Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[stewfox]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeh certainly no complaints from me,

Good runs this morning, good to see the back of those gfs runs from yesterday too

Those lovely blues are across the whole of UK at 228 on 0z run ,not so on 18z run. Nothing to be alarmed about.

[Scott Ingham]

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 240 is a hemispherically very  cold pattern by the way, would be a slow way back to mild from there .

Ukmo at 168 is very nice too

 

[Snowmad79]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

I disagree, Yes they show the decent snowfall event which has been shunted further south but the shortwave development near Iceland is now down to 120 hrs and the UKMO is now edging towards that by 168 hrs. We could be seeing the re-opening of the Atlantic steam train soon. I wont be dissappointed either way. Now interested to see the ECM's take on things.

 

[stewfox]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

In some of these battle ground scenarios height is always useful.

I'm off now to take up my position for next week. Happy model watching. 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

I think a slight downgrade in the synoptics / high latitude pressure has increased the risk of very disruptive snow events.

This is because this allows more moisture to be fed into the south of the UK. 

Edited January 10 by Kasim Awan

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, stewfox said:

In some of these battle ground scenarios height is always useful.

I'm off now to take up my position for next week. Happy model watching. 

Hahahah sounds like a plan Stew!

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I think a slight downgrade in the synoptics / high latitude pressure has increased the risk of very disruptive snow events.

For longevity I agree but as far as snow is concerned it’s fantastic! And next week is still on course for a cold and snowy spell 

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO D7…all the ingredients for a snowstorm shortly after at D8.

I’d say if you’re in the Midlands you’ve got a good chance of a decent snowfall next week.

[Lukesluckybunch]

 

Nice upgrade on the mean at 156..the angle of attack looks much better!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

UKMO D7…all the ingredients for a snowstorm shortly after at D8.

I’d say if you’re in the Midlands you’ve got a good chance of a decent snowfall next week.

No one knows yet where exactly it could be. 

[That ECM]

Ukmo and gfs T 168. They have moved towards each other. The 850’s difference will look a bigger move by gfs. Still not done but a good start.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

No one knows yet where exactly it could be. 

I’d put Midlands favourite at the moment, purely because it’s far enough N to likely be in the cold air and far enough S to ensure precipitation from the LP.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

No one knows yet where exactly it could be. 

Midlands South I reckon..

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Midlands South I reckon..

I agree that’s my best cast only because historically I’ve seen so many of these track further south

[NorthYorksWeather]

0z GEFS 168 mean

Slightly better than the 18z when comparing heights into Greenland from the Atlantic.

[That ECM]

Gem and icon say why are people guessing the track of day 8 low? Could be Paris.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Give it a couple of days..I'm sure the met will put out some early warnings!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Gem and icon say why are people guessing the track of day 8 low? Could be Paris.

We can start analysing the path now.

Historically these features are picked up fairly accurately at lengthy timescales.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Look forward to the Met updates at the weekend hopefully for the jackpot down South

 

The South is in the game if the GFs 0z run is to be believed.

Edited January 10 by prolongedSnowLover

[That ECM]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We can start analysing the path now.

Historically these features are picked up fairly accurately at lengthy timescales.

Agree you can start analysing. The Day 8 ish track of a low? I think we are long way from any accuracy. How long is lengthy timescales for you?

Edited January 10 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

Absolutely brilliant mean day 8

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Last evenings ensembles show that the 18z GFS op was on the mild side for both London and Oslo in the crucial medium term and therefore being over-progressive.

Will be interesting to see if some of that has reduced this morning ?

Edited January 10 by prolongedSnowLover

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gem and icon say why are people guessing the track of day 8 low? Could be Paris.

The GEM is run of the day, longjevity and multiple snow events for a week after that chart.

[KTtom]

Maybe some sort of model agreement for day 7/8 (slightly better than day 10!!) with low pressure starting to make inroads from the south west. Not too much excitement before then for the south, as mentioned above that shortwave is a pain as it cuts off the northerly flow briefly so its a race against time for the cold uppers to head south again before the low hits (if indeed it does). 

Edited January 10 by KTtom

[NorthYorksWeather]

0z GEFS Short Ensembles for North Yorkshire show good agreement for the plunge arriving late on Sunday and mean staying below -5 throughout. Once again the operational is at the top end of the pack so potential for some further cold upgrades across the GFS today.