Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Geordiesnow]

Apart from a few minor differences, the GFS 12Z run is pretty identical to the 06Z run. Going by the models, an indicator what might happen with the frontal snow event is if the initial northerly is not as strong(in terms of wind flow) then it's makes it easier for any Atlantic front coming up from the SW but if it is stronger like the UKMO then the second push of lower heights will push that attack from the front further southwards.

So still some minor disagreement on the first northerly which of course leads to consequences down the line.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Oh mate, you can't use the name yourself! 

I just did! Hahaha!

[MagicOtter]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Great run for extensive snowfall for the midlands. And back end snow for the south.  But so far away no point really in looking. Snowfall could be anywhere. Everyone still has a ticket 

All models point to cold rain in Cornwall - I want a refund on that ticket 

[JakeWorces]

Looks like the typical kind of set-up that gives this high-up Midlands area the kind of heavy snowfalls that my friends in other parts of the country are always so jealous of. 
Let's hope that low doesn't track any further north though 
 

[SussexSnow]

12 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Just my opinion of course I think it will travel south through the channel and will be all snow for our South Coast contingent.  

May I quote you on that?

Oh I have

[terrier]

Ideally we won’t that low as far south as possible to keep us locked into the cold airmass. 

[Gary2701]

I better go then so you guys get the snow.  I can make these small sacrifices for the greater good!!!

[That ECM]

Someone should plot the low on a graph where gfs ecm and ukmo have it on each run. 

 

[Ice Day]

Just a quick one from me as off out, but the GEM at 180 is looking really good.

 

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, terrier said:

Ideally we won’t that low as far south as possible to keep us locked into the cold airmass. 

I'd rather get the big dumping of snow first mate, then I would be content even if that was the last of the snow for me!

Problem is you can keep missing out while same places get hit time and time again.

[TSNWK]

I look at this and think day 9 downgrade 

 

but the uppers are an upgrade both locally and upstream, intresting times. 

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Wales and Midlands get the pasting from the snow on this run…would even catch a few inches here

Fantastic. It can stay there

[terrier]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I'd rather get the big dumping of snow first mate, then I would be content even if that was the last of the snow for me!

Problem is you can keep missing out while same places get hit time and time again.

Yeah get what you’re saying but if we all remain in the cold for longer all of us should see some of the white stuff eventually. For me I hope it goes as far south as possible.

[northwestsnow]

GEM 144

GEM 192

 

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

This is highs of -2/-4C with deep snow cover.

[Aiden2012]

Not a fan of the gfs 12z gotta admit

[Zero Visibility]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Fantastic. It can stay there

How much can I trust the GFS, I'm right in the sweetspot.

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just a quick one from me as off out, but the GEM at 180 is looking really good.

 

Still showing the same pattern as GFS and UKMO but about a day or so later...a lot of the real cold uppers to the north moving south westwards (the bulge causing this) though the GEM does have the trough somewhat more south so maybe more scope for cold continuing here.

Edited January 10 by Froze were the Days

[That ECM]

Gem says what low? I create a band of snow for all without risk to any.

 

Edited January 10 by That ECM

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM 144

GEM 192

 

 

 

Yep good run brings the low further south  brilliant model viewing 

[Mark Bayley]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I'd rather get the big dumping of snow first mate, then I would be content even if that was the last of the snow for me!

Problem is you can keep missing out while same places get hit time and time again.

Many options on the table. The GEM has the low flirting south of the M4, but then brings a system down from the north west delivering now quite widely. Would much prefer this option, and as noted by others, lows on the whole tend to trend south. Fascinating days ahead

 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

 

[AltonMatthew]

Up down up down. 

[Snowman.]

Unsure opinions on the UKMO at 144. Feels a little bit to close especially with the lower heights between S GL and Iceland.

However, GEM doesn't get rid of the GL block almost at all, and heighs re-building North?!?

Feeling very cold.

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Zero Visibility said:

How much can I trust the GFS, I'm right in the sweetspot.

Whether it be the GFS or any other model now an awful lot when it comes to this stage in all honesty! Inside 48 hours then maybe! It’s all very exciting however!

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Aiden2012 said:

Not a fan of the gfs 12z gotta admit

If the GFS was to be bang on correct it would be pretty bad for us.

We just miss out on the heavy snow to the south, but we are too near that to get the snow showers from the northeast.

We need Wednesday's low further north delivering us the dumping, or it much further south, hopefully bringing us into snow showers from the NE. Middle ground is no good.