Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Icon 6z looks more promising all be it only out to day 5..im scratching my head as to the direction of travel tbh. It appears the models continue to struggle here and I'm not sure any outcome today will set the tone for next week.

Just to mention I've just been tweeted by someone claiming he as a good friend at the met and they are gonna be calling milder air talking over later next week! So that would be a climbdown! Not sure of his credentials but the 3pm update could be telling.

Sorry chart attached is the gfs.

Probably will get milder compared to what we will get up to next weekend Matt before reamplification

[PiscesStar]

16 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Mate I'd bank one of them if I could 

Showers or troughs very rarely make it down this far and if  they do either peter out or become weaker 

I agree like gold dust 

[Neilsouth]

I'm still looking towards Siberian high pressure development later Jan into Feb, although no sign of this yet in the GFS

[Matt Jones]

24 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Are we really looking at breakdowns in 10 days 3 day  before this spell starts...asking for a friend;)

Shouldn't be and hope not but it's there on the run.

[Gadje]

7 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

You called what. Something that hasn't happened yet?

Nope I'd prefer to proceed with enthusiasm rather than negativity and doom as this is a hobby.  As an adult I think I handle the disappointment of the weather not going the way I wanted and if it snows its all been good.

[Jason M]

Well, looking through the GEFS and just taking a snapshot of where each member is at 192 hours, good luck to anyone who thinks they can make a forecast with any confidence 

Most are cold, but beyond that chaos reigns.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jason M said:

Well, looking through the GEFS and just taking a snapshot of where each member is at 192 hours, good luck to anyone who thinks they can make a forecast with any confidence 

Most are cold, but beyond that chaos reigns.

Thanks Jason for the reasoned thinking and not of the 1 upmonship and hahah I was right you were wrong attitude with your summary.

[nick sussex]

So the GFS 06 hrs run moves towards the Euros .

The interest now moves onto that upstream troughing .

The ECM has the more amplified set up . The direction of energy is se .

 

The GFS has the flatter troughing with the energy moving east .

 

The upstream troughing is now key moving forward in terms of extending the cold .

Anytime you get energy moving se good things can happen .

[Nick2373]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Well, looking through the GEFS and just taking a snapshot of where each member is at 192 hours, good luck to anyone who thinks they can make a forecast with any confidence 

Most are cold, but beyond that chaos reigns.

Pattern change coming up usually proceeds a mess. 

[Djdazzle]

19 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

You called what? That chart is 10 days away, so by using that chart to support your idea is equally wrong.

Your chart has no more chance of verifying that the ones that are showing cold.

[Ice Day]

Another improvement in the GEFS out to day 8 (0z / 6z) - this is for my area

A fairly significant improvement I'd say.  It's going to be pointless looking any further at the moment IMO, but upgrades in the short/medium term is what we want to see.

[Met4Cast]

The low goes south, the south stays cold but we miss out on a potentially significant snowfall event. The 00z spaghetti frontal plot shows a substantial shift south on the last two runs but with still a large amount of spread across France & the English channel, the exact track of this low still hasn't been resolved within the modelling.

Going forward I suspect models are being too progressive with removing the cold. Wedges will be key for cold remaining in situ across the UK and there's certainly some support within the ensembles for cold weather to hang on, more so across northern counties. 

A very difficult and volatile forecasting period coming up. Don't be surprised to see modelling little by little extending the cold.. 

Edited January 11 by Met4Cast

[Chasbrown]

4 minutes ago, Gadje said:

You called what. Something that hasn't happened yet?

Nope I'd prefer to proceed with enthusiasm rather than negativity and doom as this is a hobby.  As an adult I think I handle the disappointment of the weather not going the way I wanted and if it snows its all been good.

Matthew, I have family in Alton. Good altitude and normally do well if there is any snow about. Wait and see and you may be pleasantly surprised. No need for doom and gloom just yet.

[Ali1977]

Those thinking the breakdown will happen look at these ENS  at T182 - most would prolong the cold spell way beyond the end of next week.

Plenty more upgrades possible today I reckon 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The low goes south, the south stays cold but we miss out on a potentially significant snowfall event. The 00z spaghetti frontal plot shows a substantial shift south on the last two runs but with still a large amount of spread across France & the English channel, the exact track of this low still hasn't been resolved within the modelling.

Going forward I suspect models are being too progressive with removing the cold. Wedges will be key for cold remaining in situ across the UK and there's certainly some support within the ensembles for cold weather to hang on, more so across northern counties. 

A very difficult and volatile forecasting period coming up. Don't be surprised to see modelling little by little extending the cold.. 

how far south has the gold line moved in 24/48 hours please?

[jmp223]

No offence but that looks like a three year old just took a crayon to the map.

 

 

 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, That ECM said:

how far south has the gold line moved in 24/48 hours please?

Here's yesterdays 12z run and todays 00z run.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Still alot of cold support folks.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, jmp223 said:

No offence but that looks like a three year old just took a crayon to the map.

 

 

 

Ha, yes I appreciate it's not the cleanest of charts to read. Essentially each red line shows where an ECM ensemble member has the warm front.

[That ECM]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Here's yesterdays 12z run and todays 00z run.

Thank you. So not only south but also more along the channel.

[MJB]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

What surprises me is the Met Office more or less went for the low pressure to be further North. Its almost certain now that won't happen 

Yes me too, they said it was an unlikely option 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Still alot of cold support folks.

I know I can look them up but I enjoy you posting these. can I ask you include somewhere like Plymouth and Aberdeen please?  TIA don’t worry about Bournemouth I look at them hourly.

Edited January 11 by That ECM

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I know I can look them up but I enjoy you posting these. can I ask you include somewhere like Plymouth and Aberdeen please?  TIA don’t worry about Bournemouth I look at them hourly.

Yeh cause I can mate..here you go

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's yesterdays 12z run and todays 00z run.

That’s quite the shift south in 24 hours around 100 miles or so which makes me think the sweet spot will be the Channel Islands as I suspected a few days back. The south east May catch the northern extent of the front as it sweeps through the channel but all will stay cold with pop ups likely and harsh penetrating frosts under clear skys and ice days for midlands north. Some sheltered parts of mid and north wales could hit double digit minimums at night brrr  

[Captain Shortwave]

I am wondering whether in the end the secondary system moving down from Iceland might be the one to watch, rather than the Azores low in regards to a frontal snow event during the middle of next week. If the trough continues to correct south then there is probably very little chance of the Azores low reaches the UK as it will tend to run along the base of the trough.

Edited January 11 by Captain Shortwave