Spring 2024

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

According to a post in the model thread there's a significant reserve of warm air to the south, supposedly one of the more exceptional synoptics in 20 years. Ideally this will prevent any late winter/spring/summer destroying cold air masses from pushing downwards into the UK yet again.

Considering there seems to be a significant southerly bias to our weather systems, which has even managed to win out against what is apparently the strongest chances of a cold blocked winter since 2010, it's probably safe to assume that warmer synoptics coming in from the south are a lot more likely to be a feature of our weather. 
 

I'm incredibly pessimistic after what happened last year, it really would be extremely unlucky for the Arctic to have such a strong foothold outside of winter in 2024, especially considering how much it has struggled to get near us in the dead of winter. With such a large amount of warmth to our south ready and waiting to push northwards, it does seem like everything is lined up nicely for anyone wanting mild.

 

If these CFSv2 charts turn out anywhere near right, the rest of January and the first half of February will feel like an early Spring for many of us!

Most places Midlands south 3-4C above normal through to the 4th February.

Still very warm week 3, and only moderating a little in week 4.

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

If these CFSv2 charts turn out anywhere near right, the rest of January and the first half of February will feel like an early Spring for many of us!

Most places Midlands south 3-4C above normal through to the 4th February.

Still very warm week 3, and only moderating a little in week 4.

Another set of cheery charts for late winter!

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Another set of cheery charts for late winter!

I'm still looking for cold charts until early March, but if we get to the last third of February and no cold on the horizon, I then make the switch. Probably the only exception would be if we got a holy grail synoptic, like 20C and sunny. I would enjoy that, despite how ludicrously unseasonal it would be.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I'm still looking for cold charts until early March, but if we get to the last third of February and no cold on the horizon, I then make the switch. Probably the only exception would be if we got a holy grail synoptic, like 20C and sunny. I would enjoy that, despite how ludicrously unseasonal it would be.

Probably more likely than cold next month.  That's going to become more common moving forward.

[Summer8906]

42 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

If these CFSv2 charts turn out anywhere near right, the rest of January and the first half of February will feel like an early Spring for many of us!

Most places Midlands south 3-4C above normal through to the 4th February.

;

Still very warm week 3, and only moderating a little in week 4.

 

To be honest I'm hoping for anything - and I mean anything - other than this ridiculous mildness. In keeping with the thread topic I really fear for the effect on spring flowering at the proper time if we get 3 weeks of silly temps. It really would be awful if after this exceptionally poor winter we end up with a spring devoid of flowering at the proper time, and a spartan May.

Much as I believe we've had way too much rain, I'd prefer very wet with average temps for the foreseeable, than this.

Edited January 22 by Summer8906

[ANYWEATHER]

Spring has sprung ,on February 1st ,according to Ecm, I still believe Winter has got a big Sting in its tail ...?..

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Spring has sprung ,on February 1st ,according to Ecm, I still believe Winter has got a big Sting in its tail ...?..

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I'm still looking for cold charts until early March, but if we get to the last third of February and no cold on the horizon, I then make the switch. Probably the only exception would be if we got a holy grail synoptic, like 20C and sunny. I would enjoy that, despite how ludicrously unseasonal it would be.

February seems to be turning more into a spring month these days. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 20C day in February at any time in the next few years. Becoming more commonplace as the years and decades go on.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I was happy as a sandboy last week with the crisp clear air and frozen ground.  It's what winter is meant to feel like, at least some of the time.

This stormy weather is less welcoming and I'm now on the countdown to meteorological spring and something approaching 16C, sunny and calm.  38 days and counting.    

I'll move heaven and earth to get out of January in the UK in the future.  

Edited January 23 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Metwatch]

In terms of spring perferences, a warm and dry one would be my most preferred. Ideal spring would be as follows:

1st half of March, 2018 mixed in with 2023. Reason being is that early March still feels like an extension of winter, and often isn't that warm, so snow I wouldn't mind, however warmth would also be much welcome like in March 2012. By the second half of March, i'm strongly against cold, and so something like 2022 with the last 2 days being like 2021 would be great.

In terms of April and May, 2020 were just perfect, no need to mix them up with other ones, however some more thunder would be nice like in the Mays of 2018 or 2023 along with the warmth and dryness. I think in April 2020 I did manage to see a storm on the 11th with the odd flash or 2.

 

Edited January 26 by Metwatch

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Are we nearly there yet?? ...

[cheeky_monkey]

On 23/01/2024 at 05:26, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I'll move heaven and earth to get out of January in the UK in the future.

come live in Edmonton in January it's great 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

34 days to go . Noticed this evening a definite change in the look of the weather. More definition in the clouds. The glare of the sun off the trees. Light in the sky at 17.20. Two thirds through on 30th Jan. Winter on its way out

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

  @cheeky_monkey yes I would love to visit somewhere for a snowier winter. Ita one of the downsides to living in lower areas of England. Virtually no snow now. This latter half of Jan is super mild. If it can't be below zero and snow, be dry warm and calm winds for me.

Edited January 27 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[damianslaw]

Crocus appeared early this week, very early, normally mid Feb.

Get ready for lots of early blooming daffodils, which in early Feb just seems wrong, later in the month I can except somewhat.. 

[cheese]

  @NEVES SCREAMER heard a song thrush singing this morning. Spring vibes. 

[damianslaw]

Remarkably at the head of Great Langdale valley, hardly a hotspot, primrose and daffodil are out.

[raz.org.rain]

I've heard some birds singing in the evening. I thought it was too early but it's probably about the right time for courting. Hopefully we won't see any abnormally cold weather in spring otherwise nature will really struggle.

[Arctic Hare]

On 22/01/2024 at 21:27, WYorksWeather said:

if we got a holy grail synoptic, like 20C and sunny. I would enjoy that, despite how ludicrously unseasonal it would be.

Yep, me too. Actually if we're going to go there then we might as well do it full-on and break the Feb all-time max. We have 21.2 °C at Kew Gardens in 2019 to beat. The way things have been going in recent years, I suspect it will go this decade even if not this year.

[WYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

Yep, me too. Actually if we're going to go there then we might as well do it full-on and break the Feb all-time max. We have 21.2 °C at Kew Gardens in 2019 to beat. The way things have been going in recent years, I suspect it will go this decade even if not this year.

You may be right. However, given the February record was set fairly recently it probably has less scope to be broken again so soon, and if it is broken, probably only marginally. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more February date records go though - I did a post in the model thread and there may be chances from the 1st-3rd February.

However, in nearly all record databases I've seen, the month that seems to be bucking the trend the most is May. There have been around 100 daily records set in the 21st century, but only three in May. Therefore, I think we're overdue to see some very extreme temperatures in May. The earliest 30C is on the 12th May - I wonder if one might be possible right at the start of the month (maybe even late April). The 32.8C all-time record is also from a century ago - similar synoptics today should realistically get to 34C at least.

[Catherine91]

I've seen a couple of trees with blossom on them as well as plenty more with buds. A few bird species have started making sounds that remind me of spring!

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Rather chilly in the breeze but not bad for January. We are in to the coldest bit of the year. Nothing cold for my team Wolves beat WBA in the FA CupNo doubt winter will have a sting in the tail. Still Feb and March to go for cold fans. 

[hillbilly]

  @Catherine91 Snowdrops appeared here in the last few days,a week or two later than the average [last 20 years or so]

[Summer Sun]

Not long to go now.

[Arctic Hare]

I definitely seem to have flipped early to "let's get to spring" mode this year. I really have little interest in a cold spell in the middle of February this time. A really nice very mild spell (high teens) before month's end would be welcome in these parts, as long as it was a dry one. Ideally with a decent amount of sun as well, of course!

[raz.org.rain]

Despite what the forecasts are suggesting, I still get the feeling we're due for an early warm spring... but we'll see, I guess. I'm not expecting anything spectacular in the form of cold from now on.