Spring 2024

[Summer8906]

52 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

Well there's definitely potential for the first "springlike" day of the year under a ridge on Friday, 12c and sunny in late Jan is as good as it gets!

 

Mind you 12 between 0100 and 0200 just sounds like a warm sector on steroids passing through overnight! From the graph the 3C looks like it'll occur at midnight at the opposite end of the day; looks like a cold front will clear out the muck around daybreak on Friday.

Edited January 21 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, SunSean said:

The last great Spring we had was 2020 so I think we are overdue one again now!

Spring 2021 had a fine enough March, lovely crisp & sunny April but a rubbish wet May

Spring 2022 had a wonderful March but April & May were about normal, not too bad but nothing standout

I've noticed there isn't as much love for April 2022 as I would expect. Here, a typically dry, sunny and warm April of recent years and a very nice month but maybe my location was unusually favoured.

May 2022 was much less settled than April though it did have the good fortune of having a series of fine weekends which made it seem better than the raw stats would show.

Edited January 21 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I think an absolutely record-flattening May is probably due, to be honest. If not this year then in the next few before 2030. Significant heatwave lasting a few days exceeding 30C, all time record going with a max of 33C-34C, and a lack of any notable cool spells to balance it out. CET breaking the 15.1C from 1833. Doubtful all of those metrics will be broken in the same month, but all of them have stood for a long time.  We've had a lot of notable record-breaking months or days in the last 10 years or so in summer, autumn and winter, but less so in the spring, so I really think we're due a real month to remember.

Whether it will happen this year or not is of course impossible to predict!

Perhaps though the lack of any real build up of heat by May, and the still cool seas, will prevent any really hot temps occurring. Even many parts of Mediterranean countries often seem to struggle to pass 30C in May so here in northwest Europe I do wonder whether we'll get above 31 or 32 anytime soon in the most extreme case.

April also has never AFAIK beaten the 29C reached in 1949 and I wonder whether it's for similar reasons, though of course Aprils with consistent moderate warmth are commonplace nowadays.

Edited January 21 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

I basically like abnormally cold from July to February but actually I love spring warmth, it has very low humidity normally. March 12 honestly spoiled me and made me completely flip.

In terms of how things look, although it appears that Nino has peaked, it's probably not going to collapse in a 2010 style crater (basically one neutral month then Nina) which means that we can reasonably assume that we are looking at Nino, -QBO and -PDO.

Generally speaking I see a good chance that spring will be relatively cool with average to cool (and likely damp) March and April before a warmer than average May. 

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Perhaps though the lack of any real build up of heat by May, and the still cool seas, will prevent any really hot temps occurring. Even many parts of Mediterranean countries often seem to struggle to pass 30C in May so here in northwest Europe I do wonder whether we'll get above 31 or 32 anytime soon in the most extreme case.

April also has never AFAIK beaten the 29C reached in 1949 and I wonder whether it's for similar reasons, though of course Aprils with consistent moderate warmth are commonplace nowadays.

I agree it would need the right combination of factors. Probably above normal sea surface temperatures, a very direct southerly draw following an early heatwave in Southern Europe, and good timing, falling in late May rather than early May.

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I agree it would need the right combination of factors. Probably above normal sea surface temperatures, a very direct southerly draw following an early heatwave in Southern Europe, and good timing, falling in late May rather than early May.

I guess it could happen thinking about it if at the very very end of May. How hot did early June 1996 get? Didn't June 7th (the day with the noteworthy storms) reach 33-34, or something of that order? If so, that's only a few days off May.

(EDIT: yes it did, according to Trevor Harley: "33.1C at St. James's Park, Westminster, London, on the 7th; a temperature this high so early in the year only happens a few times this century.")

Edited January 21 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

Just now, Summer8906 said:

I guess it could happen thinking about it if at the very very end of May. How hot did early June 1996 get? Didn't June 7th (the day with the noteworthy storms) reach 33-34, or something of that order? If so, that's only a few days off May.

The reason I think it must be possible is we had 32.8C on 29th May in 1944. Hence by implication, the same synoptics now should at least theoretically produce 34C. The question would then be how rare those original synoptics were.

My usual rule of thumb is that if a record was set 20-30 years ago or more it would probably be 1C higher now, at a minimum.

[raz.org.rain]

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

The reason I think it must be possible is we had 32.8C on 29th May in 1944. Hence by implication, the same synoptics now should at least theoretically produce 34C. The question would then be how rare those original synoptics were.

My usual rule of thumb is that if a record was set 20-30 years ago or more it would probably be 1C higher now, at a minimum.

I apply a similar rule of thumb, that hotter temperatures are significantly more likely to occur than not these days. Also yeah, the older a temperature record is, the more expectation there is for it to fall imminently.

[damianslaw]

Signs of spring early again, as the norm it seems nowadays. I saw a snowdrop on Tuesday not that far away, and the daffodils look set to bloom anytime soon.

The recent cold spell will have stunted growth, but the mild is back and will spur it on again. Expecting an early bloom even if a long freeze in Feb happens. Not that unusual, but the mild autumn has probably spurred on a lot of early growth this year. 

[Sun Chaser]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I've noticed there isn't as much love for April 2022 as I would expect. Here, a typically dry, sunny and warm April of recent years and a very nice month but maybe my location was unusually favoured.

Was thinking that!! April 2022 definitely an underrated one coming after 2020 and 2021 which were both exceptionally sunny. But Apr 2022 was consistently well above average and fairly sunny from around the 11th onwards and very dry too. I started learning to drive that month and I remember lots of fine afternoons driving around

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:

Was thinking that!! April 2022 definitely an underrated one coming after 2020 and 2021 which were both exceptionally sunny. But Apr 2022 was consistently well above average and fairly sunny from around the 11th onwards and very dry too. I started learning to drive that month and I remember lots of fine afternoons driving around

And of course unlike 2020 and to a lesser extent 2021, with no lockdown you could enjoy it properly.

[Summer8906]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Signs of spring early again, as the norm it seems nowadays. I saw a snowdrop on Tuesday not that far away, and the daffodils look set to bloom anytime soon.

The recent cold spell will have stunted growth, but the mild is back and will spur it on again. Expecting an early bloom even if a long freeze in Feb happens. Not that unusual, but the mild autumn has probably spurred on a lot of early growth this year. 

Not good, as it spoils spring if you get flowers coming up in the dark, dull and damp days of late January or the first half of February. After a poor late summer, a poor autumn, and what is turning out to be one of the worst winters that I can remember (not quite as bad as 13/14, 15/16 or 19/20, but perhaps comparable with 89/90 or 06/07), last thing we really want is a spring spoiled by over-early flowering.  We were really, really lucky in 2016 that March and April were somewhat cool, I hate to think what might have happened had spring 2016 been warm. Daffodils all over by early March, bluebells over by late April, and a barren May devoid of flowers, perhaps.

To be honest I'm hoping for a cool (but dry) first half of spring but not sure it will happen.

Just another way in which things are becoming more bland and unexciting compared to the past. Summers are fairly poor (generally cloudy, warm by CET but many days of cool maxima), winters are dull, drab and dreary, and springs are increasingly being spoiled by flowers coming out at the wrong time, so May isn't as beautiful as it used to be. I'm coming to an increasing acceptance that if you want to enjoy the natural world in the UK, you have a harder time now compared to the late 20th century, due to the poorer climate and nature not sticking to its proper timetable. Compared to the 1980s (cold winters) and 1990s (warm summers), things weather wise (and as a result, nature wise) are much more bland and dreary these days.

Surprised autumn would have a lot to do with it, as autumn is the season where things wind down, so one might think that autumn temp would be irrelevant to spring flowering.

Edited January 22 by Summer8906

[JoeShmoe]

Hoping for a better march than last year, please god we don’t get another late winter SSW

[WeatherArc]

With spring beginning to appear on the horizon i thought it was worth looking at some long range models, they haven't been great the past year but its worth seeing if they are starting to sniff out a common theme for spring and early summer.  

The CanSIPS seems to think early spring will be cooler than average before transforming to above average mid spring onwards. 

I'm liking the look of the precip anomaly's as well, think we all need it after all the rain we had in Autumn

Height map aint bad either, bit of something for everyone, starting off with potential for cold easterly's before transitioning into what looks like a high pressure dominated late spring and summer

850 temps for summer 

 

Yesterdays CFS:

So perhaps staying cold late winter early spring before transitioning to warmer conditions, precip seems to stay somewhat average throughout spring before sliding below average for summer, lots of high pressure about especially late spring/summer. Interesting to see both models agreeing on above average 850 temps across Iberia, something to watch as we go forward. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Generally speaking I see a good chance that spring will be relatively cool with average to cool (and likely damp) March and April before a warmer than average May

What makes you say this?

El Nino? 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

What makes you say this?

El Nino? 

El Nino springs tend to be relatively cool between about mid Feb and mid April whether we get a SSW or not. They tend to feature May warmth. -QBO is only likely to enhance that.

 

[Atmogenic]

I really hope spring will mostly be a warm and dry season, i say mostly because i know there will be rain within it but just hope there is little to no cold enough conditions to get frost. The image below is from April 2018 and is what I miss a lot with us being in Winter

[Spikey M]

After an awful summer last year, I want the barbecue out early doors this spring please.

[cheeky_monkey]

i will take a May 2023 again please..it was the warmest month of the year with an average daily high of 24.5c ..sunny  dry and very warm from start to finish

[Harry233]

My predictions
 

March: (1st-6th)  A cold, frosty but sunny and dry spell with some very low minima, widely below -10.C on a couple of nights and highs only a few degrees above freezeing however with no snow at all, just bright blue sunny skies.

(7th-11th) A change to some milder weather but very unsettled with lots of heavy shower with hail and some snow across the mountains. Maxima of between 9.C-14.C and minima of around 2.C-6.C.

(12th-21st) High pressure takes over bringing much more settled and dry weather, a warm southerly develops on the 16th bringing maxima widely across the mid-high teens with 20.C being reached in a few southern areas for the first time of the year. Nights still remain widely in single figures.

(22nd-25th) A northerly plunge develops bringing a rapid change in temperature and snow widely across northern areas. Further south it remains calm but a lot colder with temperatures struggling to rise above 8-10.C and minima widely below freezing.

(26th-31st) Westerlies develop bringing a rather unsettled end to the month. A mix of sunny days and showers, temperatures generally around average with a couple of drier days having maxima around 16.C-18.C.

April

(1st-4th) April begins the same way March ended on a rather unsettled note but still with some drier breaks and average temperatures.

(5th-10th) An easterly develops bringing some very chilly weather to eastern coastal areas with some sea fog. Western areas see plenty of sunshine and dry weather with temperatures warming up to the high teens.

(11th-23rd) A warm southerly wind develops bringing the first of the proper spring warmth. Temperatures are above 20.C in all areas with the south getting the vast majority of the heat. The highest temperature reaching 26.C in the south east. 

(24th-30th) Winds veer more easterly again with the best weather in the west and north, while further south and east it’s cooler but still pleasantly warm by day. Temperatures around the mid-high teens but low 20’s in western and northern areas.

May

(1st-3rd) 25.C is reached for the first time in the north western highlands. Very cold on the east coast with persistent haar. Maxima here of only 9.C.

(4th-14th) Low pressure develops and winds turn westerly. Very wet and dull spell in many areas with the west baring the brunt of it, some flooding in Scotland and north western England. Temperatures at or slightly below average.

(15th-22nd) The weather slowly begins to improve with high pressure taking charge gradually, very sunny spell across eastern areas but duller further west. Temperatures begin to slowly rise to the low 20’s.

(23rd-31st) High pressure is firmly established across the UK bringing hot, sunny and dry weather to all areas. Maximum temperatures soar to the mid to high 20’s across the north to the low 30’s in the south, record breaking heat on the 28th with 34.C reached in the south east. Unbroken sunshine and no rainfall during this period.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

8 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Hoping for a better march than last year, please god we don’t get another late winter SSW

That SSW really did a number on early to mid Spring last year. I know that certain regions elsewhere faired a bit better as they were not stuck under the daily North Sea clag cloud, nor marred by the strong, chilly North Sea breeze that plagued the SE and East of England in April to early June, but in my area, it was wintry in varying capacities until mid-late May. Even when the sun started to come at the end of May, in my ends, there was no residual warmth in the air that's common in spring in Essex/London by that time of year. No warmth at all until the June warm spell began. 

Some folks were rejoicing about the SSW cos it meant a last, semi-exciting gasp of winter...but its a steep price to pay.

Edited January 22 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Sun Chaser]

9 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

With spring beginning to appear on the horizon i thought it was worth looking at some long range models, they haven't been great the past year but its worth seeing if they are starting to sniff out a common theme for spring and early summer.  

The CanSIPS seems to think early spring will be cooler than average before transforming to above average mid spring onwards. 

I'm liking the look of the precip anomaly's as well, think we all need it after all the rain we had in Autumn

Height map aint bad either, bit of something for everyone, starting off with potential for cold easterly's before transitioning into what looks like a high pressure dominated late spring and summer

850 temps for summer 

 

Yesterdays CFS:

So perhaps staying cold late winter early spring before transitioning to warmer conditions, precip seems to stay somewhat average throughout spring before sliding below average for summer, lots of high pressure about especially late spring/summer. Interesting to see both models agreeing on above average 850 temps across Iberia, something to watch as we go forward. 

I'd bite your hand off to have the July and August that these are showing!!

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

That SSW really did a number on early to mid Spring last year. I know that certain regions elsewhere faired a bit better as they were not stuck under the daily North Sea clag cloud, nor marred by the strong, chilly North Sea breeze that plagued the SE and East of England in April to early June, but in my area, it was wintry in varying capacities until mid-late May. Even when the sun started to come at the end of May, in my ends, there was no residual warmth in the air that's common in spring in Essex/London by that time of year. No warmth at all until the June warm spell began. 

Some folks were rejoicing about the SSW cos it meant a last, semi-exciting gasp of winter...but its a steep price to pay.

Last spring was absolutely disgusting in terms of warmth, it was driving me crazy wondering when it would come. It's actually the reason I got into the wx community as the usual outlets were completely dismal with nothing on the horizon. June was a fantastic payoff but July and August was a massive downgrade.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

59 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Last spring was absolutely disgusting in terms of warmth, it was driving me crazy wondering when it would come. It's actually the reason I got into the wx community as the usual outlets were completely dismal with nothing on the horizon. June was a fantastic payoff but July and August was a massive downgrade.

Agree. June just was not enough to compensate for the lack of warmth leading it up or, and the lack of a proper summer there-after. It was only the latter part of August that brought a return to anything summery. 

Then of course we had the September heatwave, but again, I'd rather have 2 weeks of 20-25c, sunny conditions in July than 30c in September!

[raz.org.rain]

42 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Agree. June just was not enough to compensate for the lack of warmth leading it up or, and the lack of a proper summer there-after. It was only the latter part of August that brought a return to anything summery. 

Then of course we had the September heatwave, but again, I'd rather have 2 weeks of 20-25c, sunny conditions in July than 30c in September!

According to a post in the model thread there's a significant reserve of warm air to the south, supposedly one of the more exceptional synoptics in 20 years. Ideally this will prevent any late winter/spring/summer destroying cold air masses from pushing downwards into the UK yet again.

Considering there seems to be a significant southerly bias to our weather systems, which has even managed to win out against what is apparently the strongest chances of a cold blocked winter since 2010, it's probably safe to assume that warmer synoptics coming in from the south are a lot more likely to be a feature of our weather. 
 

I'm incredibly pessimistic after what happened last year, it really would be extremely unlucky for the Arctic to have such a strong foothold outside of winter in 2024, especially considering how much it has struggled to get near us in the dead of winter. With such a large amount of warmth to our south ready and waiting to push northwards, it does seem like everything is lined up nicely for anyone wanting mild.

 

Edited January 22 by raz.org.rain