Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Monday 5 Feb - Wednesday 14 Feb

Changeable conditions at first, with spells of mild, wet and windy weather punctuated by drier, cooler interludes. The northwest is likely to see the heaviest and most frequent or most persistent rain, while the east, and especially southeast, will tend to be drier overall. Largely cloudy with the best of any sunshine in the east. There is a chance colder conditions could then start to feature slightly more widely during the second week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather across northern parts of the UK. Cloud and rain being pushed in from the Atlantic may well be forced to track further south across the south of the country where it may remain milder. However, confidence is fairly low in this period.

Thursday 15 Feb - Thursday 29 Feb

Following on from earlier in the month, either the period will start changeable with temperatures overall around average and a northwest to southeast split in conditions, where colder conditions may have become established across the north and milder conditions with cloud and rain further south. However, through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions with winds arriving from the north. This would increase the chance of some colder spells for much of the UK, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, particularly in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 6 Feb - Thursday 15 Feb

Most likely unsettled at first for much of the UK. Turning colder across northern areas with showers, which will turn wintery at times especially over higher ground but to lower levels at times too. Cloud and rain being pushed in from the Atlantic may well be forced to track further south across the south of the country where it may remain milder but with more persistent rain, especially in the west. Exactly where the boundary between these two regimes lies is still rather uncertain at the moment. However, there is a chance of wintery conditions developing more widely across the northern edge of this boundary through the second half of next week for a time.

Friday 16 Feb - Friday 1 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty by the start of this period is it more probable that conditions will start to become drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with winds from the north. This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.

Doesn't sound to me that the Metoffice are overly confident about the cold second half to the month?  I would say this is a downgrade on recent days?

[damianslaw]

Interesting update, for the north half of UK an increased chance of a snowy February reading between the lines. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting update, for the north half of UK an increased chance of a snowy February reading between the lines. 

Indeed, for northern areas but not really suggesting nationwide cold, or at least low confidence for that scenario?  If it turns out to be merely 'less mild' for more southern regions, then there is little for them to get excited about later in the month!

[northwestsnow]

Underwhelming exeter  update..

I hope ukmo model hasn't nailed it..!!

Briefly mentions some snow and wintry showers on the coasts over next weekend before HP settles over us..

 

 

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow maybe they are just keeping everyone calm, then out of nowhere we’ll get a weather warning on Sunday for the end of next week - that’s the hope anyway

[bluearmy]

 Ali1977 that’s not how it works Ali

[Ali1977]

 bluearmy it is in my head , keeps me positive

[northwestsnow]

I'm sorry but if next weekend is a few wintry showers over the coasts then that's another in a seriously long line of let downs.

I was hoping for something a lot better in today's update ,not even potential for something noteworthy is mentioned.

12z runs will perhaps reveal more..

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow not sure what you’re expecting form a ten day outlook NWS ?

they cover the precip later next week with snowfall on n edge.  Then they cover the cold nw flow to follow. Then they go with a cool high beyond that. In feb the solar input makes that tough to be overly cold.  Looks like a broad brush approach given the uncertainty. 

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy

Ive seen Exeter reference heavy snow and accumulations at more than 10 days out before now ..

Perhaps I need to lower expectation ..

I 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 northwestsnow way too early for MetO to jump in (though I suspect it’s very much on their ‘radar’ of thoughts).  
However, 10-14 for me on track, Scotland and far north before as was likely.  Watch mode now for increasingly wintry synoptics to appear, with the south also in the mix for a ‘proper’ winter episode.

 

BFTP

Edited February 2 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Chesil View]

The envelope is still far too wide for the meto to be going gung ho in their outlooks.  As Blue implies above we need to see that envelope of outcomes narrow considerably for the meto to confidently predict widespread or even regional snowfall with greater than 80% confidence which is their warning threshold.

[blizzard81]

Northwestsnow is correct - The update is a clear downgrade but I suspect it could just be a case of clumsily worded on the part of Exeter. Unlike the previous updates, no reference now to the possibility of a clash of the atlantic low with the cold air and hence bringing wintry weather to those lucky enough to be on the boundary. This has disappeared from the update.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 7 Feb - Friday 16 Feb

Initially unsettled with cloud and rain across a still mild south whilst clearer and colder conditions across the north with some wintry showers in the far north. Rain likely pushing back north late in the week with potential for snow for a time across the northern edge of this alongside gusty winds. Through the weekend a change toward a north or north-westerly wind will bring cold conditions spreading across the UK with wintry showers across coasts but clearer inland as rain clears southeast. A further change of type expected by mid-week as high pressure becomes increasingly dominant allowing winds to drop. Temperatures potentially recovering to average with this, though any prolonged clear skies liable to bring localised frosts and fog risk.

Saturday 17 Feb - Saturday 2 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty by the start of this period is it more probable that conditions will start to become drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with winds from the north. This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[johncam]

 northwestsnow yep looking like another cold blip. Dissapointing.

[Tim Bland]

Not sure why the panic re the metro update? Chance of snow and gusty winds end of the week followed by wintry showers then longer term it’s cold with snow especially north and east they aren’t going to stick their necks out with exact locations & words like disruptive and heavy just yet expect it to upgrade over the next few days if models stay onboard and ukmo joins the party, warnings would be issued early next week 

[Swave Snow]

 northwestsnow and increased snow north and east it says 

[E17boy]

No need for panic guys the METO overal update is still sticking to the theme it will become colder next weekend and thereafter more chance of high pressure and longer term colder rather than milder conditions favourable with snow in N and E. if this said milder conditions returning then yes we would all be in a panic state but the cold theme is still there and hopefully still plenty of time for that to get upgraded next week. Let’s see how things pan out it’s a evolving situation so we don’t know yet what’s going to happen how much snow and cold is to come still unknown.

[Don]

Following on from yesterday, I agree, another underwhelming update! 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

A change to colder conditions is coming

Saturday 3 February to – Sunday 11 February

Turning chillier by the end of the coming week

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February

Mostly likely near or colder than average

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March

Colder than normal

Further ahead

We will see in the next update on Wednesday if the models and other indicators continue to depict the colder turn of events from mid-February into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Norrance]

UK long range weather forecast

Thursday 8 Feb - Saturday 17 Feb

Initially mainly cloudy, dry and cold across northern areas, milder in the south with rain increasing from the southwest. Rain pushing back north through Thursday with snow for a time across the northern edge of this likely with accumulations over high ground but also a transient threat at lower levels. Remaining unsettled Friday with further wind and rain likely, again wintry on the northern edge of this. Through the weekend a change toward a north or north-westerly wind brings cold conditions spreading across the UK with wintry showers across coasts by Sunday but clearer inland as rain clears southeast. A further change expected mid-week as high pressure becomes increasingly dominant. Temperatures potentially recovering to average with this, though any prolonged clear skies liable to bring localised frosts and fog risk.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sat 3 Feb 2024

Sunday 18 Feb - Sunday 3 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions most likely to be drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with lighter winds mainly from the north or northwest but potential for some stronger winds at times later on. This would increase the likelihood of colder conditions developing more widely for a time with potential for fog and notable frosts alongside wintry showers across the north/northwest or more widely as any isolated fronts move through later in the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 3 Feb 2024

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[Don]

 Norrance Oh dear oh dear.....

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the week ahead

Mild start
Wet and windy at times
Gradually turning colder
Some snow possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001w2t7