Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[booferking]

13 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Saw the writing a few days ago personally.

That’s why I’ve not bothered with much input on here. 

It's a game of Russian roulette always prefer to make it on the first attempt seen it so many times over the years 2nd 3rd bite fails and incomes the Atlantic.

[Nick2373]

Just now, Bartlett High said:

Is that the makings of an omega ?

Don’t think so looks like a UK high dry and ok then Collapsing back down on its self. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, booferking said:

It's a game of Russian roulette always prefer to make it on the first attempt seen it so many times over the years 2nd 3rd bite fails and incomes the Atlantic.

Yes some of us have been around here long enough to know the script!

A few weeks ago a SSW looked a cert. Hence I couldn’t see a way for the strat to gain the upper hand.

[seabreeze86]

Wow what a chart that is going to link with the arctic high no chance that sinks 

Just a shame we lose the deep cold before the easterly kicks in 

Wont let me upload charts but I mean the UKMO 168hrs

[TSNWK]

We don’t even get the 2nd attempt on 12z.. flat and stormy 

 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair your are probably right about the first blocking high days 7-9 it does look like it will now sink, to what degree we don't know.

Even as good as the UKMO looks at 144h there's no saying that won't sink either?? And we are yet to see the ECM 00z. For me the key will be the next blocking high days 13-15!

I never used words as strong as will I said most likely, probably etc. I am not an all or nothing forecaster. The output has migrated towards a flatter outcome which suggests this is definitely possible, it depends on small scale timing / phasing issues which the NWP does not have power to resolve so it could still go either way - though subjectively speaking once the shift has started it can be tough to reverse - hence the 70/30 between a temporary light easterly / UK high and a strong Easterly flow.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[Spah1]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is what we want.

Only issue is GFS/ICON are similar so UKMO looks the outlier solution,as it stands.

Massive ECM later..

Oh come on NWS. GFS and ICON poor models. UKMO and ECM will lead the way. 

[IDO]

Looking upstream, there is a pesky shortwave spoiler that interferes with the ridge in the east Pacific, ruining the upstream amplification, which would likely lead to an uptick in the westerly flow scuppering the Atlantic/UK high:

   

See if that is a one-off algorithmic invention or a spoiler. GFS is terrible after D10:

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

We don’t even get the 2nd attempt on 12z.. flat and stormy 

 

Clearly wrong early doors 

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

In fairness you were also very confident of strong Iberian heights ruining any hope of cold so.. 

Do think you’re a little too over confident at times on the back of a few det runs. 

I still see it as a big worry to put things in perspective 2/3 days ago I was very confident Azores would come in now I am slightly more split on the outcome.

The reverse can be said for those pining for cold after 2/3 great runs.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo that will do..heights in a much better area!

[phil nw.]

Over the years it is uncanny how many times the split flow of the jet upstream causes disagreements within the operational runs.

Further it is uncanny how on many of these occasions the GFS is proved to have thrown too much energy into the northern arm of the jet.

Just saying...

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Clearly wrong early doors 

Hope so.. needs to be massive outlier from day 6 please on spaghetti plots

[Battleground Snow]

Gefs all over the shop with many solutions at just 144.

I wouldn't be confident in calling anything at the moment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We should see the ECM join the GFS/ICON tonight so we can be more confident of this progression.

Why should we see the ECM join the GFS 12z.  I mean the GFS 06z didn’t join the GFS did it?  

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I never used words as strong as will - it will most likely - probably etc. I am not an all or nothing forecaster. The output has migrated towards a flatter outcome which suggests this is definitely possible, it depends on small scale timing / phasing issues which the NWP does not have power to resolve so it could still go either way - though subjectively speaking once the shift has started it can be tough to reverse - hence the 70/30 between a temporary light easterly / UK high and a strong Easterly flow.

I would agree with that, re- the first attempt.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Why should we see the ECM join the GFS 12z.  I mean the GFS 06z didn’t join the GFS did it?  

 

BFTP

Should so we can be more confident, not should because it is more likely.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Next chance will be later Jan

Though I’ve just checked the GFS strat output and I personally wouldn’t bank on that either with SPV sat over the pole.

Keeping an eye on that Aaron 

the extended ens are extending the spv to Greenland from svaalbard and looking like they may be sending energy back and forth - we know that would power up the Atlantic if it verified and coupled down below.  Of course on the other hand,  a stretched vortex would also be susceptible to renewed wave breaks if they occur. Whilst the ec46 doesn’t have too many fans, it does allow us to see the zonal strength of all the members so we can look out for a general increase in the number of stronger runs as January progresses. There was an increase in the number of flatter gefs members around T300 on the 06z suite so it is something that the model is seeing. 

[Drifter]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I never used words as strong as will I said most likely, probably etc. I am not an all or nothing forecaster. The output has migrated towards a flatter outcome which suggests this is definitely possible, it depends on small scale timing / phasing issues which the NWP does not have power to resolve so it could still go either way - though subjectively speaking once the shift has started it can be tough to reverse - hence the 70/30 between a temporary light easterly / UK high and a strong Easterly flow.

When you say ‘the output’, you mean ‘the GFS’ presumably because UKMO isn’t trending flatter. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Drifter

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Should so we can be more confident, not should because it is more likely.

But you see  the high sinking and therefore you would expect it to follow gfs. Therefore it would be more likely in your view. Otherwise you initial post would have been different. You should be a politician.

Edited December 31, 2023 by That ECM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Should so we can be more confident, not should because it is more likely.

There’s going to be some model volatility over next few days.  To see GFS 06z and 12z certainly highlights that.

 

BFTP

[Scott Ingham]

29 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's more of a concensus than a trend now.

It’s only the gfs operationals doing this Kasim. Models will continue to be all over the place! There’s just so much going off at once! I’d stick with ukmo/ecm. Where’s this negativity come from considering the set up and background signals? I don’t understand it

[Daniel*]

It’s almost as if ECM 00z never happened which clearly has much stronger parallels with latest UKMO. Tonight’s ECM 12z imo will be very decisive. Instead GFS and cannon folder models are taken as superior guidance. Bizzare. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Daniel*

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

When you say ‘the output’, you mean ‘the GFS’ presumably. 

The GFS/ICON/GEM are 3 of the big 5 which can not be discounted. If those 3 showed a strong easterly then would be taken very seriously as possible. Why should this be any different when the solution is not as good. 

[Spah1]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The GFS/ICON/GEM are 3 of the big 5 which can not be discounted. If those 3 showed a strong easterly then would be taken very seriously as possible. Why should this be any different when the solution is not as good. 

I really don’t believe they are part of the big 5. 
 

UKMO and ECM are the best models then on the 2nd tear the above 3.