringing us these amazing insights with the teleconnections to please keep at it...most of us on this Forum want to keep learning from it.

Keep the peace folks...no point in dismissing something you either don't understand,or are simply not willing to try and understand.

Well said & echo the sentiment. The winds that blow a hoolie as the globe spins at 1,000 mph plays a very big influence & those that follow the jet stream/MJO projections can gain a better understanding beyond the 10 day period.

As Tamara mentioned yesterday, the High Pressure isn't sinking any time fast & will simply manoeuvre East & West, so we have to hit lucky at some point.

On that note, hope you have a Hoolie tonight & a Drier January, please.

Chin up folks & to those dismissing drivers “a nod’s as guid as a wink tae a blind horse”. Happy Hogmanay

[Eagle Eye]

Got a long post coming up to copy over but right now, the server isn't allowing me to upload files. So for now would like to echo the sentiment that generally, the high lat blocking should generally stay for the next few weeks w/the momentum in place, it just moves around due to different factors and that's important for our own weather evolution. 

[northwestsnow]

Ref Exeter..

Maybe I'm getting it wrong but it seems to me Exeter don't envisage the Atlantic taking over after the upcoming anticyclonic set up...

Which puts us in the game for a second bite of the cherry  ,something others have mentioned this morning.

There  might be a holding pattern involved mid term ,something to ponder while the 12z runs update..

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

They say getting winter into this country is now impossible!

I tell you what's even more impossible! Getting some positivity and patience into this forum on the....wait for it 31st December!

It's gradually becoming colder...surface cold will most likely come into play here..beyond that the situation perhaps gets more exciting!

New years resolution....I must have a little more patience...no more Amazon shopping I'll walk to the nearest warehouse and get it myself...yeh it might take longer..but the outcome is still the same...the goods arrive in the end...

Much love as always.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

They say getting winter into this country is now impossible!

I tell you what's even more impossible! Getting some positivity and patience into this forum on the....wait for it 31st December!

It's gradually becoming colder...surface cold will most likely come into play here..beyond that the situation perhaps gets more exciting!

New years resolution....I must have a little more patience...no more Amazon shopping I'll walk to the nearest warehouse and get it myself...yeh it might take longer..but the outcome is still the same...the goods arrive in the end...

Much love as always.

London with -6/7c mean uppers by the 8th - pretty good I’d say, the start of 2 months of proper cold winter weather. ️

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[sundog]

It would be perfect if we get a hp spell with frosts and chilly days.  Dry out the ground a bit and reduce the ground temperatures.  Then to be followed by a proper cold spell with snow.  Once the hp doesn't sink,  hopefully we can get this type of scenario which to me is a holy grail. Frosty weather followed by snow. 

[Nick2373]

06z shows just below average temperature GFS hopefully is a outliner, but honestly looking at that dryish with some cold rain especially around the coast cooler conditions from around the 05th to the 09th then a split of the members 50/50 I know the 06z one you ignore well to one’s own perils. 

[Paul]

We have a fresh thread here, and it would be nice if everyone could make the effort to keep their posts model related.

For general chat, moans etc, please use the winter thread

 

[northwestsnow]

ICON looks an upgrade 

12 v 6z @ 102

[geordiekev]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks an upgrade 

12 v 6z @ 102

Building blocks certainly there & better shaped low to pump the WAA up

EdIT: and only 4 days away

Edited December 31, 2023 by geordiekev

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks an upgrade 

12 v 6z @ 102

Nws is this regard to drier cold weather within the next ten days. Tia

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Nws is this regard to drier cold weather within the next ten days. Tia

I suspect short term changes can have big knock on effects ..

I'm hopeful winter is coming ..

12z v 6z  102h

 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, geordiekev said:

Building blocks certainly there & better shaped low to pump the WAA up

Be interesting to see where it ends up at 180, the 00Z ended like this......

A few of the EPS from the 06z were showing  this route too 

I'd much prefer blocking sets up here rather than east near the UK 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I suspect short term changes can have big knock on effects ..

I'm hopeful winter is coming ..

12z v 6z  102h

 

I agree. Hopefully things can change very quickly on the nhp

[Ali1977]

Icon says

[January Snowstorm]

The Icon is going for a UK high on this run, with heights much lower towards Greenland than previous one

Any proper cold is way out East

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon says

It says, more runs needed for details but Atlantic train isn’t.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Icon is going for a UK high on this run, with heights much lower towards Greenland than previous one

 

Difference across the pole is stark too

[January Snowstorm]

Here it is for next Sunday, full week from today and uppers still above 0 in Ireland. Slightly cooler over UK. Mainly dry

[northwestsnow]

ICON looks similar to gfs 6z 

[sheikhy]

Beware the deep purples over the pole clumping together again!the uk high can banish aint got time for it !!once bitten twice shy!i shall continue to watch over like i have over the last month until/if the time comes to unleash!!1 month of winter gone already and the days continue to dissapear!!!!!

[booferking]

First out the blocks for 12z set icon goes with uk high for the all elusive beginning of the cold spell.

Lots of purple around the pole on this one

[swfc]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Beware the deep purples over the pole clumping together again!the uk high can banish aint got time for it !!once bitten twice shy!i shall continue to watch over like i have over the last month until/if the time comes to unleash!!1 month of winter gone already and the days continue to dissapear!!!!!

Sheikhy relax dude. Its not January yet boss