Spring 2024

[danm]

 B87 yeh i think it's highly likely that the late season SSW has perpetuated northern blocking. Low pressure is just getting stuck at mid latitudes. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG I saw something on the news saying the price of things like bread is going to skyrocket next year as a result of the weather and it's prolonged impact on our agricultural industry

But the odd 40c day (which may happen once in a decade) in summer is the real concern about climate change for the UK...  

The need to build personal Noah's Arks for the population is a more pressing concern lol.

Edited April 25 by In Absence of True Seasons

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Azazel Spring is (was) great because of the light levels, the colours, the promise of summer yet to come, and the warmer days but not yet proper summer heat.

Such conditions seem to be resigned to history, now. Or perhaps just the odd day here and there during each Spring month. Just diabolical.

[raz.org.rain]

 danm I wonder if that owes to the theory that a late season SSW would be beneficial for a warmer and drier summer? At some point, the pattern shifts and gets stuck with the opposite synoptics. That could be ideal if you like hot and dry summers à la 2018.

[Bats32]

 raz.org.rain We had a late SSW last year did we not and the summer was mostly poor?

[Lee Notts]

 Bats32 last summer was combined with an el nino though..  Did that play a part in summer last year going down hill in mid July?  That won't be a factor this year.

Edited April 25 by Lee Notts
More comment clarity

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Lee Notts Expect the worst hole for the best ...

[Alderc 2.0]

Was it reallY meant to rain this much today? 

[SunnyG]

 Lee Notts Mid July??? Here it was chucking it down from the 1st July.

[raz.org.rain]

Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.

[damianslaw]

 Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months. 

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.

No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best. 

[baddie]

 Lee Notts Oh no. We WILL be getting another July 2023 this year, I just know it. But this time, we will have a May 2021 and June 2012 preceding it instead, and there is absolutely no escaping that

[SummerShower]

 baddie as long as we get an August 2008 or 2010 to follow, just for consistency.

[baddie]

 SummerShower Nah, it will be an August 1912. The weather gods would be ready to pull their evilest trick by late-July. Then an extremely wet and dull Autumn that makes 2000 and 2019 look good in comparison and a repeat of December just gone but without that cold and snowy start

[reef]

 danm I don't think this weather is due to the SSW. If anything, its the lack of northern blocking or high pressure around the British Isles that has been the issue. We've spent months stuck under a trough dragging in mild Atlantic air. Only in the last week or so has it changed.

It has essentially been a continuation of the rubbish we've had for 10 months now. I would argue the SSW wasn't responsible and didn't really amount to much as there hasn't really been much of a pattern change. It basically fizzled to nothing and nothing changed!

Edited April 28 by reef

[summer blizzard]

 reef I suspect that the SSW impact is producing the blocking episodes given that the tropics have been fairly muted but SSW’s dont guarantee everlasting north blocking and cool weather here. In this case it’s just produced downwelling periods of weaker zonal winds that we’ve occasionally tapped into. 

With the tropics becoming active again in the west Pacific, I’d imagine we will lose any northern blocking into early to mid May.

[Snowyowl9]

The second half of april has been a welcome contrast very dry and cold NNElys frost spring is running late this year shows as the trees are late..

[SunnyG]

Back in the mod thread, the warmth is expected for mid-May. When have I heard that one (settled weather incoming) before, like a hundred times lmao

Edited April 28 by SunnyG

[B87]

 SunnyG  Soon it'll be late May, then mid June. Then maybe July...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Bats32 last year's summer was actually pretty average with June and july pretty much cancelling each other out and August was very nondescript.  The met office assessment of the summer of last year is it was a hot season alongside 11% more rain and 6% more sunshine.   Think the weather at weekends skewed peoples perceptions of summer of last year.   Having el niño and an east QBO combination was a clear cut reason why we had the summer we did last year.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 baddie you confident of that coming off or is it a mere hunch?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Lee Notts what we will probably have is a neutral summer trending towards la niña as the summer progresses.   Also the QBO will trend into more of a westerly regime as the summer progresses but i do also reckon the east QBO we have currently has peaked already, it'll probably be neutral QBO by the end of the summer and full on westerly by December.    

[damianslaw]

This thread fast becoming a summer chat thread, there is a separate thread for discussing summer prospects. Alas with only May left I expect this thread to become more one of reflecting on the Spring just gone.

So far it has by and large from a sunshine and dry perspective been a poor one, will May make up for this. Typically we see sunshine levels near their annual peak in May and lengthy dry periods can be a strong feature of the month along with the first notable warmth of the year, low to mid 20s can easily be achieved under large high pressure systems directly aloft, under modest upper air temps, don't need southerly plumes.

I'm not gaining a sense of any prolonged very dry very warm weather anytime soon, but things can quickly change. 

Edited April 28 by damianslaw

[danm]

5 hours ago, reef said:

I don't think this weather is due to the SSW. If anything, its the lack of northern blocking or high pressure around the British Isles that has been the issue. We've spent months stuck under a trough dragging in mild Atlantic air. Only in the last week or so has it changed.

It has essentially been a continuation of the rubbish we've had for 10 months now. I would argue the SSW wasn't responsible and didn't really amount to much as there hasn't really been much of a pattern change. It basically fizzled to nothing and nothing changed!

I think the SSW helped to reinforce northern blocking, and has allowed a southerly tracking jet to persist for longer. We can never know for sure if it is due to the SSW, but the main reason we’ve had troughs milling about in the mid latitudes is due to northern blocking. 

Edited April 28 by danm