Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm writing off April at the end of the first week of it all looks bad for the next few weeks after!

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather certainly hints of something more settled going into the second week of April. I suspect the first week will be wetter and likely above average temperatures, beyond that there's hints of warmer and drier but not within the reliable timeframe.

[SunSean]

Problem is, we've been saying this for ages now, not to write off a month after the 1st week of crap but unfortunately, it's like a disease. If the 1st week sucks then that usually means the whole month will be complete garbage too- Going by this never ending pattern of satanic torture.

We can always hope however!

For me, if the 1st half of April & beyond does indeed continue with this shower of crap then I'll have no option but to use up more of my money & go abroad again. It's beyond a joke at this point & all the doors out are currently locked shut & deadbolted.

Edited March 27 by SunSean

[Summer8906]

17 hours ago, B87 said:

CFSv2 has April and May continuing wetter than average. June to September are all average (probably on the wetter side).

Oh dear, hope CFS is wrong as if it's right, we can basically write off 2024 right now! (as Oct-Dec are rarely much cop). Suggests perhaps the wettest spring since 1983 followed by a typical contemporary cloudy, changeable but not overly wet summer.

What did CFS predict for summer 2023? For autumn 2023? And for winter 23/24? (And summer 2022 and winter 22/23, for that matter...)

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

8 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

I suspect the first week will be wetter and likely above average temperatures

I thought next week was supposed to be on the cool side, due to more southerly tracking lows passing over the southern UK with easterlies north of that, hence no warm air really getting in?

Wet and above average is particularly obnoxious, worse than wet and cold IMO, due to the oppressive and extreme humidity which pervades between the rain belts. The ground never dries out (exacerbating the risk of flooding), whereas a good polar or arctic interlude produces some low-DP air which can help dry the ground out a bit between the lows. Good for mosquitoes and rats, and not a lot else. Wet and cold might at least provide some nice "clean" dry interludes between the lows (for example, like it was on Monday, 2 days ago).

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Too early to completely write off the month, I suspect, though it's not going to be a classic. I think now it is odds-on that April will be the 10th consecutive wet month due to the extreme rainfall of the first week (likely we'll be close to the entire month's average by the 7th). The 2nd week looks so-so, could go either way. So I suspect we will be above the month's total by mid-month so that even if a drought sets in on the 15th (unlikely but you never know) the month will be yet another wet one.

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 Current output shows that we eventually pull a southwesterly flow with the low pressure so ending up rather mild but probably not overly warm if cloud amounts are high. If anything just looks like a similar pattern to the predominant pattern since last autumn. First week to ten days of April could be really wet. A significantly drier an average April already looking on shaky ground. Still, could be some convective material in those southwesterlies. Plus low pressure in April usually is conducive to some good storms. Reckon there could be some fun to be had there. Otherwise more rain, this time between 10-18C probably. 

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Oh dear, the worst possible weather it could be. Literally any other synoptics would be preferable, IMO at least. Dull, cold but dry NE-lies in between the lows would at least give the ground a bit of a chance to dry out (cf. March 2013). Sounds just like the first week of April 1998, before the devastating flooding.

Ground likely to be permanently damp due to the high DP and moisture content even in between the lows. Will feel very similar, I suspect, to such delights as August 2008, June 2012 or June 2016. Likely to encourage mosquitoes, several months ahead of schedule.

Also a risk the lack of cold will continue to bring the flowers out early, so that when settled weather arrives, they're come and gone.

Just glad I don't have children, I fear that if this forecast is correct the vast majority of their Easter holiday will be written off.

Even 1983 wasn't that bad. I was still at school then and remember one sunny week in April 1983 during our holidays. And April 1986, often regarded as a bad one, also featured dry-ish weather in the school Easter holidays; cold and rather cloudy but dry NE-lies were the main theme (it turned wetter when we returned to school). So perhaps the worst school Easter holiday since who knows when. 1979?

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906  Summer8906 Had my go at a little forecast. One thing you'll notice on the map is the anomalously high pressure beginning to inflate to our south. 50 years ago this pattern would have dug further south but as we've seen a lot recently, we end up on the boundary between low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure to our south. Already got the gut feeling it's a preview of another scorching summer to our south. Oh how nice it would be for normal weather again... Not any time soon!

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.

The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.

The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.

I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.

Just hope it's wrong!

Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean Yeah agree. I have zero reason to believe that April will bring anything better, until said better weather actually arrives. 

Every month being the same ol' crap has rendered me in a position of inherently assuming that the next month will also follow the same pattern (of being crap), unless I'm proved otherwise. We've had low pressure near-constantly since start of last July. Sure, it has to shift "at some point", but we've been chanting that phrase since, well, last July, lol.

It's kind of like betting again and again on a horse that keeps repeatedly losing. You're told by everyone else that the horse will win soon, it's only a matter of time. But the wise man/woman hedges his bets somewhere else until the (wet and dull) horse shows marked, consistent signs of improvement.

Edited March 27 by In Absence of True Seasons

[B87]

March now up to 73.0mm here, so already the 9th wettest March on record. I'm fairly confident this one will be worse than 2001, maybe even the first ever 100mm March?

Here's the top 10:

2001: 95.3mm
1964: 95.1mm
1979: 94.9mm
2023: 92.4mm
1981: 90.8mm
1951: 86.0mm
2018: 81.2mm
1984: 73.4mm
2016: 72.8mm
1980: 72.1mm

Edited March 27 by B87

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Interesting that cluster from 1979-1981. Key difference to now is that March 1979 and March 1980 probably had melted snow make up some of that total! 1981, 2023 and 2024 a whole lotta rain.

[Summer8906]

 B87 1947 missing, is that because it was drier or because it's not included in the record?

 

[B87]

 Summer8906 It isn't in the record.

[Summer8906]

 B87 Ah ok thanks, as 1947 is often quoted as the most extreme wet March. At least it followed a phenomenally interesting Feb and was followed by a phenomenal summer!

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 1947 truly the year where all the seasons were turned up to 200%. Probably the most extreme year the UK has ever seen. It had extreme cold, extreme heat, extreme rainfall and flooding, extreme drought, extreme sunshine amounts, extreme sunshine defecits; truly a year of the ultimate extreme and probably a year we don't ever see the likes of again unless blocking becomes the norm later the century and even then, who's to say the winter would pack as much an oomf. Funny quirk how 1947 was the ultimate seasonal year and 1974 (the numbers flipped around) was the total opposite with the year being anti-seasonal. Using that logic, 2032 one for the history books? 

[Sun Chaser]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

What did CFS predict for summer 2023? For autumn 2023? And for winter 23/24? (And summer 2022 and winter 22/23, for that matter...)

I remember the CFS predicting February 2023 to be a cyclonic mess with a huge LP anomaly smack bang over the UK, and July 2023 to be a cracking month with a strong HP anomaly over the east of the UK. Not sure about what it predicted for 2022 but maybe take it with a pinch of salt!

[richie3846]

 B87 It looks like there could be a lot of rain for the South East later on Sunday. 100mm is more than possible imo, though it's probably not as awful as last March overall, because that was stormy if memory serves me, wet, and even duller than this one. 

I'm not sure how this affects farmers, but I can't imagine it's easy to get onto the land in a tractor when the ground is still bogged up.

Edited March 27 by richie3846

[B87]

The entirety of April looks to be a write off on the 30day forecast. Wetter than average in every week for the next 6 weeks.

When are we going to start getting sustained dry and sunny temps of 15-20c? Having lush green grass in the summer would be wrong.

Edited March 27 by B87

[Downburst]

 richie3846 They can't get the cattle out, perhaps some calves or one year olds in some locations where ground won't be damaged, so have to use what's left of last years silage or buy some. Then think of last years mid to late summer wet weather. They can't spread slurry on this years first cut or apply fertilizer yet. There are a lot of issues, but in general sileage will be cut later that's for sure. I think these are the ongoing trials and tribulations of farming though, the weather on top of everything else. 

[ANYWEATHER]

 Sun Chaser CFS= Crappy Forecasting System.

[Arctic Hare]

45 minutes ago, B87 said:

When are we going to start getting sustained dry and sunny temps of 15-20c?

January...

[B87]

 Arctic Hare That's not happening unless we move to NZ.

[B87]

 ANYWEATHER Oh, it'll be 100% accurate when it's forecasting this rubbish to continue.