Spring 2024

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906  If we're going to have a cool April, I'd much prefer it to be dry. Of course if I had a guarantee of it, I'd take a cool and near normal rainfall April if it then led to something much warmer and drier in May.

But since the weather doesn't work that way, I really think I'm looking for warm and dry all the way for the rest of spring. I think the dryness though is more important than the warmth. I would take a persistently cool spell with lots of anticyclonic easterlies and north easterlies, staying mostly dry, through the rest of the spring any day over a very mild but notably wet April and May.

[ANYWEATHER]

 Summer8906 yes today ,this afternoon ☺ although I took the best photo of the good weather at the time...!☺

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 I've also got the hunch that winter 2024/2025 may be the lucky one for coldies. If we do see a slight reduction of temperatures due to the Hunga vapour dissipating + when we go back to La Nina we may have a bit more luck for winter cold spells in Europe in the 2025-2028 window I feel.

Back to spring at hand and this wet spell we're in, if you look back in history at all the wettest years, they are usually followed by a cluster of dry/dryer years. It can happen you can get stuck in a rut of wet weather. I just looked through the data and 1875-1883 was extremely wet with 5 of these years having over 1,000mm and two of them over 1,100mm! The driest of the lot was 1881 which was still wetter than normal at 966mm. Generally though I think we can expect a drier couple of years, perhaps even very dry, but climate change may affect that and I'd expect more average with one dry year than a flip to extreme dryness.

Once again back to 2024 and I said for a while that I felt a 1998/2007 spring was on its way and it's somewhat come true so far. If this March ends up warm and wet that'll be somewhat like March 1998 and then I am convinced we'll April and May be contrasting months, one relatively cool (or maybe even below the 1961-1990 average) and one be warm, sunny and dry. I think April 2024 will be the cool and wet one and then we'll see our first properly dry month in May 2024. Similar to how May 2001 broke the deluge.

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather I'd say fairly cool, dry and reasonably sunny is the absolute ideal for April, certainly, and even early May.

Further warmth can be put off until 2nd half of May if only it becomes drier and brighter! Would be happy with an April with a mean max of 12C, absolute max of 15C but 150% normal sunshine and 10% normal rainfall. Such an April would probably be the medicine nature needs, in fact!

Edited March 15 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 I think an absolute max of 15C would be virtually impossible these days - more like 17-18C is the absolute floor I would have thought.

At some point this pattern will change, but I'm pencilling in May for a big pattern change, so I think April may well be a fairly mixed or indifferent month.

[Evening thunder]

This has to be one of the dullest/most extended dull spells I remember, especially going into Spring.

I was on holiday the one cold sunnier week in January, and since returning it has felt almost eternally grey and damp with just the odd day with a bit of sun.

All of last week basically seemed grey, except the odd sunny interval yesterday. Once again today, it's cloudy from dawn while most of the country is getting a sunny start. 

At least winter 2014 had more PM/RPM air and sunshine between the lows.

Might see a few sunny intervals tomorrow but not getting my hopes up too high. 

Similar weather just seems to go on and on:


Haven't really had those first 'it feels like spring' days due to cloud/wind/dampness, but at the same time, plant growth seems more advanced than I can remember at this time of year due to endless mild and lack of frosts.

Edited March 16 by Evening thunder

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Madness in my area this morning...a sky that's mostly clear. 

First time since god knows when (begining of last October I think) that I've been able to sit outside of a weekend morning and enjoy my coffee. 

A momentous annual moment

Edited March 16 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Summer8906]

 Evening thunder Very true. The combination of dull and damp, and nature being advanced, is not good; as I've said before, I do wonder whether this will be the most aesthetically-bereft spring for a long time, because the flowering is not coinciding with classic spring days. Potentially this could be the worst spring from an aesthetic point of view since 1983 or 1986, which were the opposite extreme for temperature, but eternally dull and wet and the weather didn't improve until June in either case.

Other years had mild late winters but then turned sunnier in March so we could enjoy the flowering (e.g. 1990, 2007, 2014).

And, on the other hand, some other years still had it wet and dull deep into spring, but colder (think 2013) so that by the time the weather settled down, we could still enjoy the flowering as it was delayed. To think that I saw bluebells in full bloom as late as June 2, 2013 - I would honestly prefer a 2013-style spring to what we have this year as once spring arrived (almost overnight on April 14th) it was truly beautiful. April 14 to May 7 2013 were mostly fine and sunny (if cool) here, later in May it was more changeable but not as bad as some make out.

Then there was 2016, which turned cold once spring arrived and dramatically slowed down the progression of nature, saving spring at the eleventh hour.

The way things are going this year, all the bluebells will have come and gone on May 2 - unless we get a prolonged cool spell soon. So am hoping April is cool - as long as it isn't excessively wet. A cool April would also mean less claggy airmasses, i.e. more NW-lies and N-lies.

I have a feeling May will be warm and sunny but will the damage have been done by then? Will we get a May where nature has the over-mature look of summer rather than the fresh look of spring, and with all the flowers normally associated with May come and gone - making the year seem old already?

Looking at your forecast, I do see cooler night minima from midweek which suggests "cleaner" air might get in.

We badly need a fine summer as it's the only thing that will "save" 2024 now, I feel. I'm not that confident as they seem to occur every 4 years or so on average, and the last was only 2 years ago, but you never know...

 

Edited March 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Don't care if April is indifferent as long as it's on the dry side, on the cool side, and average or above for sunshine. A "northwesterly" month with some showery days and some dry days, with a few late frosts, would be fine.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Warm, dry and dull is quite a rare combination in May but taking the country as a whole May 1999 managed it, as did 2022 as others have mentioned earlier. Probably the most extreme case of a dull but very dry May was that of 1991, although on that occasion temperatures were near average rather than warm. In May 1991, high pressure was centred over southern and/or western Britain through the month which resulted in very dry weather - most areas had no more than 10 mm of rain - but cloud kept coming in from the North Sea and/or the North Atlantic. Some regions had one of their dullest Mays on record as well as one of the driest.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons I gpt up too late to see it

A very good job I did. Means I didn't suffer the disappointment of seeing it go

[B87]

 WYorksWeather An absolute max of 15c has always been impossible. Even the icy April 1986 managed to record 17c.

Edited March 16 by B87

[laddie]

Clouded over now, but what a cracking few hours to start the day with, blue sky zero wind and warmth 

[MP-R]

 Summer8906 A fine summer AND autumn wouldn’t go amiss!

[B87]

 MP-R We need a fine 10 months now, just to even out the previous 10 months of unsettled rubbish.

I want a dry April, May, June, July, August, September and October at the very least, with at least one of June-August seeing less than 10mm.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 B87 We can dream ...

[damianslaw]

April, May and first half of June is my favourite time of year weather wise and for being outdoors, usually drier than any other 2 and half month period, everything growing fresh green, sunshine hours by mid May reach their annual peak, none of the very humid cloud dank infested airstreams of high summer, the promise of summer to come still, ever increasing daylight.. the year doesn't get any better than in this time period. Overall May is the par excellence month!

Edited March 16 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

Bit of a frustrating day today yet again. It feels like we're getting hints of spring now - some nice warm sunshine from about 9am through to about 1pm today, but then increasingly cloudy before the inevitable rain comes.

Still, it was enough for an outdoor coffee and a walk.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

In terms of temps and rainfall it hasn't been too bad of a March so far for this neck of the woods and has actually been quite pleasant for much of the time. My only gripe really is that there hasn't been a lot of sun. Though when the sun is out, the warmth is now so noticeable that you'd do OK with a spring jacket. Time to start digging out the sunscreen now I think.

Edited March 20 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Wold Topper]

 Weather Enthusiast91 winter coat never made it out of the cupboard this past winter, fleece jacket has been sufficient most days, as for sunscreen, i'll give it a glance in July hopefully

Edited March 20 by Wold Topper

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Weather Enthusiast9 "SUN" SCREEN. HAHAHAHHAHAHHAAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAA!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!! HAHAHAHAHHA!!!! OMG I cracked a rib! ... Although maybe the reverse psychology will work ...

 Wold Topper Mine is so out of date I need to buy more actually!

[damianslaw]

Cut off point when I need suncream.is roughly second week of April, many a day fell walk without protection has resulted in sun burn.. by then the sun is as strong as very tail end of August into September. Don't wait for the warm weather before putting the cream on!

Edited March 20 by damianslaw

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 *Stormforce~beka* You can never be too careful.  

 Wold Topper Hoping we have a July 2018 redux, particularly after last year's horror. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Don't wait for the warm weather before putting the cream on!

During the heatwave last September I had no protection yet received nothing more than just a slight tan. Had it been during July with no protection then I would have been burnt to a crisp. Just shows that it's all about the sun's strength rather than temperature.

[Wold Topper]

 *Stormforce~beka* have never worn sunscreen in this country tbh only ever used it when abroad, not trying to be clever by that statement either, old leather skin me