Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, andy989 said:

I see some people are saying “February has always been the main period of interest”. The gaslighting is strong in the Mod thread. I for one have not forgotten the same people banging the 2010/1963 drum since November. 

I wouldn't say it's the main period of interest, but it certainly can deliver snow on many years. 

Most of the larger / longer snow events I can remember in my area occurred during a February 

[Matty88]

Sooo... after the dismal charts at the end of last week I thought I'd let the weekend pass and check again Monday. I've checked... it's still dismal lol 

All I can see is a powerhouse jet streaking across the atlantic at us whilst HP bases itself over France/Western Europe, slight improvement as it amplifies slightly North at the end of the month, then back to square one with Atlantic influence.... yay lol 

I have to say though, (if you want to be optimistic), the charts are not that great at long term forecasting in my opinion and this is across the board - they tend to always jump on the form horse and repeat that set-up until day 10+. The caveat in the bleakness is that a flip to something better is always possible/probable -  Lets try and be positive (although it's extremely difficult at present!)  ....

Maybe check back again Friday and see if they've snapped out of Atlantic Jet Turbo mode! 

 

[Don]

Appears the chances of a cold February are now fading so looks like another winter down the tubes is likely to be on the cards for cold seekers, despite a couple of cold weeks with disappointing snow event for most!

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Sooo... after the dismal charts at the end of last week I thought I'd let the weekend pass and check again Monday. I've checked... it's still dismal lol 

All I can see is a powerhouse jet streaking across the atlantic at us whilst HP bases itself over France/Western Europe, slight improvement as it amplifies slightly North at the end of the month, then back to square one with Atlantic influence.... yay lol 

I have to say though, (if you want to be optimistic), the charts are not that great at long term forecasting in my opinion and this is across the board - they tend to always jump on the form horse and repeat that set-up until day 10+. The caveat in the bleakness is that a flip to something better is always possible/probable -  Lets try and be positive (although it's extremely difficult at present!)  ....

Maybe check back again Friday and see if they've snapped out of Atlantic Jet Turbo mode! 

 

And then you get people talking about the possibility of spring and summer having below average conditions. If that were to materialise it would surely make for one of the worst two year periods for weather in a long time, bar June and September last year. It really would be an end of days type scenario to just have a continuation of autumn (again).

[raz.org.rain]

Oh, well that's not a good sign if you want cold

[Don]

6 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

And then you get people talking about the possibility of spring and summer having below average conditions. If that were to materialise it would surely make for one of the worst two year periods for weather in a long time, bar June and September last year. It really would be an end of days type scenario to just have a continuation of autumn (again).

I've not heard that?

[raz.org.rain]

47 minutes ago, Don said:

I've not heard that?

There's multiple mentions of it scattered about, most of it is hyperbole I'd suspect but some have shared charts with their comments. Hopefully they're wrong as we get a decent hot summer.

[Don]

Just now, raz.org.rain said:

There's multiple mentions of it scattered about, most of it is hyperbole I'd suspect but some have shared charts with their comments. Hopefully they're wrong as we get a decent hot summer.

More chance of that than cool and wet.

[raz.org.rain]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

More chance of that than cool and wet.

Above average is the safe bet these days, plus it would be very highly unusual to see a year without some hot spells. Given how this winter has rolled out, it'd be safe to assume that we'll be getting a lot of synoptics that favour above average weather winning out over any hypothetical below average synoptics.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

35 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

There's multiple mentions of it scattered about, most of it is hyperbole I'd suspect but some have shared charts with their comments. Hopefully they're wrong as we get a decent hot summer.

There's literally zero point at this stage in trying to conclude the type of Spring we'll get this year, let alone summer...

As for the charts, well, considering how 'firmly-cemented' the charts just gone for the cold/wintry spell were, with snow 'guaranteed' even still like 2/3days out, only for it all to collapse like a house of chocolate cards on a radiator, that'll tell you how much faith to place in any charts about weather that's going to happen in 6 months time.

Pure crystal ball type stuff lol.

Don is correct though in that - purely going from a statistical standpoint - there's more chance of this summer being warmer and drier, than cooler and wetter, at least moreso than 2023, because the bar from that summer is very low...It'd be truly rare and downright unlucky to get another high-summer season like last year's. 

As for now, well, winter is still here to stay for some time. We shall wait and see.

[stainesbloke]

Snow thawing here in Czechia quite quickly now, as the milder Atlantic air moves in. Not looking particularly wintry for the foreseeable, just like the UK. If it’s going to be mild, please let there be some decent sunny spells, at least

[Chasbrown]

Just hoping for a decent August for a change!

[RJBingham]

Anyone notice the change in the met office long range  

snow and ice, now very low chance, won't be long until it will disappear altogether   

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, RJBingham said:

Anyone notice the change in the met office long range  

snow and ice, now very low chance, won't be long until it will disappear altogether   

Yup.

Winter is over it would appear with the vast majority not seeing a flake or if they did only fleeting.

The expansion of the Hadley cells overiding and favourable teleconnections with snow and ice now increasingly a Scottish only affair  

[Weather Enthusiast91]

20 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Just hoping for a decent August for a change!

August 2022 was decent, though I do agree it would be nice to have another decent one as there haven't been many decent Augusts over the last 20 or so years.

Since 2004, only 2016 and 2022 stand out as being decent.

Edited January 22 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Appears the chances of a cold February are now fading so looks like another winter down the tubes is likely to be on the cards for cold seekers, despite a couple of cold weeks with disappointing snow event for most!

This is why I don't hold my hopes up anymore when it comes to cold. It almost always gets watered down, pushed back or cancelled altogether. 

Milder than average on the other hand almost always verifies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

This is why I don't hold my hopes up anymore when it comes to cold. It almost always gets watered down, pushed back or cancelled altogether. 

Milder than average on the other hand almost always verifies.

don't mind this early Spring, but this will downgrade to 9 and windy/wet

[Don]

30 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Anyone notice the change in the met office long range  

snow and ice, now very low chance, won't be long until it will disappear altogether   

Well, you had better hope there are not similar changes in the summer months backing away from a warm/settled spell, otherwise it will be this 

[CharlieBear9]

33 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Anyone notice the change in the met office long range  

snow and ice, now very low chance, won't be long until it will disappear altogether   

The posters in the Met Office thread seem to have noticed, strangely enough.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

This is why I don't hold my hopes up anymore when it comes to cold. It almost always gets watered down, pushed back or cancelled altogether. 

Milder than average on the other hand almost always verifies.

This has really been on the cards since pre-Christmas when the possible cold Christmas to New Year period failed to materialise!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 minute ago, Don said:

This has really been on the cards since pre-Christmas when the possible cold Christmas to New Year period failed to materialise!

I think searching for a needle in a haystack is easier than searching for cold these days. 

[stainesbloke]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, you had better hope there are not similar changes in the summer months backing away from a warm/settled spell, otherwise it will be this 

There was plenty of that last summer! Some people  

[stainesbloke]

34 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

This is why I don't hold my hopes up anymore when it comes to cold. It almost always gets watered down, pushed back or cancelled altogether. 

Milder than average on the other hand almost always verifies.

Disappointing for those of us that enjoy seasonal weather during the whole year. Still time for a decent cold/snowy spell, of course. A month is a long time in meteorology

[raz.org.rain]

56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup.

Winter is over it would appear with the vast majority not seeing a flake or if they did only fleeting.

The expansion of the Hadley cells overiding and favourable teleconnections with snow and ice now increasingly a Scottish only affair  

Hopefully those Hadley cells place us firmly under the influence of Iberian highs throughout 2024.

30 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, you had better hope there are not similar changes in the summer months backing away from a warm/settled spell, otherwise it will be this 

I wonder if there's an actual realistic prospect of this happening?

[Don]

57 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think searching for a needle in a haystack is easier than searching for cold these days. 

Searching for sustained cold these days is like searching for a needle in a haystack and then finding out there is no needle! 

55 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

There was plenty of that last summer! Some people  

Not from me.

32 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I wonder if there's an actual realistic prospect of this happening?

As to warm/settled spells being downgraded, this happened a lot in July and August last year, following the record breaking warm June.  However, with intense heat often building over Europe in recent years, there's always a chance the UK will tap into it at some point.

A hot summer is far more likely than a cold winter now.