Moans, ramps and banter

[Challock Weather]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Agreed I remember in march 2013, two systems like the one on Wednesday were possible, they placed a red warning on the first one, but it went to France. The second one got a red warning too, and did hit east Sussex and Kent, but people ignored the warning and got stuck on the M20, a20, M2 and probably everywhere else.

Very true. Problem is people in general always think they know better.... Anyway there's been some very certain opinions on here today - let's see how well they age come T zero

[JimBob]

20 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

They are probably being very cautious. A few tens of miles it’s the difference between some of the heaviest snow this region has seen since 2010 and absolutely nothing. Issuing a warm for nothing to happen would be damaging from a credibility perspective.  Would expect warnings not to be issued until Tuesday, if at all - unless there’s a big northward shift. 

 

 

More the fact that there is zero risk of anything happening down south! 

[MJB]

25 minutes ago, Gadje said:

That because they dont live here. Huge differences in the weather in various parts of Scotland were you interested enough not to generalise.

Not interested at all if I am being frank.

For me it's about MBY, sorry if that's selfish. 

Most people would say " big deal " when being told there is snow up North.

[SilverWolf]

4 minutes ago, JimBob said:

25 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

They are probably being very cautious. A few tens of miles it’s the difference between some of the heaviest snow this region has seen since 2010 and absolutely nothing. Issuing a warm for nothing to happen would be damaging from a credibility perspective.  Would expect warnings not to be issued until Tuesday, if at all - unless there’s a big northward shift. 

 

 

More the fact that there is zero risk of anything happening down south! 

Even later in the day on 10th Dec 22, there was a slight risk of a few light snow showers by morning where I am. Had 7 inches of snow on the morning of the 11th.. 

Edited January 14 by SilverWolf

[Taylorthesnowman]

Just now, MJB said:

Not interested at all if I am being frank.

For me it's about MBY, sorry if that's selfish. 

Most people would say " big deal " when being told there is snow up North.

They'd be very wrong to say big deal as it doesn't happen as often as southerners seem to think. I lived in South london for seven years and saw more falling snow there than I have since I've been back in Liverpool.

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

They'd be very wrong to say big deal as it doesn't happen as often as southerners seem to think. I lived in South london for seven years and saw more falling snow there than I have since I've been back in Liverpool.

I didn't say every square inch up North lol , I know full well areas don't get snow. Saint on TWO moans like mad he misses snow so it is of no surprise you have mentioned the infrequency in Liverpool 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, shawty1984 said:

Northern areas as a whole, obviously as a general rule its warmer the more south you go. We are talking about certain places though. So for instance, without looking at facts, I'd say Kent gets more snow than Teesside. 

North East especially the coast is very North Sea dominated so just tends to be cold, wet and cloudy in Winter as opposed to snowy. 

It's a bit like Bergen in Norway vs more Inland areas.

[JoeShmoe]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Not interested at all if I am being frank.

For me it's about MBY, sorry if that's selfish. 

Most people would say " big deal " when being told there is snow up North.

Don’t forget (and you may not care granted) this works in reverse in the summer when the south gets long warm sunny days and it’s dull pish north of Carlisle 

[johncam]

Latest Met has some wet snow then sleet for us Tuesday , that's looking like it for this cold spell that we have been chasing for ever it seems , very disappointing to be honest 

[Chasbrown]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest Met has some wet snow then sleet for us Tuesday , that's looking like it for this cold spell that we have been chasing for ever it seems , very disappointing to be honest 

Join the club! Bitterly disappointed but used to it by now.

[DJ Fart]

You know the writing is on the wall when you pop on and see "75 members are currently online". It was up to about 200 at times last week...probably a better indicator of how things are looking than any model! Ha ha!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Not interested at all if I am being frank.

For me it's about MBY, sorry if that's selfish. 

Most people would say " big deal " when being told there is snow up North.

I think everyone naturally has a predisposition for their own region/area, as it's the place of most immediate concern...

But I think it's a bit remiss to be on a Weather enthusiast's forum if you have zero care/interest in the weather across the country generally, including areas which have climates slightly varying from your own area's (SE England vs NW Scotland for example)

Edited January 14 by In Absence of True Seasons

[raz.org.rain]

A general sense of resounding defeat among the model chasers today, I'm guessing February isn't expected to deliver anything spectacular?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 hours ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

I'll take it if it comes.better than nothing 

Probably best to have more holidays in Scandinavia, the Alps or Canada going forward.

Can never fall for the endless ramping on MOD ever again.

[Bradowl]

6 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

A general sense of resounding defeat among the model chasers today, I'm guessing February isn't expected to deliver anything spectacular?

February is over a fortnight away, it might deliver some very wintry weather and it might deliver wet and/or mild weather, no one knows right now, if models can get everything wrong 7-10 days away they ain't worth looking at 14-21 days away. 

Edited January 14 by Bradowl

[Bogman]

2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

For the north the cold spell is just beginning. Maybe be only 3-5 days but there's a chance of snow. Not trying to rub it in but this forum would have you believe there is no cold spell at all which isn't true!

There’s always snow up north, and south will have the heat in the summer.

Tis as it always is.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Another failed January.

 

PATHETIC.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Bogman said:

There’s always snow up north, and south will have the heat in the summer.

Tis as it always is.

The degree of heat is new in the South.

Never used to get above 35c before so easily.

The m0dern cl1m4te is pathetic.

[Drifter]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I've warned before they don't always lead to cold, and can also spoil what are good synoptics if there before the warming. I n ver even look there, it's a real shame how things seem to be going down.

It seems to me that there’s ’always an excuse’ for when a cold spell flops that somehow explains away the teleconnections?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

February is over a fortnight away, it might deliver some very wintry weather and it might deliver wet and/or mild weather, no one knows right now, if models can get everything wrong 7-10 days away they ain't worth looking at 14-21 days away. 

Feb I'd be happy with Spring warmth, or snow chances, just not wet and windy

[Chasbrown]

For sale, snow shovel, 14 years old and never used. Almost mint condition bar the cobwebs. No sensible offer refused. Delivery, eventually, by Royal Mail. 

[Snowandrocks]

Happy enough with how this spell is going so far - it's been snowing for most of the day with more fresh snow forecast everyday at least until Thursday. 

This idiot is seemingly enjoying things too! 

 

[Bogman]

15 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The degree of heat is new in the South.

Never used to get above 35c before so easily.

The m0dern cl1m4te is pathetic.

True, heat is increasing two-fold.

Roll on spring, had enough of cleaning my white car.

[raz.org.rain]

Makes you wonder... if such mild conditions are so easily established against what are supposedly the best background signals for a blocked and cold winter, how can we correct for that? Do we simply concede and say "good signals for below average, but expect mild and above average"? LRFs calling a mixed summer, but I do wonder if we'll end up with a much drier and hotter summer than is being suggested.

[James1979]

5 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

There's been plenty of ramping for cold and snow, which admittedly even I got a bit caught up in when the modelling looked promising (though I never bought into the deep freeze some were suggesting). Ironically, it now looks like very few areas will see snow. Additionally, any that does settle won't stick around very long as the warmup is coming next weekend. To top it all off, in addition we have exceptionally mild scenarios building support in the ensembles for the tail end of the month as I've said over on the model thread. Even the ensemble means deliver widespread double-digit maxima, and some of the more extreme scenarios deliver 15C. You really couldn't make it up!

You could definitely make it up, it happens every year for at least the last 15 years. Its regular as clockwork. The climate has changed a while back now and mild/warm will always be the form horse. Thankfully I stopped getting led up the garden path and crushed by the usual model failure (or reality) for snow a long time back. Far easier to expect mild or dry cold these days and very rarely a snowy blip will materialise. Less stress...

Edited January 14 by James1979