Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Jan 87]

Most likely an outlier, I dont think the next phase of strat warming will kick in that fast

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Gowon said:

That looks like the beast setting up.

Angle of Atlantic trough a bit dicey but out west there's a bit more disruption about to occur.

Hopefully Allister Mc - it'll do an impression of feb 1991

Edited January 16 by feb1991blizzard

[Drifter]

6 minutes ago, Jan 87 said:

Most likely an outlier, I dont think the next phase of strat warming will kick in that fast

 

It is possible to get an easterly without strat warming you know…

[Gowon]

Oh my days!!

[Ali1977]

[Daniel*]

Rising momentum might not be as outlandish as you think noticeable also met office talking about higher risk of cold easterly winds in Feb clearly that infers Scandinavian blocking. GFS 12z might be onto something…

[Drifter]

A similar ECM tonight would see the mood improving in here!

[Lampostwatcher]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Would love a perfect scandi for the start of feb and snow from the east let the countdown begin 

Gfs 12z fI

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

A similar ECM tonight would see the mood improving in here!

Some ensemble support would be a decent start 

[lorenzo]

Not often you see this type of anomaly lurking about Scandi... that's a decent signal.. here we go again !

[That ECM]

Love a hint.

[Purga]

Are we trying very hard for an easterly??

[ICE COLD]

AND !!!! We’re off . The Met update mentions winds from the east , the gfs says ok here we go

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There Has been a few signs of it across the various suites in the past couple of days

That horrible mess to to our northwest can actually help with the strength of a Scandinavian high if it orientates in the right way, seen it many times before, it probably be gone next run, but at least something to keep an eye on.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Game on!

GFS T318:

There has been a signal for something on the way towards this on the EPS and clusters which definitely grew larger this morning.  So very interesting to see GFS roll this out in FI this afternoon.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Starting pistol fired for the next chase.

[Wade]

An easterly trying to set up at the end of the GFS run I see, however people it is important not to jump up and down over it because we all know how often it don't verify but it definitely is something to keep an eye on for sure albeit with very low expectations. Let's see what the ECM produces later on.

[warrenb]

Hmm, I believe I said on Friday to look east toward the end of Jan and Feb, the stratospheric PV split today with a wind reversal also, with the strat and trop closely linked this winter I suspect any influence will be fairly quick.

[ANYWEATHER]

Here we go, next cold chase starts at T+300, according to the gfs.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12 hrs run picking up the ECM 00hrs baton from this morning with the digging upstream troughing which tries to send a ridge ne ahead of it .

The more dig south and the sharper troughing the further n the ridge gets ahead of it .

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Hmm, I believe I said on Friday to look east toward the end of Jan and Feb, the stratospheric PV split today with a wind reversal also, with the strat and trop closely linked this winter I suspect any influence will be fairly quick.

Not sure if it does happen it will be strat lead, its more likely from trop lead tropical forcing in the pacific.

[Battleground Snow]

Just for fun, but the winds could be coming from Russia / Siberia by 384 here, huge expanse of high pressure 

Edited January 16 by Battleground Snow

[ICE COLD]

I love it when I get to post these . The purple monster is in

[Troubleatmill]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Game on!

GFS T318:

There has been a signal for something on the way towards this on the EPS and clusters which definitely grew larger this morning.  So very interesting to see GFS roll this out in FI this afternoon.  

Defo! Wasn't expecting anything to really show on the later GFS frames so soon, apart from the building blocks ....ain't complaining though!

GEFS Stamps will certainly be interesting 

Edited January 16 by Troubleatmill

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Hmm, I believe I said on Friday to look east toward the end of Jan and Feb, the stratospheric PV split today with a wind reversal also, with the strat and trop closely linked this winter I suspect any influence will be fairly quick.

Either way its a cracker for kent.