Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[I remember Atlantic 252]

51 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think that winter is over and the next cold spell will be in the spring.

post I've agreed with the most on here, enough of the hopecasting MJO, NAO cold forecasts

[Don]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

post I've agreed with the most on here, enough of the hopecasting MJO, NAO cold forecasts

I think at this rate we could be hard pushed to even see a cold spell in spring!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Don said:

I think at this rate we could be hard pushed to even see a cold spell in spring!

we will, snow though doubt it, just for Scotland and hills, PV weakens, Atlantic slows down, cold spells March and April practically guaranteed

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

we will, snow though doubt it, just for Scotland and hills, PV weakens, Atlantic slows down, cold spells March and April practically guaranteed

There are no guarantees.  Cold Marches and especially Aprils have not exactly been a plentiful in the last 30 years 

 

[karyo]

Don't worry guys, the Met Office update will flip to something colder again before the winter is over. 

Whether the update will be followed by a cold spell is another matter of course...

[damianslaw]

57 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There are no guarantees.  Cold Marches and especially Aprils have not exactly been a plentiful in the last 30 years 

 

March through to June typically brings highest amount of northerly and easterly airstreams as the PV relents, its the norm. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 28 Jan to Tuesday 6 Feb

Cloud and outbreaks of rain gradually move southwards across the UK during Sunday, lying across central areas before moving back north during Monday. Some heavy rain is possible at times, particularly across hills in the west. Through the remainder of the period, changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across north-western areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 7 Feb to Wednesday 21 Feb

Through the middle of February, changeable conditions are most likely with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest. It is likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[johncam]

Not the best update,  any cold if any getting pushed further and further back 

[Don]

@johncam Yep, a real sense of deja vu! 

[feb1991blizzard]

@johncam @Don

Yesterday was obviously a holding forecast (although surprised it only lasted a day), they knew the chance of cold arriving first half of month was receding, but probably didn't want to call mild until 21st and wait too long to change back again as EC46 (and guessing GLOSEA as well now i've seen this) still showing genuine HLB late feb, could also be in relation to MJO forecasts among other tropical pacific activity.

[karyo]

Basically the mild spell is getting upgraded in duration every day! If you go back 10 days or so, they were saying that the weather would be dominated by high pressure and cold temperatures. Any mild unsettled spells were going to be brief and mainly in the south. Then they went for a change to less cold/milder weather until the end of January before the cold high re-establishes itself with winds from the north and east. Then in recent days, the mild unsettled weather got extended by approximately one more week... and in today's update until there is a further extension until the middle of February at the very least! Yes, we are chasing a rainbow!

[Don]

@karyo I believe it was similar in December 2022, when some were saying the mild spell in the run up to Christmas would likely be brief, with cold soon returning.  In reality, it stayed mild right through to mid January.

[Bricriu]

The cold pushed back again to late February now. The mild is hardly ever pushed back!

The UKMO will still be talking about cold from North East  by the Summer at this rate. Roger J Smith did say February,  from data he analysed , would be mostly mild. It now appears to be turning out that way - well at least  for the first half of it to be offensively mild for the time of year. 

Edited January 23 by Bricriu

[Don]

@Bricriu Roger J Smith also said in the January CET thread that his analysis of Januaries ending mild, often sees a return to cold mid February.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder mid-February

Wednesday 24 January to – Sunday 28 January

Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February

Drier, with temperatures mostly above average

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead

In the next forecast update, we will see if the models have any stronger indication of a colder turn by mid-February, and we will take a look at the prospects for the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 29 Jan to Wednesday 7 Feb

Cloud and outbreaks of rain gradually move northwards across the UK during Monday, heaviest in some western and northern areas with some southern parts dry. Through the remainder of the period, changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across northwestern areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 8 Feb to Thursday 22 Feb

Through the middle of February, changeable conditions are most likely with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest. It is likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

  @karyo They change their minds so much and when they do put their necks out and make a slightly longer-range prediction it usually goes t its up, especially if they predict cold and snow.

  @Summer Sun they are pushing back the cold and snow, it will be February 2025 next

[karyo]

  @lassie23

Yes, they usually give the kiss of death to any cold spell!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 30 Jan to Thursday 8 Feb

Cloud and outbreaks of rain gradually move northwards across the UK, favouring the west with heaviest rain in some far western and northern areas whilst some southern parts dry with sunnier spells. Through the remainder of the period, changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across north-western areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[damianslaw]

I keep thinking back to Feb 05, which brought a cold end with some snow, this continued well into March.

Other cold ends to winter and starts to spring include 2001, 2004, 2006, 2013, 2018.

Northerlies and easterlies have a habit of arriving latter part of Feb just when attention turns to spring and making large appearances in spring. 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 9 Feb - Friday 23 Feb

Through the middle of February, changeable conditions are most likely with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest. It is likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Methuselah]

Ah, an increasing chance of some cold and snow. That'll be from 0% to 10% then, I guess!  

[Penguin16]

At this stage the Met office would be better off scrapping the monthly outlook as it’s as accurate as horoscopes.