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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

Day 8 and the cold air comes back flooding south across all areas. 
 

IMG_7572.thumb.png.aaba557c2d04eb2d4485fbc7a7485184.pngIMG_7573.thumb.png.ee469567376e8333d93033f04fac6868.png

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

Well, there you have it, EC is finally moving towards that surface high that delays the northerly at D6-7:

image.thumb.png.26f2847a921156d3aef7ae346f22766a.png

It has proven again that it is no longer the top dog. The low from the Azores now moving towards the UK, and 850s are disappointing at D7:

image.thumb.png.0e23dfe5e9f00c1b3fd507c48e6449c2.png

GFS clearly as of 0z better modelling in the last two days.

Yes as I said last night even if it's just 1 or 2 runs and isolated ignore any run at your peril

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144. Micro analysis beyond is fi 

IMG_1004.png

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IMG_1002.png

Agree this is about the limit of the semi-reliable at the moment.  UKMO and ECM have been consistent with the cleaner profile to the ridge in Greenland, which probably does mean that GFS is making a mess of things here.  Add GEM to the UKMO and ECM camp this morning, at T144 (the GEM is actually a very good run):

IMG_8434.thumb.png.7b33322296ee13aae16880d624fb96d6.png

It is at this point we lose the long reach northerly and things get a bit more convoluted - and the models go their separate ways with that, but what’s changed this morning, is that the cold air seems more likely rather than less likely to persist through that messier evolution T144-T240.  Which gives some chance of persistence, and, snow!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, all output has shifted to the GFS at day 6/7.

So gfs has stayed where it was and everything else has moved?

They are converging on a similar theme. 

IMG_0959.png

IMG_1008.png

IMG_1007.png

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smith25 Contributor

smith25

Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
Posted

To my utter lack of surprise the models are now coming together to some middle ground.  This is what happens almost every time with these types of events.  Yet people always get caught up in the drama.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Baring in mind it turns colder beyond this, at T174 the U.K. gets plastered. M4 north of course!! But could then shift south 

IMG_2585.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Let us see if EC takes us to a place different from the GFS after this delay. I'm not sure there is much certainty post this delayed northerly if we look at the GEFS and GEM. This is unsurprising, as a low(s) undercutting can be difficult until D2-3 to model.

We are at least now more confident of D6-7.

EC: maybe sleet to rain to snow at D7-8?

Then D9:

image.thumb.png.6dae2977909370f1c861ae9ceaf5d7e9.pngECE1-216.GIF-3.thumb.png.90ece459de3725961c1c4202e0c66510.png

 

 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Agree this is about the limit of the semi-reliable at the moment.  UKMO and ECM have been consistent with the cleaner profile to the ridge in Greenland, which probably does mean that GFS is making a mess of things here.  Add GEM to the UKMO and ECM camp this morning, at T144 (the GEM is actually a very good run):

IMG_8434.thumb.png.7b33322296ee13aae16880d624fb96d6.png

It is at this point we lose the long reach northerly and things get a bit more convoluted - and the models go their separate ways with that, but what’s changed this morning, is that the cold air seems more likely rather than less likely to persist through that messier evolution T144-T240.  Which gives some chance of persistence, and, snow!

Indeed this is very snowy this ecm run somewhere with cold air still over us at day 9!

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

192 ❄😍

ECM1-192 (3).gif

You’ll be coming up to meet us at Lion Inn on North York Moors again if that comes off Kasim. 👍

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, smith25 said:

To my utter lack of surprise the models are now coming together to some middle ground.  This is what happens almost every time with these types of events.  Yet people always get caught up in the drama.

Getting caught up in the drama is why we’re here.  What makes it interesting.  

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

This is a very snowy ECM 😍

IMG_2586.png

IMG_2587.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

This is a very snowy ECM 😍

IMG_2586.png

IMG_2587.png

Looks like it has trended nicely south from yesterday mornings 240 and last nights 240 ?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I would say at D9 there are differences:

gfseu-0-216-2.thumb.png.8869fe41e005e0b75f838d53773d11a3.pnggemeu-0-216-2.thumb.png.245a842492ddc5558d8c5c58b51ad5ac.pngECE1-216.GIF-3.thumb.png.7491849969e7bda6b1bb85d98376ff59.png

GFS - GEM - EC

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Very widespread disruption there ⛄️🛷

IMG_2585.png

IMG_2588.png

IMG_2589.png

IMG_2590.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

I would say at D9 there are differences:

gfseu-0-216-2.thumb.png.8869fe41e005e0b75f838d53773d11a3.pnggemeu-0-216-2.thumb.png.245a842492ddc5558d8c5c58b51ad5ac.pngECE1-216.GIF-3.thumb.png.7491849969e7bda6b1bb85d98376ff59.png

GFS - GEM - EC

 

Various snowy themes..details and location to be confirmed.. what a ride we are in for rest of this week and weekend. Far better than a zonal train that's settled fir next 2 weeks

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GokouD Enthusiast

GokouD

Posted
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Cold, Thunder, Heat
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Very widespread disruption there ⛄️🛷

IMG_2585.png

IMG_2588.png

IMG_2589.png

IMG_2590.png

Now that's a chart I can get behind! Rain line gets a bit too close for comfort IMBY, but I guess that's the risk you take to end up in the purples.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, smith25 said:

The models are what make it interesting,  not the flip flopping drama queens who snipe at each other.

I meant the models. They are the real drama queens, particularly the GFS!

A good run from ECM, I think it and UKMO have done better with the earlier evolution.  But, as others have said, and why it is right not to ignore persistent signals from any model, for the medium term part of the evolution, they have moved to a middle ground, which now looks to me like a greater chance of snow for many.  But it is one which will take some time to work out the small detail of.

Edited by Mike Poole
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Day 7 is an eternity as far as precipitation is concerned.  The track of the low is yet to be confirmed - let's see the spread in the ensembles.  ECM is a very good run with the the Midlands / North getting hammered with snow.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Various snowy themes..details and location to be confirmed.. what a ride we are in for rest of this week and weekend. Far better than a zonal train that's settled fir next 2 weeks

Yes, it makes a nice change. Hoping this is reinforced in subsequent runs.

The scatter in the ensembles suggests ups and downs for the next few days regarding post-D6-7 output. GEFS for London:

graphe3_10000_311_150___.thumb.gif.185eb0b6c5222130a4c052c269175d4e.gifgraphe6_10000_311_150___.thumb.gif.dff82e574a8b9d5defcc661ecdc047d9.gifgraphe4_10000_311_150___.thumb.gif.441bb477f35f7988cb1ce584f2a0af58.gif

There are all sorts of solutions in there, and low confidence inter or cross model as of 0z today.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted

I must’ve got out on the wrong side of bed as I’m surprised by the overall level of positivity for this mornings runs. 

Must be because most of the morning crew are northerners!

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