When do you predict the first 20°C and 25°C of 2024 will be?

[Metwatch]

I think it's now time to start predicting when these temperatures will first happen this spring, surely it won't be as late as last year. So when do you predict they will happen?

 

Some trivia:

Graph of first 20C: (average is early April)

Years to add onto to that:

2021: 29th March

2022: 19th March

2023: April 17th

 

Graph of first 25C: (average is around early May)

Years to add:

2022: May 17th

2023: May 30th

Some of the latest first 25C:

1987 28th June, 1986 15th June, 1983 07th June.

The earliest 25C is 29th March, 1968.

 

For Coventry earliest 20C is 17th March 1990, latest is 4th June 2015. average date for first 20C is 25-28th April. Earliest 25C is 3rd April in 1946.

 

Edited March 7 by Metwatch

[SunSean]

With that lovely SSW I am going to guess the first 20c will be June 10th & the first 25c July 18th 

In all honesty though, I have a feeling both 20c & 25c may be reached in April this year since it's been a while since we got a 25c in April (2020) although we've only had 9 25c days in April since 2006 (Heathrow). Always had a feeling April 2024 would be a decent one, it just has a ring to it! Knowing my luck, the ring will be for all the wrong reasons haha.

[raz.org.rain]

20°c I think could potentially be reached at the end of March or the beginning of April, with 25°c being reached at the end of April.

[WYorksWeather]

I'm going to go for one random 20C day in late March. To pick a random date, let's say the 23rd.

I'll then go for the first 25C around mid April, again, somewhat randomly, the 17th.

Bonus question - first 30C will be right at the end of May, say the 29th.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain Your optomistic! Although you are north so if the weather keeps on as it is then I think your game on!

[B87]

20c: 30th March

25c: 29th April

30c: 15th June

32c: 18th July

35c: 5th August

Hottest day: 36c on 8th August

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather that would make sense, a sort of polar opposite of spring 2023. We often get polar opposite seasons like that.

@CryoraptorA303 you still going for a May heatwave? We could very easily see +30°c in May with the right synoptics.

. *Stormforce~beka* I'm mostly assuming that old chestnut of nature balancing out comes true and we see the opposite of what happened in spring 2023!

[cheeky_monkey]

here the first 20c/25c are close together ..on average the first 20c is around 20-25th April first 25c is 1-5th May.

[Barry Reynolds]

20° on 27th March, 25° on 30th April

[Frigid]

20C - 14th April

25C - 22nd May 

Summer predictions: 

30C - 7th July

I don't think we'll reach 35C, going for a max of 33.7C.

[Penguin16]

20c - 24th march

25c - 26th april

[CryoraptorA303]

I'm going to say the first 20°C day will be March 28th, at a more central-western location, either Wellesbourne or Pershore.

The first 25°C will almost certainly be in April this year, I say we will see a record warm 4/20 with 27.3°C at Wisley.

A May heatwave in some form or another is a guarentee for this year, 100% chance of happening. With climate change and the strong El Nino shoving the planet into a deepfrier, I think there is a very good chance of seeing an early 30°C this year. I'm going with 30.9°C at Kew Gardens on the 29th. No record breaks because most spring records are La Nina exclusives.

After that is hard to say but the annual maximum will be in either August or September (again) this year. June will probably see 30°C again, July will likely see 33-34°C and August will be 36+°C. If we have the August maximum then there's two scenarios for me: either we have a 1995-style heatwave in which case we see 37.9°C at Kew Gardens on the 1st, or we have a more 2003-style heatwave. In the latter we have an all-time record break and we see 41.7°C at Faversham on the 10th.

If we have the first consecutive September maximum since 1891, then it'll be 35.9°C on the 13th at East Malling. I know that'd ruin Gravesend's 2016 record but it's Friday the 13th. You can't tell me something creepy won't happen on that day.

While many are doubtful because of the La Nina threat, the way I see it, if anything a rapid La Nina will disrupt the ongoing wet spell. I'm also not seeing anything that is suggesting a particularly mild summer in the analogues to be honest. It's very easy to believe this summer will be poor after the last 12 months we've had, but 2023 is a one off. After 2022 everyone and their mother was predicting that 2023 would be hot-as, because we'd just had such an anomalously hot year that it seemed easy to believe a July like 2023 wasn't really possible anymore.

There is no year since 1990 that broke a winter record and didn't see a new all-time record in the summer. Keep that in mind.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

First 20 Celsius - 27th March.

First 25 Celsius - 20th May.

First 30 Celsius - 10th June.

[mountain shadow]

First 20 - 25th March

First 25 - 26th April

First 30 - 31 May

[Metwatch]

Good to see quite a few predictions. Going in myself:

First 20C: April 10th

First 25C: May 3rd

First 30C: Sometime around the end of May but will probably start a separate thread for that, soon after 25C is reached.

 

Some more random facts about 25C locally:

Coventry didn't reach 25C during the years of 1931 and 1974. The highest readings country wide were:

28.3C for 1931

28.0C for 1974

Latest 25C here is 9th October during last year, just over a week before the latest 25C on record for the UK which was on the 18th, in 1997.

Edited March 10 by Metwatch

[WYorksWeather]

 Metwatch Better not say that about starting a new thread, it'll end up being one of those years where we reach 25C and 30C in the same spell of weather .

[SummerShower]

I'll punt for quite a Late 20C, April 28th, due to the current SSW.

Soon after though, on May 5th (the bank Holiday sunday) will see 25C.  I feel we could get a 1992 style may and see 30C in the latter stages.  Some classic Late may thunderstorms as well, but I digress

[baddie]

It wont reach 20c or 25c at all this year . Mild, wet winter. Mild, wet spring. Cold, wet summer. It will reach 20c for the first time this year on Christmas Day and that will be nothing but drizzly rain. Why????? Because of sods law

Being realistic. Im thinking April 13th for the first 20c, then May 4th for the first 25c, followed by a record early-May Bank Holiday with our first 30c seen on May 6th. We may see something warm-ish at the end of March

Edited March 15 by baddie

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yea I suspect we are realistically going straight from Autumn into Summer as they are the only 2 seasons we have

[rwtwm]

The models have been hinting at more suppressed temps towards the end of the month. Once we hit April though, with the strength of the sun and the warmth of the Atlantic, I'd expect the first SW waft of the month to push us over 20c. 

Beyond that it's tea leaves really. But I have a feeling we might struggle for Maxima until a little later in the summer. 

20c - 4th April

25c - 18th June

[Summer8906]

20C I'd say around mid-April, let's say the 13th.

25C perhaps around the 10th May.

30C - 16th July (see below)

I also wonder whether the absolutely sodden ground will knock out the chance of really high temps for a few months.

Edited March 15 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 SummerShower Strangely my gut feeling for May is warm and thundery, a lot of sunny weather but different in character to last year. Not the weeks of sun we had in late May, early June but instead a May with a 10-day hot spell, and quite a lot of thundery activity. Maybe similarities to 1998. A good number of days in the 25-28 range but none above 30.

Gut feeling for April is for something relatively cool. Not sure why, perhaps because prolonged mild and wet in late winter, early spring often leads to a cool April. Or perhaps a hopecast, knowing that cool weather will prevent spring flowering ending too early. Quite northwesterly with a lot of days of scattered showers but relatively little frontal rain (it's got to stop at some point, surely?) and marginally drier than average at 90%, breaking the 9-month run of wet months. Very slightly below the 61-90 average (0.1 below). Absolute max 22-23C in a brief warm spell. The long run of wet months and long run of warm months has to end soon, surely - and April along with the summer months seem to be the most pre-disposed to being occasionally cool.

I have a feeling June might be wet this year, and slightly cool relative to 61-90. July, dry and cloudy (day maxima average and night minima much above), and August, a typical post-2007 changeable August and the third (of three) slightly cool month of the year. This is all really guesswork and a feeling that things will be "different" to last year while retaining the general theme of contemporary summers.

Consequently I'm going for a late 30C, of July 16th. But 35C two days later, then a non-thundery cold front and 19C the day after...

Edited March 15 by Summer8906

[Metwatch]

A very good chance now that 20°C won't be seen this month as mild air is on its way out in the next 24 hours, and not much recovery expected for the next 7-10 days.

Charlwood in Surrey reached 18.8°C yesterday, which is highest of the year for England. Scotland still had the 19.9°C back in January. 

All the 20°C entries:

[stewfox]

April 12th May 16th

[Met.]

May as well roll a die. Anyway, let's say 20°C - 27th April. 25°C, 1st May.

Edited March 22 by Met.