Earliest last frost

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I have a friend asking me if we are likely to see any snow or frosts on Coventry for the remainder of Spring. (He's a beekeeper)

I replied it's unlikely we will see snow now, but can't rule out another frost.

My question to the group is, how rare is it to not see any further frosts this early in Spring? (in the Midlands region especially)

Edited March 9 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Relativistic]

I would guess that that's never happened.

Am sure someone will have some stats on this.

Edited March 9 by Relativistic

[I remember Atlantic 252]

usually April, as it's known for cold clear nights and sunny days

[Cheshire Freeze]

 I remember Atlantic 252 April is probably my absolute favourite month weatherwise. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I would go mid April 

[Methuselah]

With a lot of luck, we've had it already.

[Metwatch]

4 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I replied it's unlikely we will see snow now, but can't rule out another frost.

That would be the short answer I'd give as well.

A longer one is using recent examples, but frosts can persist well into spring. April 2021 for us had more air frosts than the majority of winter months of modern times. Mid May 2020 is quite forgetten about but had some very late season frosts on the mornings of 12th and 14th in the adjacent countryside, down to -1.5C one of them. I think Coventry went down to around 0.5C those 2 mornings, but shows it was sort of notable in today's climate within that exceptional spring month for dryness and sunshine.

Looking through Steve Jackson's past posts on Twitter (manages the Met Office station in Coventry, lots of historic data), the latest air frost on record is 31st May back in 1975 but I doubt a repeat of that will happen any time soon. Average date of the last air frost of the season is the 14th April.

Snow can occur well into April, but usually won't settle much if at all. April 2016 and 2021 are some examples of recent. Something like a repeat of late April 1981 I also think is not possible anymore here.

Edited March 9 by Metwatch

[hillbilly]

There are actually only 10 days of the year in July and August which have never recorded a night time frost but to answer your question your area has recorded 6 night frosts in May in the last 10 years with each of those years recording only one frost.[Sutton bonnington data,that is the nearest i could find]

Edited March 9 by hillbilly

[LetItSnow!]

I know 2016 I recorded a frost as late as May 1st. May 2020 I wasn't recording at that time but the northerly mid-month definitely did it in places I think. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for all of your replies. I remember the May 2020 frosts. I was posting gardeners beware posts to my Facebook and my wife was bringing in pot plants back into the kitchen!

In short, to get no further frosts would amaze most on here then. I am hoping not, as it would signal a prolonged period of unsettled weather, with cloud, wind and rain aplenty and a distinct shortage of clear night skies.

Edited March 9 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Frigid]

 LetItSnow! Yes, May 2020 was an exceptional month for the reason it had a potent cold spell and also a very warm spell, though I think 2012 is still on top for that exceptional heatwave in the final 10 days. The mid month northerly brought temps down to -3.5C here, which is quite astonishing for how late in the year it was. Keep in mind Summer was only 2/3 weeks away. 

May frosts actually aren't as rare as I first thought, especially up north. Other May's where I've witnessed frosts in the last 10 years are 2015, 2018 (surprisingly), 2019 and 2021, though 2020 was by far the latest. 

[LetItSnow!]

 Frigid The northerly in May 2020 would have been extra sharp since the ground was so dry. May 2020 was interesting for temperatures as it was very much a see-saw in the first half. The month began cool and showery (though mostly bone dry down here) and stayed cool until high pressure slipped south-eastwards which gave a short warm spell into the mid-twenties around the 7th-10th before the winds abruptly switched north (unusually cold winds too as the -10C line scraped the far north of Scotland on the 11th). It remained cool mid-month until the high pressure eventually repositioned itself in a warmer phase and the second-half was mostly warm/very warm. But up until the first half the temperature averaged rather close to normal.

[Terminal Moraine]

In the 47 years I've been recording at this site the average date for the last frost in spring is April 13th. The earliest last frost was February 12th in 2014 but that was in a league of its own as there have been only 7 other years with a last frost in March.

1980 on March 23rd, 1987 on March 29th, 1993 on March 27th, 2004 on March 13th, 2009 on March 29th, 2011 on March 8th and 2015 on March 26th.

It should be borne in mind that living high on the east facing slopes of a moor this area is not prone to early or late frosts as in those situations where the valleys experience frosts due to nocturnal radiation all the cold air drains away to lower ground leaving it several degrees warmer here.

[MP-R]

That change around in May 2020 was quite something. 25°C on the 09th but then that sharp drop during the 10th and the mornings of the 12th and 13th were only just above freezing here.

The opening days of May 2021 and also the first weekend of May 2019 brought temperatures very close to air frost territory here.

[marky810]

22nd June 2021 dawned frosty....

UK Observes Coldest June Night In 9 Years After Summer Solstice Is Colder Than Winter! : MarkVoganWeather.com

WWW.MARKVOGANWEATHER.COM

 

[damianslaw]

In an average year, mid May cut off for frost, but some years May brings little, others early June.

[hillbilly]

Location has a big part to play  when it comes to Airfrosts but the majority of stations countrywide probably register only one airfrost in May every odd year at best but locations such as Shawbury or Breamar register May frosts most years ,Breamar having 2-3 most of the time.However if you add very cold springs to the equation such as 1996 and 1979 that figure jumps to 11 airfrosts for 1979 at Braemar and 9 for Shawbury in 1996.

[raz.org.rain]

I think we'd usually see some amount of overnight frost during March if we get an early warm spell. It would be sunny and warm by day, but the clear skies at night would give some amount of frost.