Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Djdazzle]

41 minutes ago, Vikos said:

A lot of moaining going on here. Why? Just because this mild interlude? Some will rub their eyes… no confidence in cold spells but mild is rock solid carved in stone? 

Yes, because that is how it normally works out. Mild Atlantic-driven weather is our default pattern, and thus what we should expect.

When the models show that, it's more likely to be correct.

[AO-]

Another small remark: 

 

Despite the zonal flow, the precipitation signal is low for the 25th onwards. This might imply a block in the wrong place. Probably over Europe.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters from T192:

For the T192-T240 timeframe, there really is nothing much to distinguish the four clusters for the UK, just strong westerly flow.  In the extended, there is a tentative signal to build heights towards the NE, most notably in cluster 3, but that really is the only signal of interest for a change from the zonal dirge.  

[northwestsnow]

Just now, AO- said:

Another small remark: 

 

Despite the zonal flow, the precipitation signal is low for the 25th onwards. This might imply a block in the wrong place. Probably over Europe.

Trust me it's better than wind  and rain

I think there is just about enough going on to hope for change into Feb...

[throwoff]

A lot of negativity on here this morning, mostly looking into next week. I can appreciate that we are likely going into something more mild but we have a week of fun before then don't we?

In terms of this mornings runs to my untrained eye the low certainly has slipped a little more north, the south coast is now back in line for some snow and if we continue to see that pattern over the coming runs we could see much of the south of England coming back into play.

[feb1991blizzard]

look at that streamer wasted in the North sea - at this rate even NE England won't get any snow.

[tight isobar]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s still some uncertainty there , also as the front might pivot as the low tracks east so some precip could edge nw into the far se as that happens .

It is very frustrating as the snow could have lasted a while .

I’d give it till the end of today .

 

We are rinsing the hell out of this now !!.. but yeah 1 more pop it’s I suppose worth but for me no change via the 6z.  It’s a dead en. But again we’ll give it a final note this morning…

[jules216]

Increddibly mild Continental Europe in the extended range. Greenland low and Iberian high advecting towards central Európe. We are just passed the seasonal wavelenghts where there will be much less inversion and hopefully warm sun here in Slovakia. A welcome reminder that spring is on the way soon and I am Also Happy with when I made my forecast that this winter is a blend of 2022/23 and 2021/22 which is turning to be the case with analogs showing a mild February that is now slowly adjusting in modeling. Also I am very Happy that back in October I managed to predict period of last two weeks of November and start of December to be the most witry period here which turned out to be correct. Ever since we are consulting our analogs with experts from Serbia and using "The climate weather company" as good source of cross checking our analogs we have in last 3 years produced very good results in seasonal forecasts.

[ANYWEATHER]

39 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Reasons to be slightly optimistic this morning.

Granted it is the equivalent of expecting rib eye steak and being served the possibility of a spam fritter ( apologies to veggies )

Latest Exeter thoughts show the front 50 miles further North than the fax yesterday and the front dropping down the UK exiting via the Wash rather than the South coast, this may help the Low over France track toward us at the same time, and a Northward nudge on the latest GFS.

It has to be said a major surprise now would be getting precipitation to London( although not beyond the relms in these set ups) and more likely some light snow ( 40% chance) for coastal parts) the mild sector needs holding back, so hoping for more would lead to disaster anyway with cold rain.

 

UKV going again for a near miss ,as its done for days now. .......!

[throwoff]

42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s still some uncertainty there , also as the front might pivot as the low tracks east so some precip could edge nw into the far se as that happens .

It is very frustrating as the snow could have lasted a while .

I’d give it till the end of today .

 

I still think this is very possible. There seems to have been a gradual pivot to the north over the past 24 hours of runs. Leading into the weekend everything had it going south into France ad being game over for the UK, there has been a slow but noticeable correction north since Midnight Saturday.

[Gowon]

A bit more ppn getting further south now on the ICON:

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Gowon said:

A bit more ppn getting further south now on the ICON:

Encouraging. As I said (but post now moved) it’s the 1st official day of our arctic outbreak, and I’ve already had an unexpected dusting!.. on we roll the gfs 6z will be interesting for possible upgrades in placements.

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Encouraging. As I said (but post now moved) it’s the 1st official day of our arctic outbreak, and I’ve already had an unexpected dusting!.. on we roll the gfs 6z will be interesting for possible upgrades in placements.

Hopefully that low into Southern counties has anyone looked yet to see if it will clip Kent? 

Edited January 15 by PiscesStar

[tight isobar]

Just now, PiscesStar said:

Hopefully that low into Southern counties has anyone looked yet to see if will clip Kent? 

Awaiting the gfs/ecm 6z on this .

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Awaiting the gfs/ecm 6z on this .

What are your thoughts as things stand on the models. Bbc forecast has it that it will clip Kent. I live in herne bay near Canterbury? 

Edited January 15 by PiscesStar

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

What are your thoughts as things stand on the models 

Anyones guess atm- I’ll reiterate, today’s outs will almost certainly firm up now. Kent has a decent chance of some snow for sure even given the current outs.. we’ll see where we are at this afternoon . @ outputs latest takes.

Edited January 15 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

All it takes is another 50 mile shift North and we're on the verge of a very significant snow event.

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

All it takes is another 50 mile shift North and we're on the verge of a very significant snow event.

That would bring southern counties into play for sure. Important run coming up for gfs 

Edited January 15 by PiscesStar

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

All it takes is another 50 mile shift North and we're on the verge of a very significant snow event.

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

I note with interest where you are situated wud ukv be a good model to use? 

[bluearmy]

There are enough jigsaw pieces late on in week 2 and certainly for week 3

But it looks tough to see how you’d arrange for them to bring winter to nw europe.  mind you, I could barely manage one side of a Rubik cube so I’m not your man anyway ! 

[jules216]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

I hope the February part is wrong!

Despite the analogs do show some promise for you, a blend of 2004/05,2014/15 and 2006/07 do mostly bring poor blocking placement for here. But this is skewed by huge SOI cash in 2005 which induced cold spell here Also in February/March 2005. I am not sure the ENSO atmospheric coupling now will bring the same, because I favor more a blend of 2006/07 and 2014/15. In 2007 there was a near SSW also which later brought big cold Wave in Scandinavia. But it never materialized here in 02/2007. Almost like now. Scandinavia Has Been in freezer since 10/2023 yet very little effect of it here. Actually the last cold month here was 06/2023 when IT was last month of Scandinavia being mild. So there is an inverse correlation here with Scandi cold as far as I Can Remember. If you look at how January is going the analogs will be close to outcome.

[tight isobar]

A definitive sway into southerly tracking winds across france… and biscay she’s getting bumped up ???

Edited January 15 by tight isobar

[throwoff]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

Seen it more than a couple of times. 50 miles is next to nothing in terms of systems of this size.

[Harveyslugger]

Is It true.the deeper the low pressure they tend to track further north? because gfs has it deeper