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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

Typo indeed. Thanks for pointing it out😉

In respect of the pattern, I am very interested in the stratospheric lead as the second half of the winter approaches and under the tropospheric considerations as laid out again in todays summary and which other GSDM analysis from @Met4Castand @Catacolare equally observing.

There is so much poleward tropospheric ammunition to hand, it does make one wonder how the polar field will respond in respect of persistent diminution bombardment. There is an argument for suggesting that too much forcing can actually alter usual pathway responses. But the GSDM diagnostic fully evidences the latest seasonal updates such as from Glosea.

The kayaks and shuffled polar roadblock are emphatically there to see.

@Tamara are you and @tight isobar related perhaps ? 😂

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

This would do nicely for those in central areas but plenty of time for adjustments and possibly trends southward / northward. Anyone really is in for a chance of significant snow currently into next week.

image.png

Just my opinion of course I think it will travel south through the channel and will be all snow for our South Coast contingent. 😀 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, IDO said:

On this run, the Azores low is further north, and its initial front looks like it will be rain for much of the south:

image.thumb.png.3f0be7683877013f8c1fbf7095a95d2e.pngimage.thumb.png.47325142786ba3425e7457ac5265c4d0.png

Yep.   Another option from the pack.

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Yep.   Another option from the pack.

Cold air is pushing is South quickly behind it though so should be very cold again after.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The NH profiles D7 less helpful on this run by D6-7:

gfsnh-0-162-3.thumb.png.53905ae7d03ef646862677e560eba8cf.pnggfsnh-0-168-2.thumb.png.cb494edbaaa5f98c693d9026b3b626cc.png

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Nick123 Aficionado

Nick123

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Yep.   Another option from the pack.

Unfortunately always going to be winners and losers with Atlantic incursions, but I'd bank this for the north

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Yep.   Another option from the pack.

So long as it goes under then we all back cold after a day and bit rain in South and heavy snow midlands

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted (edited)

UKMO 144...interesting where it will go next but better than the 12z GFS, if that pattern was 500 miles further south then bingo!

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Froze were the Days
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The sweet spot at D7: image.thumb.png.d66884413a2a357d0888edf7721cd899.png

Cold air winning by then...

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DJ Fart Aficionado

DJ Fart

Posted
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
Posted
9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Scott Ingham day still looking good! Although could be a day or 2 out in regards to largest impacts!

Oh mate, you can't use the name yourself! 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)

Great run for extensive snowfall for the midlands. And back end snow for the south.  But so far away no point really in looking. Snowfall could be anywhere. Everyone still has a ticket 

Edited by weirpig
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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
7 minutes ago, Jacob said:

GFS 12z so far looks more at the mercy of the Atlantic and the shortwave south west of us is further north east and is more developed 

Just a tad further north then perfection ❄️

GFSOPUK12_174_53.thumb.png.054a70e7deb8c59db9a06706b8d34067.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

T180, and it's north of the M4 so far.

image.thumb.png.14634f4ed2d068daa9f5eecb6dbbf835.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Here's this week's Met. Office Ten-Day Trend, which mostly cites the GFS and ECM. It's nae three bad! 😲

 

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, Bats32 said:

I think the low will end up trending south, that's what usually happens closer to the time.

UKMO has it quite a bit further South than the GFS 12z, looks very cold.

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Jacob Enthusiast

Jacob

Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Mild, sunny winters/stormy, snowy winters and warm, dry summers
  • Location: Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, IDO said:

T180, and it's north of the M4 so far.

image.thumb.png.14634f4ed2d068daa9f5eecb6dbbf835.png

Seems more like north of London

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Wales and Midlands get the pasting from the snow on this run…would even catch a few inches here

image.thumb.png.47284446267079daf3d21773d2a9ddfb.png

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Gary2701 Apprentice

Gary2701

Posted
  • Location: Swinton Greater Manchester
  • Location: Swinton Greater Manchester
Posted

I can not believe this.  When it all kicks off here I will be in 25c  down in the Canaries. Guess If I cancel the insurance won't pay out as I go tomorrow!!!!!!

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

At D8 by the time the front/low has been pushed back down south, we can see the hot zone for snow on this run:

image.thumb.png.968ff64bbcd781bc93d27a0f7bd24739.png

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

I think the low will end up trending south, that's what usually happens closer to the time.

Used to be the case with the likes of Shropshire, Birmingham, Leictester getting all the snow in these setups. But in recent years it has been Central UK like Leeds, Sheffield, Halifax, Doncaster getting all the snow.

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Nick123 Aficionado

Nick123

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted
Just now, Gary2701 said:

I can not believe this.  When it all kicks off here I will be in 25c  down in the Canaries. Guess If I cancel the insurance won't pay out as I go tomorrow!!!!!!

If you cancelled you can guaranteed it would go wrong lol

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted

The initial northerly is starting to look tamer and rather short lived on the 12z's, this has to be taken into consideration when viewing the subsequent cold push from the north for midweek too, really not keen on where the UKMO and GFS are heading. 

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