Summer 2012 - worst summer ever?

[stainesbloke]

 danm I hated summer 2012. A few warmer days sprinkled in late summer were welcome but still nowhere near enough to make up for what came beforehand. ‘Highs’ of 20°C in July and August are just rubbish in London, I remember the grey skies and cold winds well. I was growing peppers in pots and they all rotted in situ. Vile

[danm]

 stainesbloke Oh agree, 2012 was by no means good. That August did have some decent weather though. Lots of days in the low to mid 20's with a fair amount of sunshine.

[Harry's House]

 danm Although a very poor summer, there was a definite improvement during the second half of July. We enjoyed a barbecue at my late brother-law's house on the 22nd July in fine weather.

[B87]

Of all the summer months that made up 2007 and 2012, only August 2012 was anything close to approaching normal.

June 2007 > June 2012

July 2007 < July 2012

August 2007 < August 2012

Summer 2007 was worse.

[Billy Hicks]

Yeah I really think 2012 gets far too poor a reputation, and it's mostly based on that infamous Jubilee weekend along with April and the rest of June. I look at photographs from that era and there's a lot of me and friends in hot sunny weather, mostly from late May around the time of the Eurovision Song Contest (Loreen's 'Euphoria' reminding me of a heatwave as I travelled to and from uni for my final year exams!) and the opening weekend of the Olympics, along with some festivals in the August having some nice blue skies too. And earlier on in that year we'd had that almost record-breaking sunny end of March so it really wasn't the disastrous year in London at least that it seems to have become known for, I'd even call it an underrated summer.

2007 though? Every photo I have is dark, grey, miserable skies and from memory that utterly deserves its miserable reputation. As does 2008 which gets a bit forgotten for a horrible August, and some brief but not particularly long lasting sunnier spells earlier in the season.

[Harry233]

 Billy Hicks I do believe that 2007 was definitely worse in the south and that 2012 was worse in the north. 2007 for me at least for me I had a July that wasn’t exceptionally dull or wet and the August that year was pretty good but on the cool side. 2012 however was just awful, we missed out on the heat of the end of July and even August while it wasn’t a write off of a month it was just bang average. 2012 did have like you say the March heatwave and also a good week in May where it was warm and sunny and the September that followed while cool was often sunny and dry.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Harry233 2007 though was a much warmer year in general than 2012.   At least in 2007 we had now the second warmest april in that year which was only bettered in 2011.   2007 as a year was the wettest year for three years.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Summer 2007 actually had more sunshine than 2012 although summer 2007 set the ball rolling for our climate change hiatus which lasted from July 2007 to June 2013.   

[Greyhound81]

I don't think any of the poor summers from 2007-2012 were as bad as the summers from 1985-1988.

Edited March 8 by Greyhound81

[B87]

The years 2007 and 2012 climate data for London

2007

2012

 

2007 was a better year than 2012.

Edited March 8 by B87

[SollyOlly]

I recall going to North Wales for two weeks in around early August that year...it was green, lush, and we had  a very good time walking some challenging tracks...! I do recall June being wet, but those two weeks in August, when my kids were young and we went up Snowdon, around Cwm Bychan/ Aberglaslyn etc...it was good! We always try to find something positive. I'm more concerned about the lack of seasonal weather in winter, really.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Greyhound81 it was obviously a climate change hiatus we had between those times.   

[Summer of 95]

I posted this on the 07 Vs 12 discussion, feel it needs to go here as well:

I've decided to work out out once and for all which is the worst summer on record for this area. Using the Met office data for Shawbury (1946-present, see note below on temperatures), I've gone through them all!

 

Dullest 10 summers:

2012  352.9

2020  367.7

2002  371.9

1980  375.6

2004  391.6

2008  399.9

1954  400.0

1978  401.4

1987  414.7

1966  419.2

(2007 is 11th with 421.2)

Note: The sunshine figure for June 1958 is missing from the Met office data page, the only month where it is. Comparing 140.5 at Ross on Wye and 139.3 at Ringway I've estimated 140 for Shawbury which gives 436.6 for 1958, and puts it 14th. 12th was 1948 with 423.4, and 13th, 2019 with 433.5- admittedly that might swap places with 1958. 2023 is 15th on 442.2 and notably is the dullest summer to contain a month with 200+ hours (June).

Wettest 10:

1958  332.0

2007  310.4

2012  297.0

2020  282.0

1957  255.6

1966  249.4

2019  248.6

1968  247.7

1992  241.6

1960  237.4

(1980 is not far behind on 231.4, 2008 had 223.0 and 1954 216.4)

Coldest 10 (mean max), the data for temperatures starts in 1957 but there were two outstandingly cold ones just before. To keep the same time period, I've estimated them from Ross on Wye and Ringway again (in brackets), as I'm fairly sure they were the top 2 coldest.

1954 estimated 17.5 (17.93, 17.17)

1956 estimated 17.8 (18.87, 17.23- much bigger difference than 1954. Shawbury is normally more like Manchester than Ross when this is the case. It's possible it was warmer than 1972, 1978 or 1962 but unlikely to have been over 18.3 IMHO)

1972  18.1

1978  18.17

1962  18.2

1985  18.37

1987  18.47

1965  18.57

1980  18.6

1988  18.63

(1966 18.77, 1986 18.83, 2012 19.0, 1958 and 1993 19.03, 2007 19.17)

 

For me, based on the stats it's between 2012, 2007, 1980, 1958 and 1954 for the worst. 

2007 for me was not as bad as 2012 because of its dry August (the driest month in any of the top 10 wettest summers)- also I remember the half of June being quite dry and 2012 I'm sure had more wet days. I actually thought 2008 was just as bad as well.

1958 was awful yet I never hear it mentioned unlike 1954 or 1956. Was it this bad everywhere? (Trevor Harley's site and other places I've looked suggest it was, except for northern Scotland). 

1966 was just very consistently poor without getting near any individual records. All three months were remarkably similar; 19.0, 18.6 and 18.7 for the maxima, 10.3, 10.1 and 9.6 minima. Rainfall was 95.2, 70.6 and 83.6 and sunshine 135.5, 136.6, and 147.1. Move over 2011, this was the ultimate monotonous "meh" summer! 18-19C, cloud and steady rain galore by the look of it.

1978 was cold and dull but not wet enough (186.4) to be considered.

2020 was outstandingly wet and dull, not far behind 2012. It was rather like the first half of 2012 followed by the second half of 2004. 2008 was another very dull and quite wet one that didn't make the cold category.

2002 was disgustingly dull, it didn't stand out for being cold or wet but I remember it lacked serious warmth and had quite a lot of days with rain.

Those 1985-88 summers were certainly cold but overall not especially wet or, 1987 apart, dull. They did have some awful individual months (a summer made up of June 1987, July 1988 and August 1986 would give 17.77C, 282mm and 379.7hrs) but no outstandingly bad whole summer. 1980 was far and away worse than any of them.

Many of the 1960s summers weren't too bad. Although they were often cool they contained a number of dry and sunny months.

Perhaps the tie breaker can be the "extended summer". Taking the summer half-year (April to September), we get:

April to September 1954: 16.33C (estimated, as above), 333.6mm, 835.9hrs

April to September 1958: 17.13C, 541mm, 837.3hrs

April to September 2012: 16.72C, 576.4mm, 792.3hrs

April to September 2007: 17.92C, 471.6mm, 894.1hrs

April to September 1980: 17.23C, 491.1mm, 884.1hrs

2012 is the worst! It's clearly worst of these 5 on two of the three criteria, and clearly second worst on the other. 2007 was nowhere near thanks to the splendid April and dry August and September. 1954 wasn't actually that wet, and the shoulder months were OK for sunshine. 1958 ran it closest; both Aprils were cold but 1958 was very dry and 2012 very wet. Both Septembers were very wet but 1958 was a full degree warmer.

It's 2012. Not just out of "those" summers but all of them for 78 years.

 

[Summer8906]

If one weights July and August higher (and perhaps one should) then 2012 is by no means the worst summer.

The kind of summers I detest (aside from the all-three-months-bad variety) are the ones which are OK in June then poor in July and August.

2012 was reasonable from mid-July onwards, though terrible before that.

If one combined the first half of 1986 and second half of 2012, you'd end up with a good-ish summer, despite both having a "reputation"..

Edited March 9 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Addicks Fan 1981 If I remember right it reached no.1 when the poor weather started and dropped from no.1 when it finished, on Sunday July 29th. Might have got that wrong though.

It's similar to how "Spaceman"'s reign on top in 1996 exactly co-incided with the late-winter cold spell, if I remember right.

[hillbilly]

 Summer of 95 As we all know Statistics do not give a picture how it really feels.I for one also think Summer really starts mid June so my perceptions for a poor summer are loaded on July and August,that is why i call 2010 a poor summer despite it having a very good June.I remember clearly 2007 being poor and wet but August was rather good and sunny despite it being cool[yes temperatures are decieving also] we cracked on with the haymaking that August.2008 however was dismal,it wasnt as wet as the others but endless weeks of showers,dull,cloudy garbage wears you down,the tractors parked up from the end of June right through to the 3rd week of September,unprecidented.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Summer8906 I think @Tamaraalluded us in the model threads with what went wrong with summer 2007.   We actually had a positive AO  during may 2007 bur when AAM spectacularly dropped so did the weather. 

Think the east QBO alongside negative zonal winds blowing through troposphere aligning with the weak sea ice enhanced the poor summer that was produced subsequently, the niño to niña flip didn't help either.   

Also we entered a weaker solar cycle too which is why we had the climate change hiatus the way it did up until June 2013.   After June 2013 climate change resumed.    

[damianslaw]

It indeed began very poor, June 2012 one of worse summer months I can recall, relentlessly wet, dull and very cool..July was also quite poor, but warmer at times, lots of thunder. August 2012 was half decent.

Summer 07 overall though was consistently very poor, and for this reason rank it lower than 2012, came as a shock on the back of 4 summers that featured appreciable long lasting heat at times, notably in 2003 and 2006.

Summer 08 was a slightly better version of 2007. We were dealt a poor run of summers between 2007-12 but also good winters for cold and snow, I do wonder if the weak solar cycle had a role to play....

Since summer 2013 by and large we've been locked in a run of average to very good summers for heat and dryness, with odd exceptions, and poor to very poor winters for cold and snow again with odd brief exceptions.

I remember being at this same juncture just before summer 2007..there was a marked shift in the jet south that summer.. 

 

Edited March 9 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw I think through summers 2007 to 2012 we had a long spell of below average AAM which is why we had the summers we had.   Also solar activity was low which is why our summers notoriously misbehaved.   

[Summer8906]

On 09/03/2024 at 13:53, damianslaw said:

Since summer 2013 by and large we've been locked in a run of average to very good summers for heat and dryness, with odd exceptions,

I have to disagree there, most of the summers since 2013 I would rate as unsettled and on the poor side. The only exceptions would be 2013, 2014, 2016 (dry cloudy July, reasonably nice August), 2018 and 2022.

IIRC every July and August from 2015-23 was cloudier than average in this area except August 2016, July 2018, and July and August 2022, and the following, IIRC, were wetter than average: July and August 2015; July and August 2017; August 2018; August 2019; August 2020; July 2021; July and August 2023.

Basically many post-2015 summers rival 2007-12 for "unsettledness" but have been less cool, and I would rate the summers of 2009 and 2010 higher than 2015, 2020, 2021 or 2023.

I think the cause (as I've said before) is a tendency for recent summers to be very southwesterly, which in this area (more so than places further east or northeast) generally produces dull and damp conditions. The 07-12 summers by contrast had more winds north of west, hence cooler.

Edited March 11 by Summer8906

[danm]

On 08/03/2024 at 20:52, B87 said:

The years 2007 and 2012 climate data for London

2007

2012

 

2007 was a better year than 2012.

The year as a whole or just the Summer? 

As for the Summer, the worst month out of the 6 was June 2012, by far. The best out of the 6 was August 2012. 

Overall I preferred 2012 because it at least had some hot weather. The end of July and August had a fair amount of warm and sunny weather. August 2007 was a little sunnier, but a fair bit cooler. August 2007 had four days above 25c, August 2012 had eight, with two days above 30c. 2007 never exceeded 29c in London that whole Summer. 

Edited March 11 by danm

[B87]

 Summer8906 Most of the central south coast had around 300 hours in June 2023.

August 2019 was duller than average there?

Edited March 11 by B87

[Summer8906]

 B87 True but a June doesn't make a summer.

August 2019 certainly seemed duller than average, as said in the other thread there were constant changeable southwesterlies from the 5th-19th. There was a very sunny week after that, and a couple of sunny days round the 2nd/3rd but I'd strongly suspect it was dull.

[Harry233]

 B87 how do you make a climate graph like that? 

[B87]

 Harry233 Using the weatherbox template on Wikipedia