Predict the hottest day of 2024 (UK) Competition

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 CoventryWeather I think, like the CET competition, if you are going to alter your prediction, you must declare you wish to change your prediction in your subsequent amendment post

 Best to stick to your original guess if you can, but I am going to limit any changes to one time, as it makes collation after May 11, much easier.

These stats show me that a highest temperature below 33C unlikely imo.. probably only 1 in 10 years going forward.

Edited March 12 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[*Stormforce~beka*]

19.5c ...

[CryoraptorA303]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Which one of mine is being counted? Because I honestly can't decide which one I would like to put the highest bet on right now.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 CryoraptorA303 ino worries, sometime before May 11 just write 

Id like to choose this one from my three I mentioned originally 

[HammerJack]

39.8

[markyo]

9 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

19.5c ...

Utopia! 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 markyo Svalbard would be a good location for a guess of 19.5C

Record high for July in that location 23C.

Edited March 13 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Wynn D Woo]

19 hours ago, Wynn D Woo said:

 BlueSkies_do_I_see  Put me down for a 36.2C but would not be surprised if we get higher.

Feels like we only need a short burst of heat to break records these days rather than weeks of dry sunny weather...

As we are adding a date too now - make that prediction as 14th July

[Weather Enthusiast91]

37.2 Celsius at some point in July.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What was the hottest day last year?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 *Stormforce~beka*  33.5C in  Brogdale (Kent), 10 September

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Oh yes I remember now it wasn't in summer. What was the highest IN summer?

[markyo]

9 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

Svalbard would be a good location for a guess of 19.5C

Record high for July in that location 23C.

I can only hope and pray i suppose! Would be my perfect Summer!

Edited March 13 by markyo

[Jason T]

Hmmm interesting. I'm going for June 27th to reach 38.7c for the home counties. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 *Stormforce~beka* I can't remember Beka to be honest, but I am sure someone has the stats on here.

Come to think of it 19.5 C has already been surpassed this year 

In January with 19.9C!

A month of contrasts for January’s weather | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

January 2024 brought a month of contrasts to the UK weather, with three named storms, a significant spell of cold, wintry...

 

Edited March 13 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[SollyOlly]

3rd August, 36.8c. And I'll hopefully be somewhere air-conditioned!  

[Arctic Hare]

Hmm, I'm caught in two minds here. On the one hand we keep getting warm records or near-records and the current sea temperatures are pretty much off the charts. On the other hand it just keeps raining and we'd need an actual dry spell to get up to 2022 values. So I'll split the difference a bit, but still keep things on the high end:

37.7 °C on 1st August. Not *quite* hitting 100 °F but still very hot. I would *prefer* we don't reach that tbh!

I know we don't have to guess the place, but for the sake of it, St James's Park in London.

Edited March 13 by Arctic Hare

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Oh yes I forgot about January!!

[East Lancs Rain]

To be honest, with how the weather has been over the last few months and the diabolical weather we have at the moment, I can’t imagine us even getting any warm and sunny weather ever again, let alone hot weather.

 

I’ll guess it will probably reach about 37°C at Heathrow in a one day wonder heat spike in late July, the rest of the summer will be cool, wet and cloudy.

[Alderc 2.0]

Probably somewhere around 36C west London up towards Cambridge.

[Earthshine]

33C

[MP-R]

35.7°C for me… purely as it’s the average of the last ten years!

[cheshire snow]

Another 40c to be breached

So 40.6c July 28th

[In Absence of True Seasons]

37c. Most likely in July or August. 

 

[CryoraptorA303]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see After careful consideration, I've decided to go with 37.9°C at Kew Gardens on August 1st. I don't think we're going to see an all-time record this year, though now that I've said that the rest of the year will start clustering with the 2003-2019-2022 club

 Jason T Oh come on, if we're going to reach 38.7°C this year it has to be at Cambridge on July 25th to mark the fifth anniversary of the 2019 heatwave! We are seriously overdue a massive June heatwave though, although when it happens I'd at least like it to be useful and fill the 39°C gap instead of just missing out.

 *Stormforce~beka* 32.2°C at Chertsey on June 10th and Coningsby on June 25th. July 7th managed 30.2°C at Chertsey and August didn't reach 30°C, with 28.4°C at Wellesbourne on the 10th being the highest temp of the month.

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Makes you wonder what Gravesend could've seen. Judging from its history, on both the 9th and the 10th it could've recorded >34°C. Gravesend not only saw more extreme temps than Faversham (although Mad Favs gets all the fame for the one time it surpassed Gravesend, August 10th 2003), the two stations acted as verification for each other. Now, Faversham's temps often look out of place with other stations and it fuels the "oh Faversham is inaccurate because it's out of line with other stations" nonsense.

As you can see, Faversham is over a degree above the next highest temp, and 1.2°C above East Malling.

It looks even more out of place on the map, although this is partly made worse by 33.5°C being rounded up to 34.

If however you were to insert Gravesend with a similar temp, it looks a lot less weird and less suspect to people with no knowledge of the local geography and why Faversham gets so hot.