Spring 2024

[WYorksWeather]

 sunny_vale Looks like 18.1C. Which is 0.1C short of the date record of 18.2C set in 2019.

[sunny_vale]

 WYorksWeather Not bad eh!

[WYorksWeather]

 sunny_vale I remember when I first stepped out the door today, the air felt slightly tropical. 15C and 80% humidity. Felt like after a thunderstorm in May or June, maybe.

[Earthshine]

Over 10 hours of sunlight here in Exeter tomorrow with sunset at 17:31.  Definitely noticing the sun getting stronger tomorrow with beautiful sunny skies and forecast temperatures up to 14°C.  The sun is climbing higher now, up to 27° above the horizon.  Looking forward to that first 20°C day now

Edited February 16, 2024 by Earthshine

[Summer8906]

Still struggling to consider it even slightly spring like here. The overriding feeling is very much autumn without the leaves, thanks to the damp air and pervading moist ground and damp surfaces. If I had to name a month that this week most closely resembles, it would be October.

Monday did feel spring like, to be fair, for one day, due to strong sunshine and much drier air. In fact Monday was far more spring-like than yesterday, IMO, despite being colder.  Yesterday was just plain unearthly for the time of year, the equivalent of getting a biting direct northerly in mid-August. The humidity and stuffiness, more typical of the transition from summer to autumn, was completely out of place for the time of year. And the air felt very unhealthy, more so even than the drizzly conditions on Wednesday.

For me spring will arrive when we get synoptics more typical of spring. This could include sunny weather with a large diurnal temperature range (cold nights, warmish days) or a northerly or NW-ly pattern with hail and sleet showers, well defined Cbs and bright sunshine in between.

Edited February 16, 2024 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 To be fair I did think yesterday felt springlike, but it was more late spring, probably the way the air feels after a thunderstorm in May.

The cold nights warm days thing for me tends to feel more stereotypically March or early April. It felt more like we've skipped those and gone straight to May.

[Frigid]

 WYorksWeather Did feel a bit like 31st March 2017, but six week earlier. Got quite stuffy last night had to open the windows. The spell we got in Feb 2008/2019 featured mild days and frosty nights which is what I expect from a mild spell in February. Yesterday felt like early June, you usually do get lower temps around here in summer. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Frigid What is becoming quite notable is how hard is to get anything below average temperature wise at the moment. We have a pretty decent signal for the flow to turn north of west next week, and yet temperatures only dip back to around average for the time of year. It might well feel cold since we've got used to April/May temperatures over the last few days, but still not much more than a ground frost for most of us.

I do think there's a sizeable chance now that many areas may go the whole of February without an air frost.

[Summer8906]

On 12/02/2024 at 16:01, Metwatch said:

Quite a noticeable growth for bluebells in recent weeks! If April is warmer than last year they should come to flower a few weeks earlier than last spring I'd have thought!

Not good at all, though. As I've said, who wants a spartan, bland and colourless May with all the usual flowers gone?

Edited February 16, 2024 by Summer8906

[Frigid]

 WYorksWeather Thought the same too, the mild regime is becoming quite established atm. Haven't seen a below average month since Dec 22, and that month featured a lengthy mild spell. The streak of mild months is going to have to break at some point.. Perhaps it be this spring. I genuinely think its more likely we see air frosts in Spring than this month given zonal winds weakening and a higher likelihood of blocking. April has seen it's fair share of frosts lately, wouldn't be surprised if April was cooler than February this year..  

[WYorksWeather]

 Frigid You're right that the run must break at some point, but I think in spring, since the temperature gradient within months is quite large, we'd need a strong signal for a significantly cold start to a month.

For example, to get a cold March, we'd probably need the first half to see the currently forecasted north-westerly swing into a straight northerly and then a north-easterly, with a fair dumping of snow allowing some very cold overnight lows, then a slow thaw as the wind direction shifts. That might give you say a first week with a 1C CET, and then a second week something like a 3C CET, for an average of 2C by mid-month, say.

You'd then need just an 'ordinary mild' rest of the month, around 6C or 7C, and the CET would finish in the 4s, giving you a below average month on 1961-1990. And you'd need to avoid any silly heat spikes, unless they were very brief.

Just striking writing that out how difficult an ask that seems nowadays. I'm effectively saying we need a mini-BFTE, then a cold zonal pattern, and then flattish westerlies with few south-westerlies.

Essentially it all comes down to the SSTs, and the mildness (or even warmth) of the Azores SSTs at the moment means that any south-westerly influence for more than a few days is enough to completely scupper any chance of a cold month. So we need a pattern that blocks off the south-westerlies for virtually the entire month.

 

[Summer8906]

12 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

ssentially it all comes down to the SSTs, and the mildness (or even warmth) of the Azores SSTs at the moment means that any south-westerly influence for more than a few days is enough to completely scupper any chance of a cold month. So we need a pattern that blocks off the south-westerlies for virtually the entire month.

I guess later in spring though, warmth is not driven by SWlies but by warm SE-lies from southern Europe. So if we got an April with no SE-lies but say two weeks of N-lies or NW-lies (say 1C below 61-90 average), one week of anticyclonic weather with a large diurnal range (say 0.5C above, fairly warm days but cold nights) and one week of SW-lies (0.5C above average due to very mild nights, but rather cool days) we could achieve a slightly cold April relatively effortlessly. (All wrt 61-90)

Edited February 16, 2024 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What is more noteworthy is how hard it is just to get sun in inland Hampshire these days!!!!!! The past year has been pure helll

[raz.org.rain]

I'm not too confident that we'll see any signifiant cold going into spring. There's no significant reserve for us to tap into. Everything is pointing towards a very persistent southerly influence, bar the possible NW'lies next week.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 Frigid  WYorksWeather I think our climate on the whole is more benign these days compared to how it used to be. Including little to no snow in winter as well as little to no thunderstorms during the summer. The winter season in particular is very short nowadays.

February seems to be increasingly becoming more like a spring month whilst December and January are autumnal months.

Edited February 16, 2024 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Metwatch]

4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Not good at all, though. As I've said, who wants a spartan, bland and colourless May with all the usual flowers gone?

I don't remember May 2020 or 2022 being that bad, and it wasn't cold from February until early summer both years.

I think if spring is wetter like 2023, that seems to have the best flowering display. 2021, May was very wet but seemed to be decent, following a chilly but dry and bright April. 2019 and with the early spring conditions in February but cooler March, led to April seeing an okay display. 2018 was delayed but I remember it not being too bad either. What were some other years with early springs like if you remember well?

[Summer8906]

47 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

think if spring is wetter like 2023, that seems to have the best flowering display. 2021, May was very wet but seemed to be decent, following a chilly but dry and bright April. 2019 and with the early spring conditions in February but cooler March, led to April seeing an okay display. 2018 was delayed but I remember it not being too bad either. What were some other years with early springs like if you remember well?

The ones I do remember were 2014 and 2017. 2014 had persistent mild without a break until more or less the late-May bank holiday and I do remember the flowers being past their best rather early in May, with even rhododendrons well on the wane by mid-month. I also remember cherry blossom in decline by the Easter weekend which was admittedly just past mid-month that year, but even still, you don't expect it to be in decline that early.

2017 was similar.

But neither seemed to be quite so insanely mild as this February is turning out to be.

Going further back 2007 is the most obvious year with extreme mild early in the year, but I didn't take such notice of spring flowering then. Doubtless that year was probably the earliest it had been.

2020 it was lockdown so wasn't taking much notice anyway, while I do remember May 2022 being a little bit bland from a flowering POV, again due to excessive mildness.

In 2016 we got very, very lucky though. Things were even earlier than this year but the cool March did wonders in slowing spring flowering down and preventing an unduly early end to spring.

When the weather finally got warmer in mid-April 2013 things were incredibly beautiful. Indeed from a flowering POV, 2013 plus 2010 (both years with plenty of cold in late winter) and 2015 (close-to-average Feb and March) were probably the best.

Edited February 16, 2024 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Yep, later in spring mildness will focus more on the continent. Was thinking more imminently about early spring when the continent can still be cold in March.

[MP-R]

Just been for a very quick visit to east Anglia and it’s noticeable how more springlike it looks compared to back home in North Somerset. Lots more blossoms out and daffodils. Maybe the benefit of being that bit warmer, drier and brighter.

[raz.org.rain]

First reference to early warmth I've seen in regards to the latest SSW, everyone else assumes a return to the freezer.

 

[Frigid]

 raz.org.rain literally anything can happen.. cold, warmth or nothing like we've seen with the past few SSWs. One thing we can agree with, is that zonal winds will be very low into March so be prepared for some wild weather! 

[Metwatch]

A few more signs nature is in spring mode now from today:

Green alkanat starting to flower in the garden, usually happens early to mid April.

 

I think this is Hawthorn, also looking more like what you would normally expect late March to early April!

[damianslaw]

 Frigid Last July nearly came in below 61-90 mean and was comfortably below 81-10 mean. I'd rather see the next below 61-90 month occur either March or an Autumn month than Apr- Aug.. we shall see.

Back to thoughts on spring, always the most unpredictable season and by far most interesting one on a synoptic level, as the atlantic tends to be less dominant and unusual set ups occur. I suspect it could be a volatile spring with quite sudden changes from cold to mild and back again, more so late March onwards. 

[SunSean]

I think what the UK needs this year is a really wet Spring. This drought we are in is unprecedented! Swear we had 1 or 2 dry days this week which is not normal at all but luckily for us, we are back to the relief of non stop drizzle again today. I can't bear the thought of our wonderful bogs drying out if we were to go a week or 2 without our rain. I don't wanna live in a world where I don't sink into the abyss of a giant puddle while out walking the dog!

Also we need a very dull Spring too because we've had far too much sun lately despite 4 record breaking cloudy months. I fear the terrifying scenes of lobster people roaming the streets after being in the sun so it's a relief to see that vibrant grey sheet dominate our landscape for months on end!

Let's hope our glorious wet & dull theme continues ad infinitum right guys?? .....Guys?....Oh.

[kold weather]

We could definately use a fairly prolonged drier than normal spell now, 12 month mean is now running close to record levels of wet.