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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Beware the deep purples over the pole clumping together again👀!the uk high can banish aint got time for it !!once bitten twice shy!i shall continue to watch over like i have over the last month until/if the time comes to unleash!!1 month of winter gone already and the days continue to dissapear🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️!!!!!

Would agree. Older folk here have seen how uk highs are good for just one thing  burning up Winter time. Let's hope the other models are better, time to hold fire and let them run

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Would agree. Older folk here have seen how uk highs are good for just one thing  burning up Winter time. Let's hope the other models are better, time to hold fire and let them run

That isn't strictly true though .

UK highs can absolutely be the first step to a cold spell.

Of course they can sink but to suggest the outcome is singular isn't accurate.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks similar to gfs 6z 

image.thumb.png.187c7b8a416fcc6b12d90ebedcac8e55.png

image.thumb.png.03cf82ee9312f75baccd765e35158bcc.png

Not much saying the high will sink to me

image.thumb.png.c6da2df51602a78150761f1d8375c56e.png

image.thumb.png.2d39e3d87ee0a06d7a7f30fff7f4a73b.png

Edited by winterof79
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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

That isn't strictly true though .

UK highs can absolutely be the first step to a cold spell.

Of course they can sink but to suggest the outcome is singular isn't accurate.

Am not a fan but your point is fair enough. They can indeed work out in our favour. I just personally dislike them because I find them boring

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

What happened here. Talk about mixed signals

Screenshot_20231231_153748_Chrome.jpg

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ref Exeter..

Maybe I'm getting it wrong but it seems to me Exeter don't envisage the Atlantic taking over after the upcoming anticyclonic set up...

Which puts us in the game for a second bite of the cherry  ,something others have mentioned this morning.

There  might be a holding pattern involved mid term ,something to ponder while the 12z runs update..

 

Some mentioned the second bite over the last day or two, which looks the way forward.  Seb 1973 post re HP over NW Europe and North Sea prior to SSW effects lead to higher chance of Greenland blocking as a response.  I’m of that opinion and am pretty optimistic.

 BFTP

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

They say getting winter into this country is now impossible!

I tell you what's even more impossible! Getting some positivity and patience into this forum on the....wait for it 31st December!

It's gradually becoming colder...surface cold will most likely come into play here..beyond that the situation perhaps gets more exciting!

New years resolution....I must have a little more patience...no more Amazon shopping I'll walk to the nearest warehouse and get it myself...yeh it might take longer..but the outcome is still the same...the goods arrive in the end...😉

Much love as always.

mogreps850london.png

mogreps850birmingham.png

mogreps850leeds.png

Mogreps are definately 'getting down'...thanks Matt for all your great uplifting posts throughout the year...hope new year is better for you..

..well despite details still to be ironed out it still looks like 6th or 7th it starts to turn colder...looking further ahead towards mid month  the signs of colder than average weather remain..

Eps 500 0z anoms..

eps_z500a_nhem_54.thumb.png.a9bb1691a68f5c2d5b36870083d938af.png

...showing considerable area of above average heights to nw and below average heights to the east from Baltics to med.

looking deeper...at the mslp and anoms it still shows plenty of HP stretching up to the pole and low pressure trough to the east..although conditions on the ground will vary according to actual synoptic patterns...

eps_mslpa_nhem_54.thumb.png.aadb1856e98253cb91a2fe09ab6e56d1.png

the 850 temp anoms also show quite a large area of colder than average stretching from the Baltics and east down to the med and of course covering the uk..

eps_T850a_nhem_54.thumb.png.f0a11f1f9c31319f98f1aebd3a371ab2.png

Wanted to post the gefs but for some reason the download froze...anyway point is i think once the colder than average weather arrives it will be with us for at least a couple of weeks if not longer..actual details will eb and flow and of course how cold and whether there is snow..however this is a better position to be in than a bog standard zonal westerly going on for weeks...

..finally just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year..hope those that are suffering can look forward to better times...and a thank you to all posters on here for making this forum as good as it is..the ups and downs all part of it...also thanks again to the educational posters ..you know who you are..i have learnt a lot but still of course..learning..

...have a good evening...☕️🍷🍻

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53 (2).png

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Guest

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Am not a fan but your point is fair enough. They can indeed work out in our favour. I just personally dislike them because I find them boring

Obviously Snow is the first choice, but freezing fog and thick frosts can create their own winter wonderlands, I remember several years ago we had freezing fog for a few days and the trees had icicles hanging of them!.

image.thumb.png.206ac901a90bd2bf7cb873d48a3e8011.png Going up!.....Lets see where it ends up this time!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 ukmo . If this was the first time this was in view I wonder what the comments would be?

IMG_9857.gif

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T120 ukmo . If this was the first time this was in view I wonder what the comments would be?

IMG_9857.gif

Where did that come from 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T120 ukmo . If this was the first time this was in view I wonder what the comments would be?

IMG_9857.gif

Vortex looks to busy.nowhere for Atlantic heights to climb… 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Vortex looks to busy.nowhere for Atlantic heights to climb… 

Out the way, coming through.😃

IMG_9858.gif

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks very interesting..

Lift off 🚀 

 

 

Loving that 👌🥶

IMG_2193.gif

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

𝑴𝑬𝑺𝑺𝑨𝑮𝑬 𝑭𝑶𝑹 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝒀𝑬𝑨𝑹!!

𝑩𝒐𝒂𝒓𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒐𝒏 𝑭𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 ✈️ 2024 𝒉𝒂𝒔 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒅....... 

𝒀𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒍𝒖𝒈𝒈𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒃𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝒔𝒐𝒖𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒓𝒔 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 2023……𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒃𝒂𝒅 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒔𝒂𝒅𝒎𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒃𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒇𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒈𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒂𝒈𝒆....... 

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 12 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔. 𝑺𝒐, 𝒕𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒏 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒕 𝒃𝒆𝒍𝒕!!

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒕 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒑-𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 :𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒕𝒉, 𝑳𝒐𝒗𝒆, 𝑱𝒐𝒚, 𝑯𝒂𝒓𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒚, 𝒘𝒆𝒍𝒍-𝒃𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒆. 𝑻𝒉𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒖 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒆𝒅 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕....... 

𝑨 𝑪𝒐𝒄𝒌𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒍 𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒑 

𝑨 𝑺𝒖𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒕𝒉 

𝑨 𝑮𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 

𝑨 𝑩𝒐𝒘𝒍 𝒐𝒇 𝑬𝒙𝒄𝒆𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑵𝒆𝒘𝒔

𝑨 𝒔𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒅 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔 

𝑨 𝑪𝒂𝒌𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒔𝒔 

𝑨𝒍𝒍 𝒂𝒄𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒊𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒚 𝒃𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒕𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒂𝒖𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒓...... 

𝑾𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒂𝒎𝒊lies 𝒂n 𝒆𝒏𝒋𝒐𝒚𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒑 𝒐𝒏 𝒃𝒐𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 2024……

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Now the ukmo is exactly what im looking for!!no more oh second bite of this and that we just killing off time again!!!!gfs looks  to topple again!!!!and yes again some will say on here there shall be a renewed second bout of amplification but a lot of the time it never arrives!!!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will the Atlantic ridge climb towards the polar region or flop down towards us at 168…..,,

Hopefully, the WAA doesn’t really get going on the other models till T168 ish - so maybe some help to really create a cut off high 🤞

Edited by Ali1977
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Now the ukmo is exactly what im looking for!!no more oh second bite of this and that we just killing off time again!!!!gfs looks  to topple again!!!!and yes again some will say on here there shall be a renewed second bout of amplification but a lot of the time it never arrives!!!

UKMO is what we want.

Only issue is GFS/ICON are similar so UKMO looks the outlier solution,as it stands.

Massive ECM later..

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