Predict the hottest day of 2024 (UK) Competition

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 

What temperature do you think the hottest day of the year will reach this year? 

My guess is 37.4C

Here are some stats that I researched earlier:

Between 1957-2014 the temperature has exceeded 35C on 6 occasions
Since 2014 the temperature has exceeded 35C 6 more times.  (Avg 36C)

Here are the hottest days of the year since 1875.  I have added the word Yes to years that exceeded 35.0C.

Year High (C)  Reached above 35C?

1875 30.1          

1876 35          

1877 29.7          

1878 33.9          

1879 26.8          

1880 30.7          

1881 35          

1882 29.2          

1883 28.7          

1884 34.1          

1885 33.3          

1886 31.7          

1887 31.7          

1888 31.1          

1889 30.3          

1890 28.3          

1891 30          

1892 29.4          

1893 34.7          

1894 30.6          

1895 30.6          

1896 31.2          

1897 32.2          

1898 33.4          

1899 32.4          

1900 35.1          Yes

1901 33.3          

1902 31.9          

1903 31.1          

1904 32.2          

1905 30          

1906 35.6          Yes

1907 30          

1908 32.8          

1909 33.3          

1910 28.9          

1911 36.7          Yes

1912 32.8          

1913 29.4          

1914 32.2          

1915 32.2          

1916 30          

1917 33.9          

1918 33.9          

1919 32.2          

1920 27.8          

1921 34.4          

1922 32.8          

1923 35.6          Yes

1924 32.2          

1925 33.3          

1926 32.2          

1927 29.4          

1928 32.8          

1929 32.2          

1930 34.4          

1931 28.3          

1932 36.1          Yes

1933 34.4          

1934 33.3          

1935 33.3          

1936 31.7          

1937 33.3          

1938 30.6          

1939 32.2          

1940 32.8          

1941 34.3          

1942 33.9          

1943 33.9          

1944 32.8          

1945 32.2          

1946 30.6          

1947 34.4          

1948 35          

1949 33.3          

1950 33.3          

1951 30          

1952 33.9          

1953 33.9          

1954 30.6          

1955 32.8          

1956 30          

1957 35.6          Yes

1958 29.4          

1959 34.4          

1960 30.6          

1961 33.9          

1962 27.8          

1963 28.9          

1964 32.8          

1965 29.4          

1966 28.9          

1967 30.2          

1968 33.3          

1969 32.8          

1970 32.2          

1971 30.3          

1972 29.4          

1973 32.1          

1974 28          

1975 34.2          

1976 35.9          Yes

1977 30          

1978 28.8          

1979 30.4          

1980 29.4          

1981 29.5          

1982 30.7          

1983 33          

1984 31.9          

1985 30.1          

1986 32          

1987 30.2          

1988 30.2          

1989 34.4          

1990 37.1          Yes

1991 32.1          

1992 30.3          

1993 29.7          

1994 33.4          

1995 35.2          Yes

1996 33.2          

1997 33.1          

1998 32.2          

1999 32.7          

2000 32.6          

2001 32.2          

2002 32.6          

2003 38.5          Yes

2004 31.5          

2005 32.6          

2006 36.5          Yes

2007 30.1          

2008 30.2          

2009 31.8          

2010 31.7          

2011 33.1          

2012 32.4          

2013 34.1          

2014 32.3          

2015 36.7          Yes

2016 35.2          Yes

2017 34.5          

2018 35.6          Yes

2019 38.7          Yes

2020 37.8          Yes

2021 32.2          

2022 40.3          Yes

2023 33.5         

Source: 

Hottest day of each year from 1900

TREVORHARLEY.COM

 

[Wynn D Woo]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see  Put me down for a 36.2C but would not be surprised if we get higher.

Feels like we only need a short burst of heat to break records these days rather than weeks of dry sunny weather...

[raz.org.rain]

I'm going for either 38° or 39°.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I was thinking about turning this into an official competition. All guesses would have to be within a tenth of a degree. 

Realistically the warmest day would be somewhere between 28.0C and 41.0C so that's 130 different answers.

It would be great if I could think of a way to make it possible that only one person can claim each individual temperature by embedding some fancy spreadsheet, but that's beyond my skill level!

But in short can you make your guesses to the tenth of a degree, e.g. 38.1C instead of 38C

Edited March 12 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[MattStoke]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Highest temperature and date of highest temperature.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Yes Matt, that would make every guess more unique. Feel free to add a date too to your prediction. If you can get date and temperature correct I will be seriously impressed!

[sundog]

39.1c  July 27th

[lassie23]

Thursday

[Methuselah]

 lassie23 25th of July. . . 38.3C. 

[78/79]

25th of December if this winter is anything to go by !!

[Wade]

Since the last three June's have been dry and warm, I think this time it will be cool/cold and wet so therefore I think the mercury will reach it's highest in either July or August at around 38C. Of course this doesn't discount April, May or September from delivering a hot spell with impressive temps

[Scuba steve]

2500 c on 13 august if Putin has anything to do with it

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

t would be great if I could think of a way to make it possible that only one person can claim each individual temperature by embedding some fancy spreadsheet, but that's beyond my skill level!

But in short can you make your guesses to the tenth of a degree, e.g. 38.1C instead of 38C

@CryoraptorA303 perfect thread for you!

[cheeky_monkey]

32.6c just because 

[CryoraptorA303]

My predictions are either:

37.9°C at Kew Gardens on August 1st

41.7°C at Faversham on August 10th

or 35.9°C at East Malling on September 13th

...Depending on the scenario we get. I don't see anything less hot than one of these three happening to be honest. So far 1995 has come up as a close relative for both February and March (so far) now, 2003 was a close relative in January and now 1895 has joined the club being March 2024's closest relative so far, so any of these three can happen at this point.

Side note, spring relatives are the best predictor of the rest of the year. 1926 was a close relative of all three spring months of 2023 and 1940 was a very close relative of May. 1995 continuing to come up into March is a very strong statement.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm going to declare the winner based on their first temperature declared that is to one decimal place. 

In the event of a temperature tie, the winner will be the closest date to the actual recorded hottest day.

Edited March 12 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[B87]

37.0c at Heathrow and Kew Gardens on 8th August.

Edited March 12 by B87

[WYorksWeather]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see I would say probably better to have a closing date for the competition, something like two weeks before summer starts maybe, so people can't look at any model output in the medium range and just spot e.g. a massive heatwave in early June were it to happen. Of course you're running it, so it's up to you in the end!

I'm going to say that this summer will be on the hot side overall compared to recent averages. Given modern averages of around 35C for the annual max, I'm going to go on the hot side but a way short of record-breaking with 38.4C, and for the date I'll go backloaded but not as late as last year and say 6th August. 

[Liquid]

Im saying 4th August, top temps in home counties with max of 40.1 ºc

[Freeze]

I will go with 35.5c Heathrow on 20th July.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Good call  WYorksWeather

Ok competition closing date is May 11. That's exactly 2 months from now. Plenty of time to post your predictions.

I am not an admin so I cannot alter my initial post. But if an admin wants to, they are welcome to alter things around. I also wish I had added the dates the records were set.

I'm no IT expert (I spend my working life mainly in Word and Excel). So I copied the data from the source site I declared at the end of my initial post, into Word.  Then converted to a table with columns, with space the separator.

Then copied this table into Excel.

I created columns between the data and inserted spaces into these blank columns.

Then when I pasted into the forum, it kept the spaces to make it more legible.

I'll add a date to my original temp prediction

37.4C. July 25th

Edited March 12 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[James1979]

39.1c cambridge, 27th July.

[raz.org.rain]

I think @BruenSryan runs a similar thing on Twitter too, should be fun to see what ranges we get between here and there.

[Frigid]

7 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

2015 36.7          Yes

2016 35.2          Yes

2017 34.5          

2018 35.6          Yes

2019 38.7          Yes

2020 37.8          Yes

2021 32.2          

2022 40.3          Yes

2023 33.5         

Wow 2015 really set a trend here didn't it. 2021 and 23 the only normal years.

As for my prediction, I put down 33.8C in a previous thread. But looking at the data, I'm more inclined to go higher. Going for 36.3C, 14th July. 

[CoventryWeather]

36.8, somewhere near Cambridge on 21st July. 

I'm not going any higher unless we get a significant dry spell. 

For reference @BlueSkies_do_I_see, can we add further temps and dates/edits as time goes on? 

Edited March 12 by CoventryWeather
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