Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[SunnyG]

 sundog Just sayin' they are still cold just not as cold. I bet few are missing those -30c

 

Edited January 30 by SunnyG

[SunnyG]

 SollyOlly Thanks for the advice. I wasn't aware it could be done.

[SunSean]

I think Netweatherforum should be renamed to the Climatechangeforum  I challenge anyone to go 1 day without seeing a post on here panicking about a warm temperature somewhere in the world lol. Worldwide cold temps & snowfall don't seem to get much love on here surprisingly, considering the majority on this forum love cold/snow! Surprised no one has yet mentioned the record snowfall for the prefectures of Gifu & Shiga in Japan for example  Even Eastern Greece have snow at the moment- swear they get snow more than the UK 

[SunnyG]

 SunSean Fact is we have a temperate climate and extremes are the exception. It may (and does) grow milder because of global warning but it ain't gonna become suddenly extreme like some would prefer

Edited January 31 by SunnyG

[SunSean]

@SunnyG Exactly. There's a reason warm periods are called Climatic Optimum's as the Earth greens and civilization's grow but I will say no more as the climate wolves will jump on me haha.

[kold weather]

 SunSean probably because there are just a metric shedload more warm records than cold records, I think globally its currently running something like 10-12x more warm than cold so of course its going to seem like the warmer stuff is getting the attention because there just is more of it. 

Anyways hopefully February can be one of those split months because temperature wise its probably more akin to March than February for the first 7-10 days, though with probably a fair amount of cloud probably won't feel all that great even if the temperatures are well above normal.

[Metwatch]

Increasing snowfall in a few cold areas of the planet is an expected side effect from warming as more warmth holds more moisture, but in general there has been a decrease for the majority.

Also this was yesterday, nothing more needs to be said...

Edited January 31 by Metwatch

[cheese]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

probably because there are just a metric shedload more warm records than cold records, I think globally its currently running something like 10-12x more warm than cold so of course its going to seem like the warmer stuff is getting the attention because there just is more of it. 

yeah, I don't understand why this would bother anyone. Cold records are few and far between, warm records are a monthly occurrence. That's the reality of the world we live in. 

Edited January 31 by cheese

[jonboy]

I see GB news are quoting Netweater charts for the 800mile wide snow event that is coming!!!

[Methuselah]

 jonboy You've got to love GBeebies!

Edited January 31 by Methuselah

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese I feel like some can't accept that the world is undeniably getting warmer and will continue to do so. Rather bizarrely, some will latch on to quack theories about how the planet will be getting cooler when there's just no evidence that's even physically possible for a good 100,000 years. Honestly, lock 100 people in an airtight room and tell them that CO2 won't affect them. Humanity truly screwed up, but we would be here posting on this forum without the those screwups sadly.

 

Back to the weather and it's a nondescript day today. Uniform white blanket skies, gentle southerly, dry. Although it's due to rain all night, just what we need!

[raz.org.rain]

 jonboy makes you wonder which alternate reality they've leaped into, the models thread has been quiet for over a week due to how dismal the outputs have been. As far as I know, not even the fl charts are suggesting significant snow. Then again, it's GB News, they can make up any old sh**e and their readers will eat it up like a starved animal.

[CharlieBear9]

l jonboy Using Reach plc ( previously Mirror Group) publications as their source.

[raz.org.rain]

Almost spring

 

[sundog]

A bit windy up in the Faroe Islands today.

[MattStoke]

Those of whose take interest in weather records, including warm records, must be scaremongers pushing an agenda that we’re conditioned into following. At least that’s what I’m constantly and boringly being told. Couldn’t be that we just have an interest in weather, particularly on a weather forum, and that we actually understand the science but don’t necessarily agree with government action on it.

[raz.org.rain]

 MattStoke some of the tweets I've seen from weather enthusiasts... really concern me.

[MattStoke]

 raz.org.rain Some do make OTT, sensationalised claims, but not all and I’m fed up with people giving me stick for being ‘one of them’ every time I show interest in weather records. The irony is that those giving out such stick all repeat exactly the same lines whilst claiming to be free thinkers.

[CryoraptorA303]

Well, I disappear for a week and then Scotland goes and reaches 19.9°C in January. I need not say more.

There is no more to be said to those who refuse to see what is in front of them. You can lead horses to water...

One thing I haven't seen pointed out so far is the other years to have winter records this century were 2003 (January all-time tie and English record), 2019 (we all know that one) and 2022 (warmest NYD on record, plus some other scattered daily records). The two daily records we surpassed in January were both held by 2018. If you want to go further back then 1990 had the then-February record with 19.4°C at Santon Downham on the 23rd which beat the previous record set all the way back in 1891. It also generally appears more than once in daily records.

I can't help but think that winter records are a bad omen for the coming summer.

[raz.org.rain]

 MattStoke they have an irrational hatred for data unless it confirms what they want to believe in.

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 plus people keep ramping up the cold March potential, I'm fairly certain that's a harbinger for a very hot summer.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain

Looks to be a bit of a no signal comparing hot summers in this century. If you remove 2020 from the set which I can understand some would then the general indication seems to be a prolonged hot, dry period with colder than average March and record break with warmer than average.

March 1990 was also significantly warmer than average at Heathrow, even by 1991-2020 baseline, which would seem to support the correlation. 1990 would also seem to be one of the only years alongside 2022 ever recorded that had a significantly warm spell in March and also went on to have a warmer than average summer.

I would suggest 1990 and 2022 to be incredibly strong analogues which is terrifying to think about. The analogous heatwave just 32 years later reached 3.2°C higher! What would a 2003 or 2006 analogue look like ~20 years on?

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 Mentions of an early spring in the model thread towards the end of February, there's a potential cold spell to get through first. Seems that could be the theme for the second half of this winter; very mild with cold interruptions. Part of the reason I'm not convinced we'll see a significant spell of cold in February or March. Considering all of the synoptics, it's kind of astonishing that we've managed to pull off such a ridiculously mild winter. As you say, it makes you wonder if this is setting the trend for summer, and what kind of dangers that will bring.

Edited January 31 by raz.org.rain

[MP-R]

Aaaaaand back on topic…. Thank goodness January is over. Just one more winter month to go (hopefully). Might actually get treated to some sunshine tomorrow!

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain This is one of the biggest trends we've seen. This winter hasn't actually lacked cold spells particularly (though it has lacked snowy spells for most). The big issue from an overall temperature perspective has been that it has been very mild excluding the cold spells. The first 7 days of December averaged 2.2C - taken those out and the average would have increased to something in the low 8s. January has had a more prolonged cold spell from 6th-20th where every day has been near average or cold, but again the rest has been very mild.

It would very much follow the pattern if February were the same.