Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless

[kold weather]

 CryoraptorA303 Funnily enough I'm seeing far more similarities at least at the moment to April 2021 in terms of a strong developing -ve NAO signature showing up in early April. 

With that being said as long as we can hold either signal and it doesn't just limply decay like it has done several times already this winter (and with the usual PV decay anyways) I do think the upcoming 30-45 days will look considerably different, albeit I think with a greater risk on the colder side with short warming bursts thrown in as well should the pattern shift too far west.

Its just a shame that typical La Nina summers after mod-strong el Nino don't have a very good track record at all, could easily see a shift back into a more zonal set-up again this summer. The hope will be should that happen we can get enough ridging in that we just end up with one of the historic meh summers (though even in those, there are some good spells for the south it has to be said at times)  rather than one of the downright stinkers.

Then we simply have the odds, we are already running at record levels over 18 months, I think at some point even if its part of a longer decadal pattern your still going to get 1-3 month periods that snap out of that, and apart from Jan-Feb 23 and May-Jun 23 we've not seen anything like that since September 22. We are well overdue for a balancing out now....even adjusting for CC rainfall inflation so to speak.

[raz.org.rain]

 kold weather I'm still running on the assumption that this absurd duration has to break at some point and likely will do for summer, so we could end up with summer 2024 bucking that notion of El Niño to La Niña transitions causing terrible summers.

[Frigid]

 kold weather Will be quite something if April comes in cooler than February and March. When was the last time that happened? 

 

[LetItSnow!]

 Frigid Unless I've missed a year, you have to go back 121 years to 1903 to find this occurence. I think April 1903, while not the coldest April ever, had a very low monthly maximum countrywide of just 17C, then one of the worst summers on record and then the wettest month ever recorded in October 1903 with an average of 218mm. To say 1903 was anti-seasonal was an understatement...  A general repeat of that for 2024 would surely drive the members of this forum to near-zero- and the country underwater!

[CryoraptorA303]

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

A general repeat of that for 2024 would surely drive the members of this forum to near-zero- and the country underwater!

Geography would be permanently changed... The last time this happened was a year in the 1200s I believe which saw a storm surge so severe that the coastline in Kent changed by up to 2 miles.

Edited March 23 by CryoraptorA303

[LetItSnow!]

 CryoraptorA303 I’m not quite sure it would be as extreme as your fantasy reviews, but an extremely wet summer could prove to be a worry if we were to have any long spells of torrential rain. In June 1903 there was a spell of torrential rain that lasted non stop over London for days and dropped nearly 200mm. That was terrible then but a similar event occurring now with the southeast very much running unprecedentedly wet would be very unfortunate. 

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 funnily enough I think the long range forecasts are still not really suggesting any strong signals for May. June is similar but with more of a suggestion of a scandi high (June 2023 repeat perhaps?). I guess in this case, no signal is a good signal, at least there's no strong signal for more rain in those months.

Edited March 23 by raz.org.rain

[Frigid]

 LetItSnow! 

An interesting stat for sure. Who knows, will this year break the 121 year streak? We'd only need an April cooler than 7.8C which is manageable. April 2016 and 21 recent examples. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 LetItSnow! Jesus, considering today a similar downpour spell would see 250-300mm in the same area and how wet it's already been, the effects would be disastrous. Public transport would be taken offline for weeks in all likelihood... If it's bad enough then sections of deep-level tube might be permanently destroyed.

Here in Kent I imagine a lot of the Medway valley would see irreparable damage. The floodplain including areas like Yalding has already seen stupid amounts of flooding this winter, there would be a serious chance of these villages and towns being completely destroyed. If it's really bad enough then the top of the Medway could expand into a new estuarine area and destroy a lot of the Medway conurbation... the economic damages and humanitarian crisis such an event would cause would be catastrophic.

Speculation like this is a good demonstration of the fact that flooding is this nation's biggest danger in the context of climate change, a lot of our land is very low-lying and vulnerable to sea level rise and intensification of storm systems.

Edited March 23 by CryoraptorA303

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 LetItSnow! this is too small to read 

[LetItSnow!]

 *Stormforce~beka* It glitched. You’ll have to look closer lol. 

[Weather-history]

From the Independent of June 2013

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Well, there looks to be no reprieve in sight, folks. 

Just more, and more, and more of the same. Repeatum infinitum. 

If anything, next week is looking even worse lol - if those forecasts manifest. Dull, wet but colder. 

I didn't think it'd be possible but thus far, 2024 is actually worse than 2023. Both March months have been effectively the same, but at least Feb 2023 had decent sunshine hours and below average rainfall. 

Unless April provides us with a significant change (not looking likely for the start of the month, at present!) then I'm about ready to resign Spring 2024 to the bin. 

Edited March 25 by In Absence of True Seasons

[raz.org.rain]

 Weather-history pretty much sums it up. There's an article from 2013 that I can't find now, but they theorised that a warmer North Atlantic was causing those wet and cool summers. Based on that, they theorised that a growing North Atlantic cold anomaly and slower AMOC would result in hotter and drier summers across Europe.

 

It seemed like a stretch at the time but we now know it to be true. A lot of people associate a colder North Atlantic with a The Day After Tomorrow-type instant deep freeze, but we've actually seen multiple suggestions that it does the complete opposite in Europe, which has somewhat been well studied over the past decade. They actually released a study a few weeks ago. 
 

How melting Arctic ice leads to European drought and heatwaves

ARSTECHNICA.COM

---

Fresh, cold water from Greenland ice melting upsets North Atlantic currents.

 

Edited March 25 by raz.org.rain

[B87]

First week of April is looking horrific. I hope we don't get a repeat of 1998. April that year was exceptionally cold, dull and wet. 

[SunSean]

Well, after 2 days of respite with nice amounts of sunshine on Saturday & Sunday we have been plunged straight back into the demonic & laughably unrelenting pattern of absolutely shambolic miserable cack that has plagued us almost non stop since March 2023. What will it take to get us out of this utter crap? 

Also hilarious how any long range forecast that predicts rubbish is 100% accurate but anything forecasting a pattern change to something more interesting & sunnier has about 0.4% accuracy. This country's climate is as enjoyable as tripping into a wood chipper.

[Scorcher]

The law of averages (and recent history) suggests we are due a prolonged dry and hopefully sunny period given the incredible duration of this exceptionally wet and dull spell we're experiencing.

Interestingly though this month hasn't been exceptionally wet here compared to average with 45.6mm so far. It may end up above average towards the end of the month but perhaps not by much.

Sunshine is at 67 hours which is below average with the overall March average being around 100 hours. It's going to end up a dull month but probably won't break any records.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well I would rate MArch as average here. Definately an improvement on 2023. More so recently. 2023 I never saw the sun once. This time I've seen it a few times. So yea I've kinda enjoyed by the experience of the past year!! Small mercies n' all that ...

[Summer8906]

To be honest, when we factor in the likely exceedingly dull and wet final 6 days of the month, I'd consider this barely better than 2023. I suspect it will be even wetter than 2023 but perhaps slightly less dull.

We had some half-decent days in 2nd half of last week and at the weekend,  but that's about it.

A truly horrific March, with only 2023 worse in recent years, other than that we have to go back to 1981 for something comparable.

And as for the Feb/March combination, easily the worst of my life. Feb 2023 and 1981 were of course decent. Not this year.

Easter looking to rank alongside 1983 and 2018 as one of the worst on record.

Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.

This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.

Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.

 

Edited March 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 B87 Re Aug/Sep as next dry month, is this based on historical analogues or just a feeling that the weather's stuck in a rut and nothing seems to be able to move it?

If Aug or Sep is the next dry month then we'd have ended up with 13 or 14 wet months on the trot, which would surely smash all records.

Also probably a severe agricultural crisis and sky-high food prices. To avert a major crisis things have to change soon, but beginning to wonder about writing off April.

Edited March 26 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 A bit of both. Ideally I'd want a couple of months of total drought, and then the rest of the year to be dry but not exceptionally so, maybe 20-30mm per month.

CFSv2 has April and May continuing wetter than average. June to September are all average (probably on the wetter side).

Edited March 26 by B87

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 What is the record to beat Re: both wet and cloudy individually?

 B87 We want rain at night from thunderstorms once a week from May until September!

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* I'm not sure TBH, probably needs its own thread.

 

2000/01 was Sep to April, 8 months.

1960/61 was July to Feb, 8 months.

So even March being wet will be the longest run for a long time, I suspect. Will probably start a thread and if I get time look at the archives.

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 Considering 2022 was thought to be a new normal at the time, it shows no one really knows. The truth is probably just an oscillation between the two which was always the case, just warmer and wetter overall but when it gets hot it gets really hot!

What makes this wet spell we’re in now quite unique is how persistent it’s been. 1965-1969 was a very, very long wet spell but that was punctuated by drier months at times. The 1870s into the 1880s had a spell of about 8 or 9 years where every year was between about 950-1,100mm. I wonder if spells like those are now more in favour. Honestly, hard to tell. I wonder if differing factors that produce different results will end up just going back to my original point of it being varied as always with big extremes. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 I think it's far too early to be writing off April. The first week, maybe. The pattern does seem very entrenched. But as we saw in both June 2023 and September 2023, the next break in the pattern can come out of nowhere. As this winter has shown, any modelling beyond the 10-14 day period, whether using extended-range models or teleconnections, is at best an educated guess when it comes to the UK. I'm not writing off the whole month on that basis.

But equally, I'm not getting my hopes up about anything warm and settled that shows up in the modelling until it gets to the day 7 range and has a fair bit of cross-model and ensemble support. And right now, every attempt to count something down from day 14 to day 10 results in disappointment. Might as well wait until we see it within day 10 first before even thinking about taking it seriously.