Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem

[sundog]

Wonder could the reason behind the warm oceans ( also having an effect on temperatures around the planet) be because of the oceans currents not operating properly as usual due to climate change.  

Edited March 20 by sundog

[raz.org.rain]

 Catacol I've made some similar points before, and it seems I'm not alone. Generally there is an over reliance on computer modelling outputs where we assume that the conclusions are entirely reliable, despite the models having either an arguably limited data sample or not accounting for a crucial element. This is nobody's fault of course, the climate is just changing at a pace we're unfamiliar with.

 

The Royal Society actually published a piece last year that casts doubt upon AMOC modelling methods and how reliable the outputs are based on the method of paleoclimatic data sampling. Considering we're now seeing a real time demonstration of unexpected sea surface warming in the North Atlantic, I'd say it was a fair criticism.

[sundog]

Ssts  anomalies March, 84, 04, 24.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20 by sundog

[raz.org.rain]

 sundog cold blob making an appearance again We could be in for a hot and dry summer if it continues.

[sundog]

 raz.org.rain yes I noticed that.  Looks like it's back.

[SqueakheartLW]

5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

cold blob making an appearance again We could be in for a hot and dry summer if it continues.

I would have thought the reverse tripole would be the best anomaly pattern for a hot and dry summer like 2018

The cold blob summers between 2014 and 2017 I wouldn't call hot or dry.

2014 was probably the "best" of these summers but even that one I wouldn't call particularly dry. 2015 was generally poor overall apart from some drier days in June and the 1 day heat spike in July. 2016 was mixed and 2017 started out quite good but got worse as it went on.

 

[sundog]

 raz.org.rain

This article about the possible link between the cold blob and warm summers in Europe. 

Just a moment...

WWW.SCIENCE.ORG

 

Edited March 20 by sundog

[Don]

5 hours ago, sundog said:

Ssts  anomalies March, 84, 04, 24.

Only very slight changes during the last 40 years.....

[sundog]

 Don yes barely noticeable lol

[Don]

 sundog I wonder what the anomalies will look like in another 40 years?!

[Metwatch]

 

 

[Stationary Front]

Disappointing no snow winter again, 37 days where the temperature was 10c or more. Only 20 days where no rain recorded (340mm total). No snow days. Only 10 days where the temperature max was 5.0c or less. No ice days, and only 16 air frosts. 

[damianslaw]

 Stationary Front We managed 3 ice days in January and nearly 2 in December, quite respectful. There was notable cold in the north last day Nov, first couple days of Dec and 15-18 Jan, but fleeting. A shift south of the pattern and it could have been a notably cold winter.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A shift south of the pattern and it could have been a notably cold winter.

And we know the main culprit preventing that.....

[Man With Beard]

Might need to change the title of this thread to Winter and Spring post mortem!

The ultimate in winter/spring nightmare combos currently in the models - perfect winter synoptics occurring at the first possible moment where they probably won't deliver.

[danthetan]

 sundog Interesting at first glance, but  We're the other years el nino? That would account for the Pacific being warmer also in the 80's to late 90s the Atlantic was in the cold phase of the AMO and since then been in the warm phase that could account for current warmth. 

[Penrith Snow]

Although this was a rubbish winter it wasn't as bad as some recent ones in East Cumbria, we managed 3 snowfalls of 3cms or more, 7 days with lying snow and 3 ice days. Winters 2007, 2008, 2014, 2016 and 2017 were worse.

Rainfall was above average but not excessive, it was however very dull with little sunshine which added to the gloom.

Andy

[Iceni II]

Remember 2009. Went to Cornwall and have never experienced swimming in such a cold sea in August. Sure enough that winter was a proper winter with some snow… we all remember what happened in December 2010.

[damianslaw]

 Penrith Snow Agree, however, the winters mentioned and you forgot 13-14 are amongst the lowest of the lowest snow and cold wise.

The great proportion of winter 23-24 was dire from a cold/ snow perspective, rescued by 3 preety decent weeks, 30 Nov - 6 Dec, and 6-19 Jan. February was abysmal.

[damianslaw]

Some parts of the SW seem to be experiencing most snow of season so far this eve, 27 March!!!

[Penrith Snow]

 damianslaw And when you look at the current synoptics with a southerly flow over the SW you wouldn't forecast snow in January never mind late March.

With the SSTs it's remarkable really.

Andy

[philglossop]

What's even more surprising- is it stuck around!!! It was white this morning even here in normally mild Plymouth  

[damianslaw]

 Penrith Snow A classic surprise snowfall, can often pop up in spring. All due to a small low feature with cold air wrapped in, the track of the low meant places on its west flank were fed the cold air, hence why the SW and Wales had snow, alas as its tracked north, here its just rain. Arriving in the evening helped as well combined with rate of precipitation enabled evaporative cooling to take hold. Just shows never cast aside chance of snow until the season is out, and we have April and May yet. Had it arrived on Sunday for Easter, it would have made far more headlines, and further east no doubt!

Edited March 28 by damianslaw

[daz_4]

 jules216 Have to be said that the March analog did not work out at all. Warmest March on record here, almost 5C above average.

[jules216]

 daz_4 synoptically close to 2016 but the trough is anchored too much west. Hence crazy warm advections and only brief periods of frost. This Easter looks remarkable,just look at the temperature forecast for Monday. This Sahara advection in the air already here today. Easter 2023 we had snow!