Spring 2024

[Weather-history]

We've got a general summer chat, so surely it is time to look at the prospects for spring 2024 now? We're into the 2nd half of the meteorological winter.

 

 

[simshady]

Hopefully a cool, if not cold spring this year. If it's not going to be cold then wet and windy please

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, simshady said:

Hopefully a cool, if not cold spring this year. If it's not going to be cold then wet and windy please

March 2013, April 2021, May 2021 would be nice. 

[SunSean]

Screw wet & windy, that's boring factory preset British weather which we have for 90% of the year lol.

I am just hoping for lots of sunshine. I think we may get a normal, fairly fine March with average figures, a sunny April including some days in the 20c+ range and a slightly better than average May, similar to May last year but more sunshine at least this time for Eastern parts.

The last great Spring we had was 2020 so I think we are overdue one again now!

Spring 2021 had a fine enough March, lovely crisp & sunny April but a rubbish wet May

Spring 2022 had a wonderful March but April & May were about normal, not too bad but nothing standout

Spring 2023 had the worst March I have ever experienced, a below par but not horrific April & a May of 2 halves with the 1st half being very poor & the second half being very pleasant

Lets see what this year brings!

[CoventryWeather]

Hopefully a dry and warm spring - it's been a while since we had a spring that brought an early summer. 

Few thunderstorms, lots of sunshine and little rain - and to have that for the whole summer will do me nicely! 

Considering the past few months/year even when it's been extremely wet, I can see is getting a relatively dry summer and perhaps autumn but let's see what it does! 

Edited January 21 by CoventryWeather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I want April showers and thunderstorms. They are a thing of the past like blinking snow!

[Seasonal Trim]

Yep, I'm done with Winter now. Hope for a fresh, warm Spring, with a few thunder storms thrown in for good measure.  

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for a largely unsettled March, then an April of two halves with it being quite cool and unsettled during the first and dry sunny and at times warm during the second, then a largely warm and settled May with thunderstorms later on.

[WYorksWeather]

This is not a prediction, but rather what I'd like to happen. I tend to find that some of the extreme heat spikes in mid-summer over the past few years are a bit much, but I do like warmth or even hot weather in the 20-30C range, with probably 25C being ideal. Nights are also cooler in Spring, so you can have very nice warm days without suffering too much at night. So, with that in mind, here would be my preference. Temperatures are absolute maxes, with the expectation that at my location temperatures will be 2-3C lower than the absolute max.

March:

Don't mind a BFTE repeat in early March (unlikely, so more realistically mild by day and frosty overnight). By mid-March, I'd be hoping for some dry and warm sunshine with temperatures getting into at least the mid to high-teens. An odd day in the low 20s later in the month would be nice, but not essential.

April:

Month of my birthday, so plenty of warm dry weather. A couple of nice thundery breakdowns. Maybe one or two early heat spikes as well up to the mid 20s, but nothing too remarkable.

May:

Continuation of the theme, but I think May has really missed out a lot lately on some of the extremes, and I really wouldn't mind seeing the 32.8C record go. Let's go for a pleasant but not overly hot May Day period, with temperatures in the mid 20s. Followed by a bit of a breakdown with some good thunderstorms around the middle of the month. Heat then rebuilds later on, with a true heatwave in late May. High 20s for about a week as the daily maxima, and two days with heat spikes into the low 30s, one of which reaches 33-34C and so breaks the all-time May record.

Beyond that though, I'd prefer a more 'normal' summer which lacks either the extreme heat of 2018 and 2022 or the rainy and wet high summer of 2023. Essentially a continuation of the weather from May would be great for me - lots of warm days, a few hot or very hot days but not extreme, and thundery breakdowns in between warm and dry spells. Probably worth expanding on in another thread.

[Metwatch]

I think March will be decent, May will be near - record breakingly warm. However April probably a wet one. April's during El Nino (not the only factor / driver, I know) don't seem to do well probably due to the idea of winters being back loaded following on another late winter SSW, but March could somehow be decent.

 

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I want April showers and thunderstorms. They are a thing of the past like blinking snow!

Last spring was incredible here for convection; surprise storm in March, thunder in April and several good storms in May, convective cloudscapes abundant in the second half of March / first half of April & early May. Not sure if it was as good for the south coast. However the price we had to pay for that is a rather wet and unsettled season apart from the last 2-3 weeks of May.

Drier springs and summer usually not as good for storms so need to get a balance between the 2 somehow which seems to be a struggle in recent years.

[Wade]

This isn't a prediction but a combination what could be interesting and potentially record breaking for dry weather:

A March 2011

An April 2021 

A May 2020

[lassie23]

I think it will snow in March

[raz.org.rain]

I reckon March will be unexceptional. Pretty much just mild, a continuation of what we've had in December with much less wind and rain. April will be warmer and drier with some warm spells interrupted by thunderstorms. May will be a record hot and dry one, temperatures often above 30°, although I think we'll have an early first 30°c some time in April as a one day wonder. Summer of course will see several long heatwaves with plenty of thunderstorms in between, max temperatures will be in the higher 30s, but we're getting ahead of ourselves there.

[Earthshine]

A March like 2022, an April like 2020 and a May like 2018/2020 would be fantastic.  I'd like to see gin blue skies and bone dry conditions in May, a bit like 2020 (picture below).

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

I think March will be decent, May will be near - record breakingly warm. However April probably a wet one. April's during El Nino (not the only factor / driver, I know) don't seem to do well probably due to the idea of winters being back loaded following on another late winter SSW, but March could somehow be decent.

 

Last spring was incredible here for convection; surprise storm in March, thunder in April and several good storms in May, convective cloudscapes abundant in the second half of March / first half of April & early May. Not sure if it was as good for the south coast. However the price we had to pay for that is a rather wet and unsettled season apart from the last 2-3 weeks of May.

Drier springs and summer usually not as good for storms so need to get a balance between the 2 somehow which seems to be a struggle in recent years.

I think the spring will be a cross between 2019 and 2016 to be honest @Metwatchthe only thing that's different to those two years is there is a higher amount of sun spots this year.   

[SunSean]

31 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

A March like 2022, an April like 2020 and a May like 2018/2020 would be fantastic.  I'd like to see gin blue skies and bone dry conditions in May, a bit like 2020 (picture below).

Yes please. I'll never forget how clear those skies were in April/May 2020, it was like living somewhere like California!

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, Wade said:

This isn't a prediction but a combination what could be interesting and potentially record breaking for dry weather:

A March 2011

An April 2021 

A May 2020

And probably record breaking for sunshine too.  April 2021 was just as sunny as eg April 2020 here.

[SummerShower]

My ideal spring would be, and hopes for 2024 pan out something like this:

1-3 March 2018

4-6 March 2007

7-12 March 2008

13-15 March 1993

16-21 March 2009

22-29 March 2012

30-31 March 2021

1-4 April 1994

5-6 April 2008

7-11 April 2011

12-15 April 2007

16-17 April 2003

17-21 April 2018

22-23 April 2011

24-29 April 200

30 april-1 may 2005

2-3 may 2007

4 May 2006

5-13 May 2000 but with storm of 10th, 2001.

Rest of May 1992, but then 26/27th May 2017 and 28th to 31 May 2018.

 

[Wade]

20 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

And probably record breaking for sunshine too.  April 2021 was just as sunny as eg April 2020 here.

Indeed, I'd quite like a spring like that this year with a few decent widespread thunderstorm events would be fantastic, no worries for water supply given how wet it has been over the last couple months.

[reef]

The way things are going its more likely to be warmer, drier and sunnier than average - as that's the trend of the last 25 years or so.

The cluster of warm and sunny Springs is remarkable after 2000. It has changed more than any other season.

Here, since 2007 there have been 10(!) Aprils with less than 25% of average rainfall. 2020, 2021 and 2022 had 6.6mm or less. In the same time period only 6 out of 51 individual Spring months have had less than 90% of average sunshine. There have also only been three Springs below average since 2001.

Odds are in favour of a good one, though it means expectations are probably far too high.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

8 hours ago, simshady said:

Hopefully a cool, if not cold spring this year. If it's not going to be cold then wet and windy please

Out of curiosity, what would you define as a cold Spring, or even a cool Spring?

Surprised you actively enjoy wet and windy though. That's probably the least usable and most impactful weather condition combo we have (outside of extreme cold or extreme heat), especially if you want to do basically anything outdoors. If your job involves being outside for hours on-end, it's genuinely hellish weather to be in.

Probably worth bearing in mind too that we had one of the wettest Novembers and then wettest Decembers on record, which many places have nowhere near yet recovered fully from, so a wet Spring (after what will no doubt be a pretty wet end to January and then probably a wet Feb too, cos it's England), will cause havoc to such areas already suffered from flooding over the past 4-6 weeks.

[reef]

7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Out of curiosity, what would you define as a cold Spring, or even a cool Spring?

Surprised you actively enjoy wet and windy though. That's probably the least usable and most impactful weather condition combo we have (outside of extreme cold or extreme heat), especially if you want to do basically anything outdoors. If your job involves being outside for hours on-end, it's genuinely hellish weather to be in.

Probably worth bearing in mind too that we had one of the wettest Novembers and then wettest Decembers on record, which many places have nowhere near yet recovered fully from, so a wet Spring (after what will no doubt be a pretty wet end to January and then probably a wet Feb too, cos it's England), will cause havoc to such areas already suffered from flooding over the past 4-6 weeks.

I suspect most people would consider an "average" Spring to be quite cold now. Last year was considered "cold" but it was 0.2C above the 1991-2020 average. 2022 has been mentioned as "good March but the rest pretty average" but it had a 13.3C May and was only 0.2C below the record!

That's not saying much mind you as the 1991-2020 average is just 1.1C below said record, such has been the concentration of warm Springs in recent years.

We're over due a really warm May though. We've had an 11.9C April and 17.0C June either side, but no May above 13.4C. Definitely a 14+C one due at some point.

[WYorksWeather]

24 minutes ago, reef said:

I suspect most people would consider an "average" Spring to be quite cold now. Last year was considered "cold" but it was 0.2C above the 1991-2020 average. 2022 has been mentioned as "good March but the rest pretty average" but it had a 13.3C May and was only 0.2C below the record!

That's not saying much mind you as the 1991-2020 average is just 1.1C below said record, such has been the concentration of warm Springs in recent years.

We're over due a really warm May though. We've had an 11.9C April and 17.0C June either side, but no May above 13.4C. Definitely a 14+C one due at some point.

I think an absolutely record-flattening May is probably due, to be honest. If not this year then in the next few before 2030. Significant heatwave lasting a few days exceeding 30C, all time record going with a max of 33C-34C, and a lack of any notable cool spells to balance it out. CET breaking the 15.1C from 1833. Doubtful all of those metrics will be broken in the same month, but all of them have stood for a long time.  We've had a lot of notable record-breaking months or days in the last 10 years or so in summer, autumn and winter, but less so in the spring, so I really think we're due a real month to remember.

Whether it will happen this year or not is of course impossible to predict!

[Sun Chaser]

Well there's definitely potential for the first "springlike" day of the year under a ridge on Friday, 12c and sunny in late Jan is as good as it gets!

 

On predictions for spring - March to be unremarkable but pleasant (2015 ish maybe),

April 2024 just doesn't sound like a good month in my head and it's been a long time since a properly bad one so maybe the worst since 2012 sadly. Just a gut feeling with 0 actual reasoning so I'm hoping this is a reverse jinx.

May 2024 - another nice one, maybe peaking in the first half which hasn't happened recently

[Summer8906]

With the weather turning the way that it has, this thread couldn't come at a better time. With no decent winter weather in the short term, what better thing to do to cheer oneself up than to start thinking about the brighter days and lighter evenings - and hopefully drier, sunnier weather - of spring.

Anyway my thoughts are for a warm one - again. Thinking this way particularly because I fear Feb may now be very mild and locked-in zonal, and such months often precede notably warm springs.

Not sure about precipitation, though I think March will be the "opposite" to Feb as it often works out that way. So if it's a wet Feb I'm guessing at a warm, dry and sunny March. If it's a dry Feb (could happen I guess if the jetstream is somewhat north) a wetter March. Either way, a mild/warm month.

April I'll go with a fairly typically sunny and dry month though with some colder and more unsettled periods in N-ly/NW-ly outbreaks. Perhaps the only remaining snow this season for the south will fall in April.

May - not sure, less sunny than last year. I'll say mixed, easterly, warmish, perhaps a little wetter than normal in the south, thundery, sunshine about average.

 

Edited January 21 by Summer8906