Spring 2024

[SunSean]

Pray for the demise of yet another late Sudden Spring Wrecker (SSW)!

Don't mind colder temps ala, April 2021 but not interested in the obscene dullness another Sudden Spring Wrecker will bestow upon us!

[Frigid]

 SunSean Yes, if the supposed SSW does occur I hope we see a month similar to April 2021. It was drier and sunnier than the fabled April 2020, but temps were flipped around. Harsh frosts and most of the rainfall in the first half was from snowfall. I do recall from the 13th onwards seeing continuous unbroken sunshine.. what a lovely month.

What I don't want to see is another April 2012 or 2023, boring and dull. Can't recall a single thing from last April.

[SunSean]

 Frigid Yes, cracking month that. Wouldn't mind seeing a March version of an April 2021 too!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Arctic Hare Amen!

[raz.org.rain]

 SunSean intuition tells me that last spring was a case of everything that could go wrong going wrong. It definitely felt very unusual for the cold weather to be prolonged for so long, SSW or not. I'm sure they should only last for a week or so at best. Three months worth was just obscene.

[Metwatch]

First celandine in the garden this afternoon, more signs spring is ready to arrive!

[WYorksWeather]

For what it's worth, CFSv2 overall is going for a slightly milder than average spring today.

Broken down by month, March looks near average, which would feel quite cold I imagine, especially in the first half.

We then have a slightly milder than average April.

Similar in May, only slightly warmer than average.

 

I do think this might be masking some more significant week-to-week variation - we could have a cold spell in the first half of March and a warmer second half, or something like that. Probably need to wait until some of the other models come more into range.

EC46 can maybe give us an early idea, as it also reaches into the early spring now. It is going for a colder end to winter and beginning of March, from 26th February to 4th March.

The 4th to the 11th then looks non-descript.

Possible early hints of a transition to something warmer from the 11th-18th.

Summary

Of course this may look completely different in a few days, but worth keeping an eye on. Frankly this isn't really what I'd like to see. I'm not a fan of overly hot weather in excess of 30C, but I do like warmth in spring and early summer. A cold first half of March is fine if it delivers snow, but after that it can do one. Cold in late March or into April is just a waste of time these days from a snow perspective, and so I'd much rather have warm sunny days than cold rain. I don't want a repeat of last year with no widespread 20C days until well into May.

 

[WYorksWeather]

For what it's worth, the GFS 35-day chart at 00z today is just broadly very non-descript. Control is a warm outlier, but the mean is just bang on average for the most part.

A lot will depend on if we do get the much-forecasted SSW in mid-February I imagine, and if so what effect it has, as every SSW is different. It is possible it could give us a repeat of last year with a near-average spring (hence feeling cooler than many recent years), but equally it is not unheard of for an SSW to bring an early spring.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather not particularly great viewing for anyone waiting for warmth. "Average" has lost its meaning for me considering that last spring and July were supposedly average...

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Can't wait for spring and the lighter evenings. Fed up of the dark since November. Fed up of the cold. Praying for some warmth April/May. Last year they were awful. Cold. A terrible extension of winter. 

[raz.org.rain]

 NEVES SCREAMER there seems to be some confidence among some people in a record breaking warm May, but I think that's largely down to the fact that it's way overdue and such a May hasn't really occurred yet. It's disappointing to see long range forecasts not entertain this possibility though.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

 raz.org.rain May 1989/1990/2018 will do me. Magnificent May months. Lots of sunny warm weather. 1990 was hot. Temps often in high 20's. More of that please !!!!

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Again, I think it really depends on your outlook.

July was about average compared to 1961-1990 (though much wetter). It would have been cool compared to 1991-2020 though, and if you compare to the last ten Julys, say, it would be very cool.

As far as last year goes for Spring, we had CET and anomalies to 1961-1990 as follows:

March: 7.0 (+1.4C)

April: 8.7 (+0.8C)

May: 12.5 (+1.4C)

That's probably about as bad a combination as you can get with those anomalies. In other words, the coldest month being April delays the feel of anything warm, and May wasn't really warm enough to make up for it.

If you took the same overall spring anomaly, about +1.2C on 1961-1990, and distributed it differently, it'd feel a lot better.

Suppose we had instead:

March: 5.0 (-0.6C)

April: 10.0 (+2.1C)

May: 13.2 (+2.1C)

The cold March would have been quickly forgotten, especially if it came in the form of a more notable cold spell early on with widespread snow, and a significantly warmer April and May would make up for it.

It can be as much about distribution as the overall warmth that affects the feel of a season and of course other factors affect the feel as well (highs vs. lows, precipitation, sunlight, wind). 2023 was just a very odd year - a lot of interesting synoptics, but mostly at the wrong times of year. The same can be done with the summer - if you'd swapped the late May through most of June anomaly into July, and the early September anomaly somewhere into August, it would be remembered as a very good summer.

 

[WeatherArc]

While the focus has been on the potential incoming cold spell, something else on the gfs has caught my eye.  Look at the increase in 850 temps in Africa! from 5 to around 24 over the run, a sure sign that winters days are numbered and spring is inbound. 

[WeatherArc]

Here comes spring...

 

Pretty impressive uppers for feb to our south

[raz.org.rain]

 WeatherArc fingers crossed it helps to divert any potential SSW and send that cold crud into Eastern Europe.

[SunnyG]

 Frigid Spring and summer 2022 will do very nicely for me. And I believe we'll have that this year, only hotter.

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain The long range forecasts for winter were rubbish (January and especially February supposed to be very cold/colder than average?), so I am not gonna trust the ones for spring summer...

[mike5900]

This cherry tree thinks it is spring.

[WeatherArc]

Wow 

Never mind spring, last nights GFS slams summer straight into western Europe, gets the 20 degree isotherm into southern France, with surface temps in the range of 25-31 degrees. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Interesting is not what I would call it ...!!

[stewfox]

First daffodil I've seen,near Grantham 

[raz.org.rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* I'm still unconvinced, I'm not the only one either. Outside of the hypers and rampers, there's no agreement on what an SSW will deliver for us. But many have pointed out that it's definitely not a guarantee of a 2018 style BFTE. I'm still leaning towards an early spring personally.

Edited February 10 by raz.org.rain

[ANYWEATHER]

On 08/02/2024 at 16:10, WeatherArc said:

Never mind spring, last nights GFS slams summer straight into western Europe, gets the 20 degree isotherm into southern France, with surface temps in the range of 25-31 degrees.

Well ,todays charts show no warmth at all for this area......

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain Prayers going up ...