Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[That ECM]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's only out to 144h and I said unlikely that we will have a strong Easterly by day 10 not that it definitely wont happen.

Strong easterly? You are talking about a sinking high.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

The SSW was critical IMO but what do I know, others are saying that isn’t the case. IMO it would have aided a more -AO as it was happening just like the 2013 event did.

Agreed with this., I was also slapped on the wrist for suggesting the SSW not landing was game changer for early to mid January.. it would have impacted pretty darn quick following Canada warming..

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

I remember the consensus was absolutely none of this a week ago

Sorry if I have read you wrong but is this a dig at me? Because I am not in control of the output changing over the course of a week so I shouldn't be belittled when it does.

[swfc-ocs]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

The SSW was critical IMO but what do I know, others are saying that isn’t the case. IMO it would have aided a more -AO as it was happening just like the 2013 event did.

It wasnt and nothing has changed ie the strat. Give it time

[Ali1977]

UKMO has it, the GFS can be binned. The GEFS will hopefully leave the op as an outlier - AGAIN

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, That ECM said:

Strong easterly? You are talking about a sinking high.

Yes sinking high which is why I said strong Easterly.

[Alexis]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Sorry if I have read you wrong but is this a dig at me? Because I am not in control of the output changing over the course of a week so I shouldn't be belittled when it does.

No mate, hence the emojis

[Polar Maritime]

OK chaps back to model output discussion please, Not who said what and when. Nothing has happened yet so knowbody is correct, Not even the Models...

Edited December 31, 2023 by Polar Maritime

[Battleground Snow]

Awesome 168 ukmo as expected 

Roll on 630pm for ecm 

Won't let me upload 168 for some reason, have uploaded 156

Edited December 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[JeffC]

 well there's a fair old warm sector at 10 hpa right now over  Eastern Russia

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

But who the hell wants that progession!!!  If ecm follows ukmo how confident would we be then? 

For a good easterly we need agreement right through. I'm 70/30 in favour of the GFS/ICON. That is probabilistic approach leaving all options possible.

[bluearmy]

The two lows off the eastern seaboard are causing some issues around days 4/5

These are the two where the modelling a couple days ago was delivering runs with two Atlantic ridges either side of a trough - considered  v unlikely  at the time but still these systems are causing problems. If the systems phase together then it allows stronger WAA and there is nothing to stop the ridge gaining traction mid Atlantic 

if the first one simply runs ne because it’s quicker and the second doesn’t catch it up then it puts pressure on the  growing ridge and it likely topples across the U.K. - although some indications that it could extend into the scandi surface high and bring a weak easterly flow 

And we can’t rely on ec or the eps suite to give any certainty either. Although ec got the last esb will it/ won’t it correct pre Xmas, that doesn’t mean it will here.  Hoping that the gfs general problem with split flow is affecting its solution. 

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by bluearmy

[Mr Marky Marky]

168 hours UKMO . Nom nom  

[Ali1977]

Boooooom - please by correct 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Awesome 168 ukmo as expected 

Roll on 630pm for ecm 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The SSW was critical IMO but what do I know, others are saying that isn’t the case. IMO it would have aided a more -AO as it was happening just like the 2013 event did.

I do think it will turn cold under that high and I'm not completely discounting the ECM/UKMO just yet, just stating probably the least likely outcome.

[Cloud 10]

UKMO 168 HRS.

 

[Daniel*]

Worth stressing how badly GFS is performing some of worst scores of year. The issue with this model it runs four times a day and goes out to day 16, people naturally assume it is most likely to catch up on something. 

[Cloud 10]

Can someone post the UKMO 168 chart please.

[That ECM]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

Can someone post the UKMO 168 chart please.

What time is out?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Can someone post the UKMO 168 chart please.

Pretty mild

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

For a good easterly we need agreement right through. I'm 70/30 in favour of the GFS/ICON. That is probabilistic approach leaving all options possible.

To be fair you are probably right about the first blocking high days 7-9 it does look like it will now sink, to what degree we don't know.

Even as good as the UKMO looks at 144h there's no saying that won't sink either?? And we are yet to see the ECM 00z. For me the key will be the next blocking high days 13-15!

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

UKMO 168 HRS.

 

Is that the makings of an omega ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair your are probably right about the first blocking high days 7-9 it does look like it will now sink, to what degree we don't know.

Even as good as the UKMO looks at 144h there's no saying that won't sink either?? And we are yet to see the ECM 00z. For me the key will be the next blocking high days 13-15!

Next chance will be later Jan

Though I’ve just checked the GFS strat output and I personally wouldn’t bank on that either with SPV sat over the pole.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I do think it will turn cold under that high and I'm not completely discounting the ECM/UKMO just yet, just stating probably the least likely outcome.

In fairness you were also very confident of strong Iberian heights ruining any hope of cold so.. 

Do think you’re a little too over confident at times on the back of a few det runs.