When do you predict the first 20°C and 25°C of 2024 will be?

[summer blizzard]

I suspect that mid-April to mid-May will be our most settled period (followed by the second half of June before summer is done).

20C - 25th April

25C - 5th May

30C and 90F - 25th June.

 

[Scorcher]

Looks like the first 20C is a long way off for the UK going by the model output.

A big shame really as parts of the near continent have been well in excess of 20C this weekend.

Several places in Germany reached 25C yesterday.

With these ubiquitous lows near our shores unfortunately we will probably continue to miss out on the warmth while Europe benefits from the setup.

[sunny_vale]

I might stick my neck out and say first 20c this weekend 6th April, if the sun stays out long enough on Saturday 

[damianslaw]

 sunny_vale London forecast 18 on Saturday, somewhere might get close to 20 degrees, but the warmth could easily be slightly further east and just miss the UK shore, the low pressure to the west is forecast to be deep and could encroach further east, the momentum is eastward rather than going north. 

Edited April 1 by damianslaw

[Freeze]

20c on 11th April, 25c on 5th May.

[sunny_vale]

 damianslaw it’s certainly on a knife edge! Either way wouldn’t be what you’d necessarily want out of the first 20c of the year with how strong those winds would be 

[Paul]

20c a possibility this weekend..

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm going with

20C on April 15th

25C May 15th

30C on June 15th

 

The question I have is, has a plume ever delivered two of these milestone temperatures in the same event? So not necessarily on the same day, but within the same weather system or plume?

Edited April 4 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Relativistic]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see 2018 probably did in mid-April

[B87]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see 4th May 2006 was the first 20c day of that spring, but ended up reaching 27c.

[raz.org.rain]

On 07/03/2024 at 23:10, raz.org.rain said:

 

20°c I think could potentially be reached at the end of March or the beginning of April, with 25°c being reached at the end of April.

 

Seems I was pretty close with this guess, and I reckon we could still see 25°c before the end of April. First 30°c will be early or mid May I reckon.

[WYorksWeather]

Looks like this year will be bang average for first 20C if we do indeed get there on Saturday. Still quite a bit of model disagreement.

[raz.org.rain]

There we go

 

[MattStoke]

20°C probably 6th April in somewhere like Santon Downham, I reckon.

[Metwatch]

Only just got signal (Still in the Lake District with no signal since Friday night but back in town currently) looks like @rwtwm was closest with the April 4 the guess.

Fairly happy with my April 10th punt as well. Onto the first 25°C now!

[Summer8906]

Still May for 25C as the tendency seems to be towards more settled but cooler weather from mid-month. Wouldn't be surprised if relatively cool uppers get locked in for a couple of weeks with winds from some northerly point and a large Atlantic high. Not saying it'll be cold but I suspect it'll be somewhat-above-average at best, warmest days in the high teens.

So I'll stick with May 10th for 25C.

Edited April 7 by Summer8906

[rwtwm]

 Metwatch

I should have gone to the express with that forecast, as it was much better than their usual nonsense!

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Just looking back at this from nine days ago - this prediction is looking good now!

[WYorksWeather]

It looks almost certain now that the first 25C will have to wait until May. A couple of outlier runs showing a warmup right at the very end of April, but I think it would need a few days to build, and in any case those are outliers not the most likely outcome.

 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 WYorksWeather I m saying June ...

[raz.org.rain]

It wouldn't surprise me if we see our first 25°c and our first 30°c in May.

[hillbilly]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see In March 1965 25 degrees was recorded on the 29th March,this i believe is the outright March maximum recorded at Whitby which was amazingly the hottest day in Whitby for the whole year.Just as amazing is that on the 3rd day of that month Corwen in Wales recorded  -21.7 deg,the coldest day of the year for the whole country,anamazingly cold temperature for March,only 2 winters have recorded lower in almost 30 years!

[LetItSnow!]

25C will very likely be seen in May. I think the only Mays this century to fail it are 2013 and 2015. Though you never know. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! 2019 and 2021 failed here as well.

Might be June at this rate.

Edited April 17 by B87

[reef]

The median date here for the first 20C is 2nd May and the first 25C is almost exclusively June (19 times) or July/August (20 times). Only 4 years have seen 25C before 1st June.

1993 never reached 25C.