Spring 2024

[B87]

 richie3846 We average 4 months with 200+ hours.

May: 207 hours

June: 208 hours

July: 218 hours

August: 202 hours

The last year that saw 4 months with 200 hours was 2018. Before the 2007-2012 nonsense, it was much more common and stable.

In 2024 so far, we have seen just 316 hours of sun. Typically by the end of April, you would expect around 441 hours.

Edited April 20 by B87

[richie3846]

 B87 yes I understand the concept that there are 4 months on average that are over 200 hours, but that doesn't mean each 4 month peak sun period will have above 200 hours of sun, even if it ends up being sunny overall. What I was trying to say was that measuring 835 hours over the 4 months may be more balanced and fair. 

[B87]

 richie3846 By the end of April, we will still be over 100 hours short compared to average. We aren't going to get a 300+ hour May to get us back on track for the year. If anything I think that May will continue the current pattern.

[richie3846]

 B87 agreed, it's unlikely you'll catch up. It's been a little sunnier here so not so far behind average. The point I was making was more of a general observation about the nature of averages, and how statistics can sometimes lead our thinking down a particular path, rather than this year specifically.

[reef]

 richie3846 Yes, 2022 for example didn't have 4 months with 200+hours at Heathrow but was a very sunny year, as was 2020. Years where all four months that average over 200 hours actually manage to reach it are always going to be a rarity.

[stewfox]

Interesting that my location and Yakutsk both say max 7c tomorrow. 

On 22 January 2025 it will be 7c my location -50c for yakutsk

 

[SunnyG]

It looks like mainland Europe will go back top high temps just as we get yet more rain. I need to move to the desert not just to the Med lmao

[B87]

 reef Yet we can pretty much guarantee that August will be duller than average most years, or that this year will be one of the dullest years on record.

It should work both ways.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I thought this weekend was supposed to be settled but cloudy. But it has actually turned out settled and sunny with just a few small wispy clouds here and there. The Met Office got it wrong yet again. 

Edited April 21 by Weather Enthusiast91

[richie3846]

 B87 this makes no sense. It can't always be duller than average, because the average will then drop accordingly, depending on the timeframe being used for measurements. 

[B87]

 richie3846 When we do get sunny Augusts, the total just about creeps past average.

When we get dull Augusts, it's almost always extremely dull.

Back to 2006 when Augusts started falling apart, if we look at how many of them saw 30 hours more or less than average, it is very one sided.

>232 hours: 1 (2022)

<172 hours: 6 (2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2021)

When we look at June and July, we get an expected mix of sunny and cloudy months.

Edited April 21 by B87

[richie3846]

 B87 maybe on the next 30 year average, August will no longer have over 200 hours average. 

[B87]

 richie3846 Over the last 10 years, April is actually sunnier than August (both in the 190s), which is ridiculous.

If we are getting sunnier overall, why is August alone collapsing?

Edited April 21 by B87

[richie3846]

 B87 I've wondered the same thing. My hunch says it's increasing sea temperatures causing more August cloud. 

[reef]

August and April have very similar daylight hours, so the potential is always there for them to be similar. I would argue the reason is that the Augusts of the 1989-2006 period were abnormally above trend just as Aprils recently have been.

There are similar anomalies elsewhere. Here May is on average a sunnier month than June when June has longer days.

Edited April 21 by reef

[WYorksWeather]

For what little it's worth, CFSv2 is now going for a slightly warmer and drier than average May. That would do nicely.

Now all we need is for it to verify...

[SunnyG]

 WYorksWeather  That's a big ask...

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather 2018 style flip imminent hopefully 

[SunSean]

Spring used to be my favourite month as we used to get lots of sunshine, Summer to look forward to and the sun constantly getting higher and the days brighter. Lately however, its been one of the worst and dullest seasons which is a massive crime.

Here are how I'd rate the past 11 Spring months since 2021 down in Shoeburyness-

March 2021- Average 

April 2021- Excellent 

May 2021- Crap

March 2022- Good

April 2022- Average 

May 2022- Below average 

March 2023- Crap

April 2023- Below average 

May 2023- Average 

March 2024- Crap

April 2024- Crap

May 2024- Likely crap considering the pattern we have is unshakeable 

So Spring in Shoeburyness has been getting progressively worse year by year since the glorious 2020. What a time to be alive...

[raz.org.rain]

Signs of change for the first week of May, something warmer on the horizon.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain And wetter

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 raz.org.rain Yes, the rain will be warmer. 

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain Not on the most recent models...

[AWD]

The amount of times over the past few months there’s been “signs of a change in a couple of weeks”!

If only I were a betting man…….

[SunSean]

 AWD Always 10 days away! Be lucky if we even get a decent September at this rate.